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http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/bill_clinton_carolina/2008/01/27/67785.html

 

Bill Clinton Affected S.C. Race Marginally

 

Sunday, January 27, 2008

 

For all the sharp-elbowed campaigning he did for his wife in South Carolina,

Bill Clinton couldn't keep voters from abandoning her in the state's

Democratic presidential primary, according to exit polls.

 

Barack Obama's win Saturday was the most one-sided drubbing he has delivered

to Hillary Rodham Clinton thus far. It came despite several days of

campaigning by the former president, who played the role of aggressive

attacker in a state with large numbers of blacks, with whom he has long been

highly popular.

 

In exit polls of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the

television networks, almost six in 10 Democrats said Bill Clinton's

campaigning had played an important role in deciding their vote. Yet these

voters still preferred Obama over Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37

percent, with another 15 percent supporting former North Carolina Sen. John

Edwards.

 

In other words, of those voters who said Bill Clinton affected their

decision, nearly two out of three didn't choose his spouse.

 

Since Hillary Clinton lost to Obama by an overall 2-to-1 margin in South

Carolina, she clearly did better among people who said her husband's

campaigning affected their decision. But she still lost with that group,

numbers that seem to indicate a dismissal of the former president's efforts.

 

A closer look at the figures along racial lines is instructive because race

was a major factor in South Carolina.

 

The Clinton and Obama campaigns each accused the other of fanning racial

flames, and at one appearance Bill Clinton said he'd been told his wife

would not win because the candidates were getting votes "because of their

race or gender."

 

In the end Obama, the Illinois senator whose father was Kenyan and his

mother white, won nearly eight in 10 black votes and about one-fourth of

whites'. Blacks made up 55 percent of the day's overall vote.

 

Slightly more than half of white voters said Bill Clinton's efforts affected

their decision. Among that group, about half picked Hillary Clinton - a good

showing, but not overwhelming. Edwards, the other white candidate, got

one-third of those votes, and Obama got about one-fifth.

 

About the same share of blacks, or 59 percent, said Bill Clinton had an

impact on their choice. Seven in 10 of them backed Obama, while about

one-fourth opted for Hillary Clinton.

 

Another way of trying to gauge Bill Clinton's impact is looking at when

people decided whom to support. Some of his highest profile appearances and

comments came during the campaign's final week, and 31 percent of voters

overall said that is when they chose their candidate.

 

In that group of late deciders, 20 percent picked Hillary Clinton, 27

percent Edwards and 52 percent Obama. For those deciding during the final

three days or even the last day, the percentages were roughly the same.

 

That means people who made up their minds just before voting didn't pick

candidates dramatically differently than the earliest deciders. If anything,

they were slightly less likely to pick Clinton than later deciders were.

 

Among whites who decided in the last week, half went to Edwards - maybe

reflecting last Monday's debate in which Obama and Hillary Clinton exchanged

harsh personal swipes and Edwards sought to play the role of the campaign's

wise grown-up. Eight in 10 late-deciding blacks supported Obama.

 

The poll was conducted for AP and the television networks by Edison Media

Research and Mitofsky International as Democratic voters exited 35 sites in

South Carolina. It involved interviews with 1,905 Democratic primary voters,

and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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