Buckwheat Drawing Huge Jaw-Dropping Crowds at Stop After Stop, Hitlary Draws a Few Gawkers

http://www.newsmax.com/politics/measuring_enthusiasm/2008/02/14/72754.html

Obama's Crowds Are Awesome for So Early

Thursday, February 14, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama is attracting jaw-dropping crowds at stop after

stop. Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton would be thrilled with her own

big turnouts except that his are so much bigger.

Political insiders are unsure what to make of it all: No one has seen these

kinds of crowds so long before Election Day.

Do to-the-rafters audiences in the primaries mean Obama will win the

Democratic nomination? Or do they simply represent highly motivated fans who

eventually could yield to a quieter but larger number of voters for Clinton?

Or for the Republican nominee in November?

While some major Republican candidates were struggling to draw 800 people

just before the Feb. 5 primaries, Obama spoke before 54,000 on a three-stop

Saturday. That was approaching the population of Wilmington, Del., where he

drew 20,000 the next day, Super Bowl Sunday.

Within 24 hours last weekend, Clinton drew 45,000 people in three cities in

Virginia and Maryland.

The crowds were reflected in the turnout on primary day, numbers that warm

the hearts of Democrats looking ahead to November and cause consternation in

the GOP. In Virginia, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn't won in

four decades, Democrats outnumbered Republicans at the polls by two-to-one,

970,393 to 481,970, and Obama got 623,141 votes.

In arena after arena, fire marshals turn people away. Obama briefly speaks

to the disappointed groups, in overflow rooms or freezing parking lots,

before addressing the big crowds inside.

Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin said the last politician to draw

such "fervent, huge crowds" was Robert F. Kennedy, in 1968. Unlike Obama,

she said, Kennedy started with a famous name and legacy, "which makes this

even more extraordinary."

Obama is attracting these crowds without help from big-name celebrities, so

they differ from the 30,000-person December event in South Carolina, when

Oprah Winfrey joined him.

Clinton has drawn impressive crowds too. They include 10,000 people in San

Diego and another 10,000 in San Jose, shortly before she carried California

on Feb. 5.

On Tuesday night, as Obama was sweeping the Virginia, Maryland and District

of Columbia primaries, 12,000 people came to see Clinton in El Paso, Texas.

Obama's crowd that night in Madison, Wis., was more than 17,000, with some

turned away.

When the two Democrats campaign in proximity, Obama's crowds usually

overwhelm hers. More than 17,000 people packed Seattle's Key Arena to hear

Obama on Feb. 8, while 3,000 others were shut out. The same day in Tacoma,

Wash., a Clinton rally drew about 6,000. Her audience in Seattle the night

before was 5,000.

On Feb. 9, about 7,000 people came to see Obama in Bangor, Maine, (although

only 5,700 could fit in the gym). In the nearby college town of Orono,

Clinton was drawing about 2,000.

Republican John McCain, who regularly draws crowds of 1,000 to 1,200, has

noticed Obama's drawing power.

"I would remind you, and I don't mean to diminish his success, but Howard

Dean used to get really big turnouts as well," McCain told reporters last

week, referring to the Democrat who flamed out after causing excitement in

the 2004 race. "If I had a crowd like that, I'd be thrilled. I congratulate

him for attracting that number of people."

Republican Mike Huckabee generally gets smaller crowds, around 500 to 700.

A crucial question is whether big political crowds point to big voter

turnouts. Obama hopes so, and recent trends encourage his camp.

Democrats have swarmed to the early primaries, often outnumbering

Republicans in regions where the opposite usually happens. Democrats

exceeded Republicans in same-day primaries held this year in GOP-leaning New

Hampshire, Oklahoma and Tennessee _ all won by Clinton _ and in South

Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana, won by Obama.

In the Jan. 26 South Carolina Democratic primary, Obama clobbered Clinton

and John Edwards, winning more votes than were cast for all the Democrats

combined in the contested 2004 primary. In Missouri, a battleground state

narrowly won by Obama this month, more than 820,000 Democrats voted,

compared with about 585,000 Republicans.

It is not simply Obama's crowd numbers that dazzle, but also the fervor.

Many people, women in particular, are excited about the prospects of Clinton

becoming the first female president. But many of Obama's listeners _ black,

white, young, old _ seem almost in awe, and they often talk of being part of

history.

Some shout "I love you" as he talks. A few quietly weep. When he takes the

stage, the roar is often deafening.

Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat covered both candidates and tried to

describe the difference. In a Feb. 9 article he said Clinton "was

impressive" at her Seattle rally, "with a speech packed with policy

specifics and a certain intangible steeliness that signals she's got what it

takes to be president."

But "the Obamapalooza," he wrote, "is a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle."

The Bangor Daily News reported that in the past 20 years only a rock group

"and illustrious Maine basketball players" have filled the Bangor Auditorium

as Obama did Saturday. "The audience gave riotous applause and pounded their

seats when Obama mentioned his initial opposition to the war in Iraq," it

reported.

Clinton and Obama regularly hold round-table talks and other small events

between their rallies, and those sometimes generate valuable local news

coverage. But it is the big-arena shows that draw the most attention.

Does that mean he is pulling away from Clinton?

"We don't know," said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, an expert on political

communication at the University of Pennsylvania. In 1964, she said,

Republican Barry Goldwater thought he would beat President Johnson because

he often drew bigger crowds.

"Sometimes a higher percentage of your base turns out to see you because

they're highly motivated," Jamieson said, which helps explain Goldwater's

landslide loss. The danger for Clinton, she said, is if journalists conclude

that Obama's big crowds indicate a universal voter preference, which could

become "a self-fulfilling prophecy" through misleading reporting.

Perhaps Clinton will shock Obama in Wisconsin next week, or turn the tide

later in Ohio, Texas or Pennsylvania. For now, however, Obama's huge crowds

are intoxicating some politicians, such as Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md.

"This is not a campaign for the presidency of the United States," he shouted

while introducing Obama in Baltimore last Monday. "This is a movement to

change the world."