H
Harry Dope
Guest
By winning back unhappy GOP voters, McCain makes it a race
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers
WASHINGTON (AP) - Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the
White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP
voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party
last fall.
Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential
candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their
party's nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo news poll
released Thursday. Just five months ago - before either party had winnowed
its field - the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat
over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points.
Also helping the Arizona senator close the gap: Peoples' opinions of Hillary
Rodham Clinton have soured slightly, while their views of Barack Obama have
improved though less impressively than McCain's.
The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to
his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats
snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight.
David Mason of Richmond, Va., is typical of the voters McCain has gained
since last November, when the 46-year-old personal trainer was undecided.
Mason calls himself an independent and voted in 2004 for President Bush,
whom he considers a strong leader but a disappointment due to the "no-win
situation" in Iraq.
"It's not that I'm that much in favor of McCain, it's the other two are
turning me off," Mason said of Clinton and Obama, the senators from New York
and Illinois, in explaining his move toward McCain. As for the Republican's
experiences as a Vietnam War prisoner and in the Senate, Mason said, "All
he's been through is an asset."
By tracking the same group of roughly 2,000 people throughout the campaign,
the AP-Yahoo poll can gauge how individual views are evolving. What's clear
is that some Republican-leaning voters who backed Bush in 2004 but lost
enthusiasm for him are returning to the GOP fold _ along with a smaller but
significant number of Democrats who have come to dislike their party's two
contenders.
The findings of the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, provide a
preview of one of this fall's battlegrounds. Though some unhappy Republicans
will doubtless stay with McCain, both groups are teeming with centrist swing
voters who will be targeted by both parties.
The poll shows that McCain's appeal has grown since November by more than
the Democrats' has dwindled. McCain gets about 10 percentage points more now
than a generic Republican candidate got last fall; Obama and Clinton get
about 5 points less than a nameless Democrat got then.
Underlining McCain's burgeoning popularity, in November about four in 10
considered McCain likeable, decisive, strong and honest while about half do
now. Obama is seen as more likeable and stronger now but his numbers for
honesty and decisiveness have remained flat, while Clinton's scores for
likeability and honesty have dropped slightly.
"You can't trust Hillary and Obama's too young," said Pauline Holsinger, 60,
a janitorial worker in Pensacola, Fla., now backing McCain who preferred an
unnamed Democrat last fall. "I like him better, he's more knowledgeable
about the war" in Iraq.
Voters at this stage in a campaign commonly focus more on candidates'
personal qualities. That usually changes as the general election approaches
and they pay more attention to issues and partisan loyalty - meaning that
McCain's prospects could fade at a time when the public is deeply unhappy
with the war, the staggering economy and Bush.
For now, more than one in 10 who weren't backing the unnamed Republican
candidate in last November's survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly
offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or
Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the
generic GOP candidate last November.
Among people who have moved toward McCain, about two-thirds are discontented
Bush voters, with many calling themselves independents but leaning
Republican.
About half of this group say they are conservative, yet their views on
issues are more moderate than many in the party, with some opposing the war
in Iraq. They have favorable but not intensely enthusiastic views of McCain
_ for example, two-thirds find him likeable while far fewer find him
compassionate or refreshing.
"He's known, he's a veteran," said David Tucker, a retired Air Force
technician from Alexandria, La., and Bush voter who was undecided last
November but has ruled out Obama and Clinton. "I understand him better."
Around a third of the voters newly supporting McCain lean Democratic and
mostly backed Democrat John Kerry in 2004. They are moderates who disapprove
of Bush and the war in Iraq, but find McCain likeable, much more so than
they did last November.
Many McCain-backing Democrats express one consistent concern about McCain -
his age.
"Let's face it, we're not getting any younger," said retired accountant
Sheldon Rothman of Queens, N.Y., who like McCain is 71. "There are too many
imponderables when you get to that age, especially with the stress of the
presidency."
Whether those now switching to McCain will stay that way once the Democrats
choose a candidate is what the fall campaign will be about.
"McCain has a history of doing well with independent voters," said GOP
pollster David Winston. He said voters' preference for an unnamed Democratic
candidate but McCain's strong performance against Obama and Clinton means
"Democrats have an advantage their candidates are not taking advantage of."
Democratic pollster Alan Secrest said the contrasting numbers mean that
while the voters' overall mood favors Democrats, they are still taking the
measure of Clinton and Obama.
"The Democrats will have to earn their way this fall," he said.
The AP-Yahoo survey of 1,844 adults was conducted from April 2-14 and had an
overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling
error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of
sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which
initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and
followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no
Internet access were given it for free.
- AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
--
"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno."
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers
WASHINGTON (AP) - Republicans are no longer underdogs in the race for the
White House. To pull that off, John McCain has attracted disgruntled GOP
voters, independents and even some moderate Democrats who shunned his party
last fall.
