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2007: The Year in Tech
Friday, December 28, 2007
By Lance Ulanoff
The older I get, the faster the years go by. No matter the speed, we seem to
squeeze in the same number of interesting, crazy, and important events.
This year was no different. It would take another year to go through all the
noteworthy moments, so I'll focus on key topics and tell you what's likely
to happen in 2008.
Event: Vista Flounders
Microsoft shipped its one-year-old Windows Vista operating system in
millions of PCs, but good luck finding anyone who thinks 2007 was a good
year for Vista.
Is it a bad operating system? I don't think so, but tales of misguided folks
choosing XP over Vista or trying to roll back to the older OS worry me.
They worry Microsoft even more. The company has been forced to extend XP
support and do crazy things such as ending the practice of immediately
disabling pirated versions of Vista in favor of annoying and, I assume,
never-ending streams of pop-ups telling folks that their software is illegal
and that they can buy the real thing by following a link.
Come on, Microsoft, don't go soft on me now.
RelatedColumn Archive
2007: The Year in TechThe Holiday HDTV Buying GuideWhat Not to Buy Yourself
for ChristmasMicrosoft Trying to Port Windows XP to '$100 Laptop'The Laptop
That Could Change the WorldFull-page Tech Tuesday Archive
Prognosis: Windows XP wasn't an instant, rip-roaring success from Day One,
nor was Windows 98. Likewise, Vista will recover in 2008, and by the end of
the year people will forget why they hated it so much.
Event: iPod Touches
Apple further cemented its reputation as the king of interface and design,
releasing not one but two blockbuster music players.
The iPhone tease made us wish we could have a music-only iPod with a touch
screen and without the middling phone, and the stellar iPod Touch made that
wish a reality. In a six-month period, Apple transformed two markets and
issued a wake-up call to competitors: Get hip and show some innovation or
eat our dust.
Prognosis: Look out, Apple. The competition has nimble feet.
HTC, LG, Microsoft, SanDisk and others have already rolled out intriguing
competitors to the iPhone and - well, okay, no one competes with the iPod
Touch, yet.
I expect that Microsoft will show us something special in next year's
version of the Zune (the company is already moving in the right direction
with the latest Zunes). SanDisk also knows a thing or two about building
sexy players.
The phone industry is wide open, and products such as the LG VX10000 Voyager
prove that Apple does not own the "cool" market. 2008 will be the year that
Apple takes an Icarus-like fall back to earth.
Event: Google Expands
Google spent much of 2007 getting into everyone else's business. It's ready
to bid for the 700-MHz wireless spectrum, and it rolled out the open Android
mobile-phone development platform.
The company's also funding a renewable energy project and recently opened
its rarely used Google Talk instant-messaging platform to other chat
clients. In the video arena, Google is slowly putting its stamp on YouTube,
which it purchased in 2006.
Prognosis: Google will win that wireless bid and, with partners, start
rolling out Android-based phones, though none will be the dreamed-about
Google Phone. Google will never produce a phone of its own. Expect more
Google apps, innovations, and non-search-related activity.
The next big move for this company with cash to burn? Ownership of a major
media company.
Event: Facebook Blows Up
The once college-kid-only social-networking site opened to the great, aging
masses (including me) and blew up (in a good way). I get more Facebook
updates and requests in a given day than I get for most others in a month.
Microsoft ponied up millions for a piece of the suddenly $15
billion-company.
By offering users a structured interface and unlimited tools for connecting
and learning more about one another, Facebook did what MySpace couldn't: It
interested adults who couldn't figure out the mess that is any given MySpace
page.
Prognosis: The "It" thing of the social-networking market will fade in
2008 - just as Second Life and Friendster did before it.
It's not that I don't like Frien - er - Facebook; it's just that
social-networking tools thrive on the extreme heat of attention and wither
when they're neglected.
All those Facebook notices will soon become a burden and then members will
create mailbox rules that auto-direct them to a folder. Then they'll start
ignoring that folder. Soon they'll stop visiting. My own Facebook visits
have already begun to decline.
Event: Intel Trumps AMD
Intel and AMD seemed to really duke it out over the first half of this
decade, but something changed in 2007.
Maybe Intel changed. It started in 2006, with Core Duo, followed by Core 2
Duo, Centrino Core 2 Duo, and Quad Core technologies in 2007.
AMD, on the other hand, seemed to be moving in slow motion. There are still
AMD-based systems rolling onto store shelves and consumer desktops. AMD's
allure had been great performance and excellent prices, but AMD CPUs are no
longer that much cheaper than Intel's offerings.
People (like our own ExtremeTech Editor Loyd Case) are writing obituaries
for AMD. Is that the future?
