N
NBC
Guest
WASHINGTON - Looking past the presidential nomination fight, Democratic
leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their
2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom.
They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the
country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters
and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason
to vote, they worry.
In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party
chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton
strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and
state races.
"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag" on many
candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of Washington, Ind.
Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about
Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing
reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed
admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her fierce
fight for the nomination - despite privately held fears.
The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for
congressional and state legislative candidates.
A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight,
said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat.
A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic Senate
candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to distance
themselves from Clinton.
"The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so
damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C.,
Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the
other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."
"Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she will
make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls."
In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama of
Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it counts most -
in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In matchups against
potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads or is tied.
The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her
electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls to
jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to give
Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative ratings,
which aides insist will go down.
"All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and strategist
Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she is the
front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so long, her
unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will eventually be after
the nomination and through the general election."
What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential
Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the wide lead
the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling.
The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the public
says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47 percent who say
they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup Poll survey Aug. 3-5.
Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President
Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John
Kerry at the end of their campaigns.
A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If
the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome.
"For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had perception
of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be really hard for her
to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster David Eichenbaum, who
represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning states.
Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in
Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16 percentage
points higher than her favorability score.
Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential race. It
also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent opting not to
seek another term and Democrats targeting it.
Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though Democrats
say he may have his own problem - that of race. It's hard to measure the
impact of being the first party to put a black at the top of the ticket,
Democratic leaders said.
Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around.
"She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of her,"
said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I can and will
tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the public, she changes
people's minds. She's not the stereotype that people know her to be."
In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting to
retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like
his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending"
voters.
"She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any
candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said.
"I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because
the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base," said Carrie
Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House who served as executive
director of the state party when Bill Clinton won the 1992 West Virginia
primary.
"But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting behind her
at this early point makes me a little more confident that she could overcome
some of the more obvious hurdles," she said.
Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic candidates
will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash.
"I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he said,
"and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."
---
Associated Press writers Kathy Barks Hoffman in Michigan, Marc Levy in
Pennsylvania, Lawrence Messina in West Virginia, Steven K. Paulson in
Colorado, Kelley Shannon in Texas and Mike A. Smith in Indiana contributed
to this report.
By RON FOURNIER Associated Press Writer
leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their
2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom.
They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the
country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters
and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason
to vote, they worry.
In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party
chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton
strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and
state races.
"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag" on many
candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of Washington, Ind.
Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about
Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing
reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed
admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her fierce
fight for the nomination - despite privately held fears.
The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for
congressional and state legislative candidates.
A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight,
said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat.
A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic Senate
candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to distance
themselves from Clinton.
"The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so
damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C.,
Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the
other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."
"Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she will
make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls."
In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama of
Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it counts most -
in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In matchups against
potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads or is tied.
The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her
electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls to
jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to give
Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative ratings,
which aides insist will go down.
"All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and strategist
Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she is the
front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so long, her
unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will eventually be after
the nomination and through the general election."
What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential
Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the wide lead
the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling.
The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the public
says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47 percent who say
they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup Poll survey Aug. 3-5.
Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President
Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John
Kerry at the end of their campaigns.
A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If
the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome.
"For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had perception
of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be really hard for her
to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster David Eichenbaum, who
represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning states.
Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in
Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16 percentage
points higher than her favorability score.
Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential race. It
also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent opting not to
seek another term and Democrats targeting it.
Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though Democrats
say he may have his own problem - that of race. It's hard to measure the
impact of being the first party to put a black at the top of the ticket,
Democratic leaders said.
Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around.
"She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of her,"
said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I can and will
tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the public, she changes
people's minds. She's not the stereotype that people know her to be."
In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting to
retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like
his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending"
voters.
"She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any
candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said.
"I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because
the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base," said Carrie
Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House who served as executive
director of the state party when Bill Clinton won the 1992 West Virginia
primary.
"But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting behind her
at this early point makes me a little more confident that she could overcome
some of the more obvious hurdles," she said.
Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic candidates
will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash.
"I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he said,
"and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."
---
Associated Press writers Kathy Barks Hoffman in Michigan, Marc Levy in
Pennsylvania, Lawrence Messina in West Virginia, Steven K. Paulson in
Colorado, Kelley Shannon in Texas and Mike A. Smith in Indiana contributed
to this report.
By RON FOURNIER Associated Press Writer
