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Captain Compassion
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Forecast for big sea level rise
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website, Vienna
People in low-lying poor nations, such as Bangladesh, are at most risk
Sea levels could rise by up to one-and-a-half metres by the end of
this century, according to a new scientific analysis.
This is substantially more than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) forecast in last year's landmark assessment of climate
science.
Sea level rise of this magnitude would have major impacts on low-lying
countries such as Bangladesh.
The findings were presented at a major science conference in Vienna.
The research group is not the first to suggest that the IPCC's
forecast of an average rise in global sea levels of 28-43cm by 2100 is
too conservative.
The IPCC was unable to include the contribution from "accelerated"
melting of polar ice sheets as water temperatures warm because the
processes involved were not yet understood.
Melt water
The new analysis comes from a UK/Finnish team which has built a
computer model linking temperatures to sea levels for the last two
millennia.
Glaciers 'flowing faster'
"For the past 2,000 years, the [global average] sea level was very
stable, it only varied by about 20cm," said Svetlana Jevrejeva from
the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), near Liverpool, UK.
"But by the end of the century, we predict it will rise by between
0.8m and 1.5m.
"The rapid rise in the coming years is associated with the rapid
melting of ice sheets."
The model, she told reporters here at the European Geosciences Union
(EGU) annual meeting, is able to mimic accurately sea levels reliably
observed by tide gauges over the last 300 years.
There is little concrete evidence on sea levels for the thousands of
years before that, explained POL's Simon Holgate, who was not involved
in the new study.
"There is some limited archaeological evidence [based on] the sill
heights of fish enclosures that the Romans used, that's probably the
strongest evidence that there hasn't been any significant change in
sea level over the last 2,000 years."
Against that, he said, the currently observed rise of about three mm
per year is significant, and many scientists working in the field
expect to see an acceleration.
Last year, German researcher Stefan Rahmstorf used different
methodology but reached a similar conclusion to Dr Jevrejeva's group,
projecting a sea level rise of between 0.5m and 1.4m by 2100.
Space-eye view
The latest satellite data indicates that the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass, though the much bigger East
Antarctic sheet may be gaining mass.
Ebb and flow of sea level rise
A full melting of Greenland and West Antarctica would raise sea levels
by many metres; but the process, if it happened, would take centuries.
"We know what's happening today from satellite data, but trying to
predict what that means in the future is very difficult science,"
noted Steve Nerem from the University of Colorado, whose own research
concerns global sea levels.
"There's a lot of evidence out there that we're going to see at least
a metre of sea level rise by 2100," he said.
"We're seeing big changes in Greenland, we're seeing big changes in
West Antarctica, so we're expecting this to show up in the sea level
data as an increase in the rate we've been observing."
However, a rise of even a metre could have major implications for
low-lying countries - especially, noted Dr Holgate, those whose
economies are not geared up to build sophisticated sea defence
systems.
"Eighty to 90% of Bangladesh is within a metre or so of sea level," he
said, "so if you live in the Ganges delta you're in a lot of trouble;
and that's an awful lot of people."
Dr Jevrejeva's projections have been submitted for publication in the
scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
--
If you disagree with the theories and dogmas of Marxism or Scientific Socialism
then you are a tool of Capitalist interests. If you disagree with the theories
or dogmas of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming then you are a tool of
Capitalistic interests. Notice a pattern here? -- Captain Compassion
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website, Vienna
People in low-lying poor nations, such as Bangladesh, are at most risk
Sea levels could rise by up to one-and-a-half metres by the end of
this century, according to a new scientific analysis.
This is substantially more than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) forecast in last year's landmark assessment of climate
science.
Sea level rise of this magnitude would have major impacts on low-lying
countries such as Bangladesh.
The findings were presented at a major science conference in Vienna.
The research group is not the first to suggest that the IPCC's
forecast of an average rise in global sea levels of 28-43cm by 2100 is
too conservative.
The IPCC was unable to include the contribution from "accelerated"
melting of polar ice sheets as water temperatures warm because the
processes involved were not yet understood.
Melt water
The new analysis comes from a UK/Finnish team which has built a
computer model linking temperatures to sea levels for the last two
millennia.
Glaciers 'flowing faster'
"For the past 2,000 years, the [global average] sea level was very
stable, it only varied by about 20cm," said Svetlana Jevrejeva from
the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), near Liverpool, UK.
"But by the end of the century, we predict it will rise by between
0.8m and 1.5m.
"The rapid rise in the coming years is associated with the rapid
melting of ice sheets."
The model, she told reporters here at the European Geosciences Union
(EGU) annual meeting, is able to mimic accurately sea levels reliably
observed by tide gauges over the last 300 years.
There is little concrete evidence on sea levels for the thousands of
years before that, explained POL's Simon Holgate, who was not involved
in the new study.
"There is some limited archaeological evidence [based on] the sill
heights of fish enclosures that the Romans used, that's probably the
strongest evidence that there hasn't been any significant change in
sea level over the last 2,000 years."
Against that, he said, the currently observed rise of about three mm
per year is significant, and many scientists working in the field
expect to see an acceleration.
Last year, German researcher Stefan Rahmstorf used different
methodology but reached a similar conclusion to Dr Jevrejeva's group,
projecting a sea level rise of between 0.5m and 1.4m by 2100.
Space-eye view
The latest satellite data indicates that the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass, though the much bigger East
Antarctic sheet may be gaining mass.
Ebb and flow of sea level rise
A full melting of Greenland and West Antarctica would raise sea levels
by many metres; but the process, if it happened, would take centuries.
"We know what's happening today from satellite data, but trying to
predict what that means in the future is very difficult science,"
noted Steve Nerem from the University of Colorado, whose own research
concerns global sea levels.
"There's a lot of evidence out there that we're going to see at least
a metre of sea level rise by 2100," he said.
"We're seeing big changes in Greenland, we're seeing big changes in
West Antarctica, so we're expecting this to show up in the sea level
data as an increase in the rate we've been observing."
However, a rise of even a metre could have major implications for
low-lying countries - especially, noted Dr Holgate, those whose
economies are not geared up to build sophisticated sea defence
systems.
"Eighty to 90% of Bangladesh is within a metre or so of sea level," he
said, "so if you live in the Ganges delta you're in a lot of trouble;
and that's an awful lot of people."
Dr Jevrejeva's projections have been submitted for publication in the
scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
--
If you disagree with the theories and dogmas of Marxism or Scientific Socialism
then you are a tool of Capitalist interests. If you disagree with the theories
or dogmas of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming then you are a tool of
Capitalistic interests. Notice a pattern here? -- Captain Compassion
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