Prognosis: Rumors of AMD's demise are greatly exaggerated. The company has
some intriguing technologies in the wings: Barcelona (for servers) and
Phenom. We're testing Phenom now. These new chips need to deliver or 2008
could be a very bad year for AMD.
Event: Leopard Shows Its Spots
Apple released Tiger's successor, Leopard. Reviews were good, but,
apparently, 2007 just isn't the year to show love for new operating systems.
There have been reports of dissatisfaction. No, not on the same level as
with Vista, but it does show that Apple's not perfect.
Prognosis: The rule with Apple operating systems has always been "Never
adopt point-oh technologies." Leopard has already had a point upgrade, so
soon all will be right with the world.
Event: Daylight Saving Goes Green, Makes Everyone Crazy
Going green isn't easy. A couple of years ago, the U.S. government took the
proactive step of passing a law to change daylight saving time so that it
begins earlier in the spring and ends later in the fall.
Why? So that Americans would have more daylight hours and burn less energy.
Great idea, except that everyone's technology was programmed to change on
the original daylight-saving days. Microsoft sent out patches. Most worked,
but some didn't.
Still, there were no patches for microwaves, alarm clocks, and countless
other gadgets. People's Outlook calendars went kaplooey, and there was
widespread grumpiness - twice (in March and November).
Prognosis: We should be used to the new schedule by next year, but older
systems and countless gadgets will still not be with the program. Such is
the price of going green.
Event: Viruses Keep Quiet and Phishes Get Smarter
Remember virus attacks? They were scary things that happened with alarming
frequency.
"Love bug," "SoBig," "Melissa" - there were so many odd and scary names. So
much work to protect our PCs.
Where have all the good viruses gone? Well, the whole game changed, not just
in 2007, but a few years back.
It was in 2007, however, that the bold new economic strategy/motive for
attacks was cemented.
It used to be that viruses simply harmed your PC (and others around it),
causing random mayhem. Now Trojan horses and spyware take control of PCs for
a greater, scarier purpose: They often work together with other bots in
other infected machines.
Sometimes the only way you know you're infected is when your machine starts
to slow down. Having an army of PCs doing your bidding is much more powerful
and worrisome than one wonky, infected PC in the office.
Meanwhile, phishes, which don't even use code to do their dirty work,
proliferated in 2007.
Fortunately, all major security suites got with the program and released
updates that can actually prevent you from harming yourself.
Prognosis: Viruses will remain a threat, but a minor one compared with
"crimeware," Trojans and, especially, phishes. Slowly but steadily, the
computing public will continue to awaken to the ever-present danger of
e-mails from their "banks," "auction sites" and "social networks."
Event: Wii Takes Over
In 2006, the Nintendo Wii shocked the gaming world by stealing virtually all
of the spotlight from the new Sony PlayStation 3 and the one-year-old Xbox
360.
Nintendo, oddly, never recovered from the initial overwhelming demand for
this highly interactive gaming system, and in 2007 supplies remained scarce.
Even in this holiday season, consumers report difficulty finding the
console.
Meanwhile, Microsoft revived the Xbox 360 platform with "Halo 3"'s perfectly
timed release.
Prognosis: Sony's PS3 is starting to show signs of life this holiday season,
and 2008 could prove a strong year for the much-maligned console. Xbox 360
will continue along nicely, and Nintendo will finally catch up on Wii
production - just as demand subsides. The Wii will be the bargain game
platform of the 2008 holiday buying season.
Event: Retail Rises from the Dead
Remember how we thought that eventually everyone would shop online and
brick-and-mortar stores would crumble like neglected sand castles?
In 2007 Acer reaffirmed retail for itself and its newly acquired Gateway
(and eMachines) brand, HP surged in in-store sales, and Dell moved into Best
Buy.
Prognosis: Dell, Gateway, HP, and others will simplify the online shopping
process and make hard connections to your nearest brick-and-mortar, so that
you can configure online and buy local.
Event: The HD DVD vs. Blu-ray Battle Stalls
The seesaw battle between the Sony and Toshiba camps resulted in no true
gains for either side. Both have committed partners and strong sales for
certain titles, but nobody ran away with the HD crown.
Finally, the two sides settled into a prolonged state of inertia. They're
moving forward, but no one knows how to end the war, and neither side is
prepared to give an inch.
Prognosis: 2008 will mark the year we stop caring about Blu-ray or HD DVD.
There will be a proliferation of dual-format players in PCs and set-tops.
Consumers will buy whichever format they prefer (soon discerning that
there's no appreciable difference), and the world will move on.
In 2009, the teams will merge and start selling dual-format discs. By 2010,
there'll be one HD optical disc format with an entirely new name. I vote for
"H-ray."
