'Expelled' could exceed box-office forecasts

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-projector18apr18,1,4982009.story?track=rss

'Expelled' could exceed box-office forecasts

April 18, 2008

Commentator and character actor Ben Stein, whose film career took flight

when he played the boring, strait-laced economics teacher in the 1986 teen

comedy "Ferris Bueller's Day Off," has come around to the other side.

As host and co-writer of "Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed," this time the

63-year-old Stein is the one striking a preppy rebel pose. In Premise Media

Corp.'s new documentary, Stein purports to expose a conspiracy against the

intelligent design movement, arguing that "Big Science" is stifling academic

freedom by keeping any discussion of God out of the classroom.

Expelled," with production and marketing budgets in the single-digit

millions, is expected to make no dent at the box-office despite the widest

documentary release ever, at more than 1,000 theaters. But it could dwarf

forecasts with even a fraction of the faith-based crowd that turned Mel

Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ" into a cultural phenomenon in 2004.

This weekend's battle for No. 1 is between the Jet Li-Jackie Chan martial

arts adventure, "The Forbidden Kingdom," from Lionsgate Films and Weinstein

Co., and the raunchy romantic comedy "Forgetting Sarah Marshall," from

Universal Pictures. The race looks as tight as Tom and Katie at an US Weekly

photo shoot, with consumer tracking polls showing both films opening in the

mid-teen millions, or slightly higher.

"Expelled" faces an uphill fight in an industry that spends an estimated

$117 million to produce and market the average big studio film, although as

"The Passion" showed, the faith market can be a surprising force when

mobilized.

"This is David versus Goliath," Stein said in a phone interview, pausing to

board a plane and, in his trademark monotone drawl, order a Tazo Refresh

with honey. The Biblical tale "turned out OK for David," he said, "but often

in the movie business it doesn't."

"Expelled," released via Rocky Mountain Pictures, is being called deceptive

by several of the scientists who were interviewed in the film.

P.Z. Myers, a biologist at the University of Minnesota, Morris, said the

producers pulled a "Borat"-style switcheroo after arranging his

participation in a project called "Crossroads: The Intersection of Science

and Religion."

"They played it up as a serious discussion with different points of view --

like a slightly boring documentary on 'Nova,' " he said. "Instead, we get a

propaganda film portraying scientists as Nazis."

Myers found it ironic that he was "expelled" from a recent test screening at

Mall of America in Minneapolis after one of the movie's producers recognized

him in line.

Walt Ruloff, the movie's executive producer, said Darwinists and atheists

were the ones manufacturing controversy.

"They're trying to come up with a way to discredit us," he said. "The best

they can come up with is that we changed the title? Gosh, let's get real and

talk about the issues."

Premise enlisted Motive Entertainment, the faith-based specialist that

helped market "The Passion," in a grass-roots effort that is drawing as much

fire as the film itself.

Through its website, Team "Expelled" is offering goodies to entice group

sales in the Bible Belt and beyond, a move some call borderline bribery.

People who bring 25 patrons to "Expelled" can get a limited-edition Ben

Stein bobblehead -- just the enticement for collectors like Projector who

already have the Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh dolls.

The " 'Expelled' Challenge" urges schools and home-schooling groups to get

students, parents and faculty to show up in force, promising donations of $5

to $10 per ticket stub for those who register.

"In speaking with Christian schools, we've found that hosting a school-wide

'mandatory' field trip is the best way to maximize your school's earning

potential," the site explains.

Ruloff said the film could top the $23.9-million opening for Michael Moore's

polemic against President Bush, "Fahrenheit 9/11," the best launch ever for

a documentary.

That seems unlikely to Projector, a practitioner of the science -- or is it

pseudo-science? -- of box-office forecasting. But it would be welcome, if

only because the paper's shocked editors would surely put the weekend

wrap-up story on Page One and at the top of the website, where it belongs

every week.

Of the higher-profile films, "The Forbidden Kingdom" has the advantage of a

PG-13 rating, whereas "Sarah Marshall" and "88 Minutes," an Al Pacino

thriller from Sony Pictures, carry the restrictive R.

"Kingdom" was financed for an estimated $75 million by Relativity Media and

Weinstein, through its new $285-million Asian Film Fund.

"Sarah Marshall," which first gained notice through a cryptic marketing

campaign featuring billboards with messages such as "I'm so over you, Sarah

Marshall," is the latest from producer Judd Apatow.

The $30-million production is not tracking quite as well as "Kingdom," but

its reviews are solid and it has a similar feel to Apatow's hits "Knocked

Up" and "The 40-Year-Old Virgin."

"88 Minutes," which Sony bought for about $5 million, is tracking to open at

$12 million, but word-of-mouth could hurt. A Sony bigwig scolded Projector

for describing early reviews as "brutal," so let's just say critics are

using the term "amazing," but not in a nice way.