Partly thanks to an increasingly likable image, the Republican presidential
candidate has pulled even with the two Democrats still brawling for their
party's nomination, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo news poll
released Thursday. Just five months ago - before either party had winnowed
its field - the survey showed people preferred sending an unnamed Democrat
over a Republican to the White House by 13 percentage points.
Also helping the Arizona senator close the gap: Peoples' opinions of Hillary
Rodham Clinton have soured slightly, while their views of Barack Obama have
improved though less impressively than McCain's.
The survey suggests that those switching to McCain are largely attuned to
his personal qualities and McCain may be benefiting as the two Democrats
snipe at each other during their prolonged nomination fight.
David Mason of Richmond, Va., is typical of the voters McCain has gained
since last November, when the 46-year-old personal trainer was undecided.
Mason calls himself an independent and voted in 2004 for President Bush,
whom he considers a strong leader but a disappointment due to the "no-win
situation" in Iraq.
"It's not that I'm that much in favor of McCain, it's the other two are
turning me off," Mason said of Clinton and Obama, the senators from New York
and Illinois, in explaining his move toward McCain. As for the Republican's
experiences as a Vietnam War prisoner and in the Senate, Mason said, "All
he's been through is an asset."
By tracking the same group of roughly 2,000 people throughout the campaign,
the AP-Yahoo poll can gauge how individual views are evolving. What's clear
is that some Republican-leaning voters who backed Bush in 2004 but lost
enthusiasm for him are returning to the GOP fold _ along with a smaller but
significant number of Democrats who have come to dislike their party's two
contenders.
The findings of the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, provide a
preview of one of this fall's battlegrounds. Though some unhappy Republicans
will doubtless stay with McCain, both groups are teeming with centrist swing
voters who will be targeted by both parties.
The poll shows that McCain's appeal has grown since November by more than
the Democrats' has dwindled. McCain gets about 10 percentage points more now
than a generic Republican candidate got last fall; Obama and Clinton get
about 5 points less than a nameless Democrat got then.
Underlining McCain's burgeoning popularity, in November about four in 10
considered McCain likeable, decisive, strong and honest while about half do
now. Obama is seen as more likeable and stronger now but his numbers for
honesty and decisiveness have remained flat, while Clinton's scores for
likeability and honesty have dropped slightly.
"You can't trust Hillary and Obama's too young," said Pauline Holsinger, 60,
a janitorial worker in Pensacola, Fla., now backing McCain who preferred an
unnamed Democrat last fall. "I like him better, he's more knowledgeable
about the war" in Iraq.
Voters at this stage in a campaign commonly focus more on candidates'
personal qualities. That usually changes as the general election approaches
and they pay more attention to issues and partisan loyalty - meaning that
McCain's prospects could fade at a time when the public is deeply unhappy
with the war, the staggering economy and Bush.
For now, more than one in 10 who weren't backing the unnamed Republican
candidate in last November's survey are supporting McCain, a shift partly
offset by a smaller number of former undecideds now embracing Obama or
Clinton. Of those now backing McCain, about one-third did not support the
generic GOP candidate last November.
Among people who have moved toward McCain, about two-thirds are discontented
Bush voters, with many calling themselves independents but leaning
Republican.
About half of this group say they are conservative, yet their views on
issues are more moderate than many in the party, with some opposing the war
in Iraq. They have favorable but not intensely enthusiastic views of McCain
_ for example, two-thirds find him likeable while far fewer find him
compassionate or refreshing.
"He's known, he's a veteran," said David Tucker, a retired Air Force
technician from Alexandria, La., and Bush voter who was undecided last
November but has ruled out Obama and Clinton. "I understand him better."
Around a third of the voters newly supporting McCain lean Democratic and
mostly backed Democrat John Kerry in 2004. They are moderates who disapprove
of Bush and the war in Iraq, but find McCain likeable, much more so than
they did last November.
Many McCain-backing Democrats express one consistent concern about McCain -
his age.
"Let's face it, we're not getting any younger," said retired accountant
Sheldon Rothman of Queens, N.Y., who like McCain is 71. "There are too many
imponderables when you get to that age, especially with the stress of the
presidency."
Whether those now switching to McCain will stay that way once the Democrats
choose a candidate is what the fall campaign will be about.
"McCain has a history of doing well with independent voters," said GOP
pollster David Winston. He said voters' preference for an unnamed Democratic
candidate but McCain's strong performance against Obama and Clinton means
"Democrats have an advantage their candidates are not taking advantage of."
Democratic pollster Alan Secrest said the contrasting numbers mean that
while the voters' overall mood favors Democrats, they are still taking the
measure of Clinton and Obama.
"The Democrats will have to earn their way this fall," he said.
The AP-Yahoo survey of 1,844 adults was conducted from April 2-14 and had an
overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling
error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of
sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which
initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and
followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no
Internet access were given it for free.
- AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
--
"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno."
