Democrats gain big in yesterday's state and local elections

Republicans have Louisiana, Mississippi, and Indianapolis. Democrats have

the rest of the country.

Virginia

What used to be a 23-17 Republican Senate majority is now a 21-18 Democratic

majority, with one seat still neck and neck. In the House, a 56-41

Republican majority (with three independents) is now 52-43 with two

independents and three seats still waiting to be called.

And particularly delicious was the crushing defeat of Rep. Tom Davis' wife

in her Fairfax County senate seat. It's time for the whole family to pull up

stakes and head off to richer (K Street) pastures.

Kentucky

What a crushing defeat for Kentucky's Republicans. In the governor's race,

the most socially conservative part of the state went heavily Beshear in a

bad omen for Mitch McConnell. It was a genuine bloodbath.

Beshear has won McCracken County by 20 points. Beshear leads in Warren

County by 12 (Fletcher won by 22 in 2003), and has won Shelby County by 10

(Fletcher won by 20 in 2003), and remarkably Beshear leads in Campbell

County by 14 points with 74% reporting, a county Fletcher won by 26 in 2003.

Incredible [...]

Good Lord, Fletcher defeated Beshear in Boone County by less than 2

points. Yes, you heard that right. The county which Fletcher won by 44

points in 2003 was effectively a dead-heat four years later. And given that

Beshear won Campbell County by 12 points (Kenton hasn't reported yet), this

might be the biggest story of Election Night. This will rock the

conventional wisdom that Republicans own Northern Kentucky. Amazing.

Maine

The state had five special elections, and Democrats won three of them,

extending their lead in the State House to 90 out of 151 seats -- the first

time in a decade any party has held a lead that large.

Ohio

The largest city in the state run by a Republican -- Canton -- is no longer

Red.

The pre-vote CW on this city:

This is the race that could solidify the GOP's media narrative in Ohio

going into '08. The Ohio Republican Party should retain the Canton Mayoral

seat. Afterall, they pulled EVERYONE out of Columbus (no crap) and

everywhere else across the state to send them to Canton at the last minute

in an emergency bid to save this seat. Hands down, this is the largest city

that a Republican serves as a mayor of in Ohio. Taking this seat from

Republicans would prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the party is in

shambles.

After the vote was counted, the OHIO GOP looked damaged next to the state's

resurgent Democratic machine.

This has more meaning than anything else that happened in Ohio politics

Tuesday. It has more meaning than all of Columbus, the entire OH-5 race, and

every other city council candidate or judge we picked up statewide. This

victory is the single greatest sign of the demise of the once great

Republican Party in Ohio. Let me explain.

The most interesting thing about the Columbus municipal elections on

Tuesday was how desolate the city was of any sign of the GOP. Since Columbus

is Ohio's largest city, you'd think that the ORP would at least put up a

fight there - especially since they were willing to dump hundreds of

thousands of dollars into their Columbus races. There were no Republicans in

parking lots, informing voters about GOP candidates. There were no reports

of phone calls going out to GOPer voters in their homes. Hell, I don't even

think the GOP drove voters to the polls. By order of Bob Bennett, Chairman

of the Ohio Republican Party, Republicans throughout Columbus, and the rest

of the state, abandoned everything in order to put a firewall around the

Canton Mayoral race. They put all their resources into trying to defend

Creighton's hold over Ohio's 9th largest city, Canton [...]

Nowhere in Ohio. NOWHERE. Did Ohio Republicans upset Democrats in a major

Mayoral race. In fact, not only did Republicans lose in Ohio's 9th largest

city, but they also lost in Lorain, Ohio's 10th largest city. The Lorain

Mayoral race is another pickup for the Ohio Democratic Party and shuts

Republicans from controlling any cities amongst Ohio's 10 largest. In fact

the only contest on the radar in which the Republican Party prevailed was in

Green, Ohio - a teeny little town of 22,000 folks - where they beat a 27

year old by 700 votes. Hardly a resounding victory.

They lost in Marion. They lost in Chillicothe. They lost in Lorain. They

lost in Columbus - all of it. They lost in Mansfield. They lost in Athens.

They lost in Canton. They lost even lost in sleepy little Bellefontaine to a

bright eyed, 22 year old Democrat by the name of Adam Brannon. By most

accounts - if Mayoral races are the benchmark to judge the GOP's performance

this year - they lost Ohio.

And when push came to shove. When Bob Bennett put everything on the line,

the full power of the Ohio Republican Party, to retain the GOP's most

important city, they lost when they should've won easily.

This bodes well for Democratic chances at both the presidential level, as

well as the state's battleground House races like the open OH-16 seat (which

includes Canton).

New Jersey

Dems increased their narrow 21-18 lead in the State Senate by one seat,

including two pickups in conservative southern Jersey.

In the two major State Senate races, both Democratic challengers won

against their Republican opponents. Jeff Van Drew won in District 1--

dominated by conservative Cape May county -- and Jim Whelan won in District

2 -- you may have heard of Atlantic City. Steve Sweeney and his Assembly

running mates all easily won re-election in the District 3.

Jeff Van Drew is a star who is expected to eventually run for Congress.

30% of registered voters in District 1 are Republican, and only 16% are

Democrats. Jim Whelan is no sluch either, overcoming a 26-21 disadvatange.

Together these three districts form most of New Jersey Congressional

District Two, represented by Republican Frank LoBiondo.

With LoBiondo's district becoming more Democratic-friendly, it opens up a

new front in the battle for the U.S. House.

New York

Republicans made this election all about "scary brown people with drivers

licenses", and yet they seriously underperformed.

Democrats declared yesterday that Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to give

driver's licenses to illegal immigrants had not proved to be the electoral

boon Republicans had hoped for in local elections, despite the Republicans'

aggressive efforts to exploit overwhelming public opposition to the

proposal.

Though Democrats appeared to expand their majority in the Legislature in

Suffolk County, Republicans were not ready to concede a pivotal Nassau

County legislative race, and pointed to significant victories in several

county races upstate as evidence of a Republican resurgence in the state

[...]

In many parts of the state, turnout appeared to be even lower than usual

for an off-year election, despite Republican hopes that the licensing issue

would drive Republican voters to the polls.

Though anger clearly existed over Mr. Spitzer's proposal - as well as his

bout with scandal and his battles with Albany Republicans - many local races

appeared to hinge, as they traditionally do, on local issues like property

taxes and municipal services, or on the specific strengths and weaknesses of

the candidates themselves [...]

In Monroe County, Democrats won one hard-fought legislative seat despite a

late effort to blanket the area with mailers that charged local Democrats

with aiding terrorists because of their support for Mr. Spitzer's licensing

plan.

Though the seat will not by itself swing control of the County

Legislature, Democrats hope it will presage a strong effort next year

against two Rochester-area Republicans in the State Senate.

Update:

Mississippi

Democrats did poorly in statewide offices, but at the legislative level

notched strong victories. In the Senate, they turned a 27-25 deficit to a

28-24 lead after picking up three seats. In the House, the present

Democratic advantage of 75-47 will apparently remain unchanged.

Pennsylvania

Democrats reversed a one-seat GOP majority in the state Supreme Court to a

one-seat Democratic majority.