2007: The Year in Tech
Friday, December 28, 2007
By Lance Ulanoff
The older I get, the faster the years go by. No matter the speed, we seem to
squeeze in the same number of interesting, crazy, and important events.
This year was no different. It would take another year to go through all the
noteworthy moments, so I'll focus on key topics and tell you what's likely
to happen in 2008.
Event: Vista Flounders
Microsoft shipped its one-year-old Windows Vista operating system in
millions of PCs, but good luck finding anyone who thinks 2007 was a good
year for Vista.
Is it a bad operating system? I don't think so, but tales of misguided folks
choosing XP over Vista or trying to roll back to the older OS worry me.
They worry Microsoft even more. The company has been forced to extend XP
support and do crazy things such as ending the practice of immediately
disabling pirated versions of Vista in favor of annoying and, I assume,
never-ending streams of pop-ups telling folks that their software is illegal
and that they can buy the real thing by following a link.
Come on, Microsoft, don't go soft on me now.
RelatedColumn Archive
2007: The Year in TechThe Holiday HDTV Buying GuideWhat Not to Buy Yourself
for ChristmasMicrosoft Trying to Port Windows XP to '$100 Laptop'The Laptop
That Could Change the WorldFull-page Tech Tuesday Archive
Prognosis: Windows XP wasn't an instant, rip-roaring success from Day One,
nor was Windows 98. Likewise, Vista will recover in 2008, and by the end of
the year people will forget why they hated it so much.
Event: iPod Touches
Apple further cemented its reputation as the king of interface and design,
releasing not one but two blockbuster music players.
The iPhone tease made us wish we could have a music-only iPod with a touch
screen and without the middling phone, and the stellar iPod Touch made that
wish a reality. In a six-month period, Apple transformed two markets and
issued a wake-up call to competitors: Get hip and show some innovation or
eat our dust.
Prognosis: Look out, Apple. The competition has nimble feet.
HTC, LG, Microsoft, SanDisk and others have already rolled out intriguing
competitors to the iPhone and - well, okay, no one competes with the iPod
Touch, yet.
I expect that Microsoft will show us something special in next year's
version of the Zune (the company is already moving in the right direction
with the latest Zunes). SanDisk also knows a thing or two about building
sexy players.
The phone industry is wide open, and products such as the LG VX10000 Voyager
prove that Apple does not own the "cool" market. 2008 will be the year that
Apple takes an Icarus-like fall back to earth.
Event: Google Expands
Google spent much of 2007 getting into everyone else's business. It's ready
to bid for the 700-MHz wireless spectrum, and it rolled out the open Android
mobile-phone development platform.
The company's also funding a renewable energy project and recently opened
its rarely used Google Talk instant-messaging platform to other chat
clients. In the video arena, Google is slowly putting its stamp on YouTube,
which it purchased in 2006.
Prognosis: Google will win that wireless bid and, with partners, start
rolling out Android-based phones, though none will be the dreamed-about
Google Phone. Google will never produce a phone of its own. Expect more
Google apps, innovations, and non-search-related activity.
The next big move for this company with cash to burn? Ownership of a major
media company.
Event: Facebook Blows Up
The once college-kid-only social-networking site opened to the great, aging
masses (including me) and blew up (in a good way). I get more Facebook
updates and requests in a given day than I get for most others in a month.
Microsoft ponied up millions for a piece of the suddenly $15
billion-company.
By offering users a structured interface and unlimited tools for connecting
and learning more about one another, Facebook did what MySpace couldn't: It
interested adults who couldn't figure out the mess that is any given MySpace
page.
Prognosis: The "It" thing of the social-networking market will fade in
2008 - just as Second Life and Friendster did before it.
It's not that I don't like Frien - er - Facebook; it's just that
social-networking tools thrive on the extreme heat of attention and wither
when they're neglected.
All those Facebook notices will soon become a burden and then members will
create mailbox rules that auto-direct them to a folder. Then they'll start
ignoring that folder. Soon they'll stop visiting. My own Facebook visits
have already begun to decline.
Event: Intel Trumps AMD
Intel and AMD seemed to really duke it out over the first half of this
decade, but something changed in 2007.
Maybe Intel changed. It started in 2006, with Core Duo, followed by Core 2
Duo, Centrino Core 2 Duo, and Quad Core technologies in 2007.
AMD, on the other hand, seemed to be moving in slow motion. There are still
AMD-based systems rolling onto store shelves and consumer desktops. AMD's
allure had been great performance and excellent prices, but AMD CPUs are no
longer that much cheaper than Intel's offerings.
People (like our own ExtremeTech Editor Loyd Case) are writing obituaries
for AMD. Is that the future?
