G
Greg Brown
Guest
WASHINGTON - Looking past the presidential nomination fight,
Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at
the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom.
They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the
country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent
voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election
Day a reason to vote, they worry.
In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and
party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give
Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key
congressional and state races.
"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag"
on many candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of
Washington, Ind.
Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about
Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing
reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed
admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her
fierce fight for the nomination - despite privately held fears.
The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for
congressional and state legislative candidates.
A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election
fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost
him his seat.
A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic
Senate candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to
distance themselves from Clinton.
"The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is
she's so damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the
Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who
could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise
wouldn't."
"Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she
will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls."
In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama
of Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it
counts most - in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In
matchups against potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads
or is tied.
The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her
electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls
to jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to
give Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative
ratings, which aides insist will go down.
"All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and
strategist Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she
is the front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so
long, her unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will
eventually be after the nomination and through the general election."
What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential
Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the
wide lead the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling.
The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the
public says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47
percent who say they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup
Poll survey Aug. 3-5.
Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former
President Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004
Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns.
A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during
campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high
hurdle to overcome.
"For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had
perception of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be
really hard for her to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster
David Eichenbaum, who represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning
states.
Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in
Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16
percentage points higher than her favorability score.
Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential
race. It also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent
opting not to seek another term and Democrats targeting it.
Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though
Democrats say he may have his own problem - that of race. It's hard to
measure the impact of being the first party to put a black at the top
of the ticket, Democratic leaders said.
Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around.
"She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of
her," said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I
can and will tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the
public, she changes people's minds. She's not the stereotype that
people know her to be."
In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting
to retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in
districts like his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving,
church-attending" voters.
"She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would
drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said.
"I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations,
because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican
base," said Carrie Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House
who served as executive director of the state party when Bill Clinton
won the 1992 West Virginia primary.
"But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting
behind her at this early point makes me a little more confident that
she could overcome some of the more obvious hurdles," she said.
Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic
candidates will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash.
"I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he
said, "and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."
---
Associated Press writers Kathy Barks Hoffman in Michigan, Marc Levy in
Pennsylvania, Lawrence Messina in West Virginia, Steven K. Paulson in
Colorado, Kelley Shannon in Texas and Mike A. Smith in Indiana
contributed to this report.
By RON FOURNIER Associated Press Writer
Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at
the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom.
They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the
country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent
voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election
Day a reason to vote, they worry.
In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and
party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give
Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key
congressional and state races.
"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag"
on many candidates, said Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of
Washington, Ind.
Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed to talk frankly about
Clinton's political coattails only if they remained anonymous, fearing
reprisals from the New York senator's campaign. They all expressed
admiration for Clinton, and some said they would publicly support her
fierce fight for the nomination - despite privately held fears.
The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for
congressional and state legislative candidates.
A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election
fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost
him his seat.
A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic
Senate candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to
distance themselves from Clinton.
"The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is
she's so damn unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the
Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. "I think Hillary is someone who
could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise
wouldn't."
"Republicans are upset with their candidates," Arnold added, "but she
will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls."
In national surveys, Clinton's lead over chief rival Sen. Barack Obama
of Illinois has widened. Her advantage is much narrower where it
counts most - in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In
matchups against potential GOP presidential candidates, Clinton leads
or is tied.
The Clinton campaign points to those figures to make a case for her
electability in a constant stream of e-mails, letters and phone calls
to jittery Democrats across the country. A key to their strategy is to
give Clinton's candidacy a sense of inevitability despite her negative
ratings, which aides insist will go down.
"All the negatives on her are out," said Clinton's pollster and
strategist Mark Penn. "There is a phenomena with Hillary, because she
is the front-runner and because she's been battling Republicans for so
long, her unfavorability (rating) looks higher than what they will
eventually be after the nomination and through the general election."
What the Clinton campaign doesn't say is that her edge over potential
Republican candidates is much smaller than it should be, given the
wide lead the Democratic Party holds over the GOP in generic polling.
The problem is her political baggage: A whopping 49 percent of the
public says they have an unfavorable view of Clinton compared to 47
percent who say they hold her in high regard, according to a Gallup
Poll survey Aug. 3-5.
Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former
President Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush and 2004
Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns.
A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during
campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high
hurdle to overcome.
"For Hillary, who has been on the scene for so long and has had
perception of her so ground in ... there's no question it will be
really hard for her to change perceptions," said Democratic pollster
David Eichenbaum, who represents moderate Democrats in GOP-leaning
states.
Her baggage is heaviest in those states. Private polling conducted in
Colorado, for example, shows that Clinton's negative rating is 16
percentage points higher than her favorability score.
Colorado is a state Democrats hope to win in the 2008 presidential
race. It also has an open Senate seat, with the Republican incumbent
opting not to seek another term and Democrats targeting it.
Obama has much lower unfavorability ratings than Clinton, though
Democrats say he may have his own problem - that of race. It's hard to
measure the impact of being the first party to put a black at the top
of the ticket, Democratic leaders said.
Some Democrats hold out hope that Clinton can turn things around.
"She's got a tough road to hoe because people have formed opinions of
her," said Rep. Tim Mahoney, a freshman Democrat from Florida. "But I
can and will tell you that when I see Hillary get out there with the
public, she changes people's minds. She's not the stereotype that
people know her to be."
In Indiana, where three freshman Democratic congressmen are fighting
to retain their seats, Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in
districts like his full of "gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving,
church-attending" voters.
"She is just so polarizing," the state lawmaker said. Clinton would
drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said.
"I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations,
because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican
base," said Carrie Webster, a leader in the West Virginia state House
who served as executive director of the state party when Bill Clinton
won the 1992 West Virginia primary.
"But the fact that so many prominent Democratic males are getting
behind her at this early point makes me a little more confident that
she could overcome some of the more obvious hurdles," she said.
Nebraska party chairman Matt Connealy said he believes Democratic
candidates will be able to avoid a Clinton backlash.
"I probably would have given you a different answer a month ago," he
said, "and maybe will give you a different answer a month from now."
---
Associated Press writers Kathy Barks Hoffman in Michigan, Marc Levy in
Pennsylvania, Lawrence Messina in West Virginia, Steven K. Paulson in
Colorado, Kelley Shannon in Texas and Mike A. Smith in Indiana
contributed to this report.
By RON FOURNIER Associated Press Writer
