H
Harry Hope
Guest
From The Associated Press, 11/3/07:
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-climate-security,0,7514179.story
Think Tank: Climate Affects Security
By ARTHUR MAX | Associated Press Writer
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands -
Climate change could be one of the greatest national security
challenges ever faced by U.S. policy makers, according to a new joint
study by two U.S. think tanks.
The report, to be released Monday, raises the threat of dramatic
population migrations, wars over water and resources, and a
realignment of power among nations.
During the last two decades, climate scientists have underestimated
how quickly the Earth is changing -- perhaps to avoid being branded as
"alarmists," the study said.
But policy planners should count on climate-induced instability in
critical parts of the world within 30 years.
The report was compiled by a panel of security and climate
specialists, sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International
Studies and the Center for a New American Security.
The Associated Press received an advance copy.
Climate change is likely to breed new conflicts, but it already is
magnifying existing problems, from the desertification of Darfur and
competition for water in the Middle East to the disruptive monsoons in
Asia which increase the pressure for land, the report said.
It examined three scenarios, ranging from the consequences of an
expected temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040, to
the catastrophic implications of a 10-degree rise by the end of the
century.
At the very least, the report said, the U.S. can expect more
population migrations, both internally and from across its borders;
a proliferation of diseases;
greater conflict in weak states, especially in Africa where climates
will change most drastically;
and a restructuring in global power in line with the accessibility of
natural resources.
Left unchecked, "the collapse and chaos associated with extreme
climate change futures would destabilize virtually every aspect of
modern life," said the report, comparing the potential outcome with
the Cold War doomsday scenarios of a nuclear holocaust.
"Climate change has the potential to be one of the greatest national
security challenges that this or any other generation of policy makers
is likely to confront," said the report.
Among its contributors were former CIA director James Woolsey, Nobel
laureate Thomas Schelling, National Academy of Sciences President
Ralph Cicerone, President Bill Clinton's former chief of staff John
Podesta and former Vice President Al Gore's security adviser Leon
Fuerth.
The report listed 10 implications of climate change that policy makers
should consider,
including rising tensions between rich and poor nations,
the backlash resulting from massive migrations,
health problems partly caused by water shortages and crop failures,
and concerns over nuclear proliferation as nations increasingly rely
on nuclear energy.
The global balance of power will shift unpredictably as trade patterns
change, it said.
China's importance in the climate equation will grow as it increases
emissions of greenhouse gases, and Russia's influence will increase
alongside its exports of natural gas, the report said.
Attention began to focus earlier this year on the strategic
consequences of climate change.
But the latest report, more than 100 pages long, is among the most
detailed analyses published so far on security aspects.
Last April, a a panel of retired top-ranking military officers issued
the alarm that global warming was a "serious security threat" likely
to aggravate terrorism and world instability.
The Office of the National Intelligence Director said the following
month it has begun working on an assessment of the national security
implications of climate change.
___________________________________________________
Harry
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-climate-security,0,7514179.story
Think Tank: Climate Affects Security
By ARTHUR MAX | Associated Press Writer
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands -
Climate change could be one of the greatest national security
challenges ever faced by U.S. policy makers, according to a new joint
study by two U.S. think tanks.
The report, to be released Monday, raises the threat of dramatic
population migrations, wars over water and resources, and a
realignment of power among nations.
During the last two decades, climate scientists have underestimated
how quickly the Earth is changing -- perhaps to avoid being branded as
"alarmists," the study said.
But policy planners should count on climate-induced instability in
critical parts of the world within 30 years.
The report was compiled by a panel of security and climate
specialists, sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International
Studies and the Center for a New American Security.
The Associated Press received an advance copy.
Climate change is likely to breed new conflicts, but it already is
magnifying existing problems, from the desertification of Darfur and
competition for water in the Middle East to the disruptive monsoons in
Asia which increase the pressure for land, the report said.
It examined three scenarios, ranging from the consequences of an
expected temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040, to
the catastrophic implications of a 10-degree rise by the end of the
century.
At the very least, the report said, the U.S. can expect more
population migrations, both internally and from across its borders;
a proliferation of diseases;
greater conflict in weak states, especially in Africa where climates
will change most drastically;
and a restructuring in global power in line with the accessibility of
natural resources.
Left unchecked, "the collapse and chaos associated with extreme
climate change futures would destabilize virtually every aspect of
modern life," said the report, comparing the potential outcome with
the Cold War doomsday scenarios of a nuclear holocaust.
"Climate change has the potential to be one of the greatest national
security challenges that this or any other generation of policy makers
is likely to confront," said the report.
Among its contributors were former CIA director James Woolsey, Nobel
laureate Thomas Schelling, National Academy of Sciences President
Ralph Cicerone, President Bill Clinton's former chief of staff John
Podesta and former Vice President Al Gore's security adviser Leon
Fuerth.
The report listed 10 implications of climate change that policy makers
should consider,
including rising tensions between rich and poor nations,
the backlash resulting from massive migrations,
health problems partly caused by water shortages and crop failures,
and concerns over nuclear proliferation as nations increasingly rely
on nuclear energy.
The global balance of power will shift unpredictably as trade patterns
change, it said.
China's importance in the climate equation will grow as it increases
emissions of greenhouse gases, and Russia's influence will increase
alongside its exports of natural gas, the report said.
Attention began to focus earlier this year on the strategic
consequences of climate change.
But the latest report, more than 100 pages long, is among the most
detailed analyses published so far on security aspects.
Last April, a a panel of retired top-ranking military officers issued
the alarm that global warming was a "serious security threat" likely
to aggravate terrorism and world instability.
The Office of the National Intelligence Director said the following
month it has begun working on an assessment of the national security
implications of climate change.
___________________________________________________
Harry