Prognosis: Rumors of AMD's demise are greatly exaggerated. The company has
some intriguing technologies in the wings: Barcelona (for servers) and
Phenom. We're testing Phenom now. These new chips need to deliver or 2008
could be a very bad year for AMD.
Event: Leopard Shows Its Spots
Apple released Tiger's successor, Leopard. Reviews were good, but,
apparently, 2007 just isn't the year to show love for new operating systems.
There have been reports of dissatisfaction. No, not on the same level as
with Vista, but it does show that Apple's not perfect.
Prognosis: The rule with Apple operating systems has always been "Never
adopt point-oh technologies." Leopard has already had a point upgrade, so
soon all will be right with the world.
Event: Daylight Saving Goes Green, Makes Everyone Crazy
Going green isn't easy. A couple of years ago, the U.S. government took the
proactive step of passing a law to change daylight saving time so that it
begins earlier in the spring and ends later in the fall.
Why? So that Americans would have more daylight hours and burn less energy.
Great idea, except that everyone's technology was programmed to change on
the original daylight-saving days. Microsoft sent out patches. Most worked,
but some didn't.
Still, there were no patches for microwaves, alarm clocks, and countless
other gadgets. People's Outlook calendars went kaplooey, and there was
widespread grumpiness - twice (in March and November).
Prognosis: We should be used to the new schedule by next year, but older
systems and countless gadgets will still not be with the program. Such is
the price of going green.
Event: Viruses Keep Quiet and Phishes Get Smarter
Remember virus attacks? They were scary things that happened with alarming
frequency.
"Love bug," "SoBig," "Melissa" - there were so many odd and scary names. So
much work to protect our PCs.
Where have all the good viruses gone? Well, the whole game changed, not just
in 2007, but a few years back.
It was in 2007, however, that the bold new economic strategy/motive for
attacks was cemented.
It used to be that viruses simply harmed your PC (and others around it),
causing random mayhem. Now Trojan horses and spyware take control of PCs for
a greater, scarier purpose: They often work together with other bots in
other infected machines.
Sometimes the only way you know you're infected is when your machine starts
to slow down. Having an army of PCs doing your bidding is much more powerful
and worrisome than one wonky, infected PC in the office.
Meanwhile, phishes, which don't even use code to do their dirty work,
proliferated in 2007.
Fortunately, all major security suites got with the program and released
updates that can actually prevent you from harming yourself.
Prognosis: Viruses will remain a threat, but a minor one compared with
"crimeware," Trojans and, especially, phishes. Slowly but steadily, the
computing public will continue to awaken to the ever-present danger of
e-mails from their "banks," "auction sites" and "social networks."
Event: Wii Takes Over
In 2006, the Nintendo Wii shocked the gaming world by stealing virtually all
of the spotlight from the new Sony PlayStation 3 and the one-year-old Xbox
360.
Nintendo, oddly, never recovered from the initial overwhelming demand for
this highly interactive gaming system, and in 2007 supplies remained scarce.
Even in this holiday season, consumers report difficulty finding the
console.
Meanwhile, Microsoft revived the Xbox 360 platform with "Halo 3"'s perfectly
timed release.
Prognosis: Sony's PS3 is starting to show signs of life this holiday season,
and 2008 could prove a strong year for the much-maligned console. Xbox 360
will continue along nicely, and Nintendo will finally catch up on Wii
production - just as demand subsides. The Wii will be the bargain game
platform of the 2008 holiday buying season.
Event: Retail Rises from the Dead
Remember how we thought that eventually everyone would shop online and
brick-and-mortar stores would crumble like neglected sand castles?
In 2007 Acer reaffirmed retail for itself and its newly acquired Gateway
(and eMachines) brand, HP surged in in-store sales, and Dell moved into Best
Buy.
Prognosis: Dell, Gateway, HP, and others will simplify the online shopping
process and make hard connections to your nearest brick-and-mortar, so that
you can configure online and buy local.
Event: The HD DVD vs. Blu-ray Battle Stalls
The seesaw battle between the Sony and Toshiba camps resulted in no true
gains for either side. Both have committed partners and strong sales for
certain titles, but nobody ran away with the HD crown.
Finally, the two sides settled into a prolonged state of inertia. They're
moving forward, but no one knows how to end the war, and neither side is
prepared to give an inch.
Prognosis: 2008 will mark the year we stop caring about Blu-ray or HD DVD.
There will be a proliferation of dual-format players in PCs and set-tops.
Consumers will buy whichever format they prefer (soon discerning that
there's no appreciable difference), and the world will move on.
In 2009, the teams will merge and start selling dual-format discs. By 2010,
there'll be one HD optical disc format with an entirely new name. I vote for
"H-ray."