C
Captain Compassion
Guest
Global temperatures 'to decrease'
By Roger Harrabin
BBC News environment analyst
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm
Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the
cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN
meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel
Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into
the summer.
This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998,
prompting some to question climate change theory.
But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend -
and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest
on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average
surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.
While Nasa, the US space agency, cites 2005 as the warmest year, the
UK's Hadley Centre lists it as second to 1998.
Researchers say the uncertainty in the observed value for any
particular year is larger than these small temperature differences.
What matters, they say, is the long-term upward trend.
Rises 'stalled'
LA NINA KEY FACTS
La Nina translates from the Spanish as "The Child Girl"
Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific
Increased sea temperatures on the western side of the Pacific mean the
atmosphere has more energy and frequency of heavy rain and
thunderstorms is increased
Typically lasts for up to 12 months and generally less damaging event
than the stronger El Nino
La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose
effects are so huge they resonate round the world.
El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year,
the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.
It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the
coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.
Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into
the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a
degree.
This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998
when El Nino warmed the world.
Watching trends
A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming
has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse
gases than predicted.
Cannot play media. Sorry you need to have JavaScript enabled on your
browser.
Animation of El Nino and La Nina effects
But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008
temperatures would still be well above average for the century.
"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular
year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period
and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of
warming.
"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been
and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is
important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on
average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La
Nina."
Cannot play media. Sorry you need to have JavaScript enabled on your
browser.
China suffered from heavy snow in January
Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the
Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was
about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you
compared it with further back in the 20th Century.
Mr Scaife told the BBC: "What's happened now is that La Nina has come
along and depressed temperatures slightly but these changes are very
small compared to the long-term climate change signal, and in a few
years time we are confident that the current record temperature of
1998 will be beaten when the La Nina has ended."
--
If you disagree with the theories and dogmas of Marxism or Scientific Socialism
then you are a tool of Capitalist interests. If you disagree with the theories
or dogmas of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming then you are a tool of
Capitalistic interests. Notice a pattern here? -- Captain Compassion
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
By Roger Harrabin
BBC News environment analyst
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm
Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the
cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN
meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel
Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into
the summer.
This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998,
prompting some to question climate change theory.
But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend -
and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.
The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest
on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average
surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.
While Nasa, the US space agency, cites 2005 as the warmest year, the
UK's Hadley Centre lists it as second to 1998.
Researchers say the uncertainty in the observed value for any
particular year is larger than these small temperature differences.
What matters, they say, is the long-term upward trend.
Rises 'stalled'
LA NINA KEY FACTS
La Nina translates from the Spanish as "The Child Girl"
Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific
Increased sea temperatures on the western side of the Pacific mean the
atmosphere has more energy and frequency of heavy rain and
thunderstorms is increased
Typically lasts for up to 12 months and generally less damaging event
than the stronger El Nino
La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose
effects are so huge they resonate round the world.
El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year,
the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.
It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the
coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.
Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into
the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a
degree.
This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998
when El Nino warmed the world.
Watching trends
A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming
has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse
gases than predicted.
Cannot play media. Sorry you need to have JavaScript enabled on your
browser.
Animation of El Nino and La Nina effects
But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008
temperatures would still be well above average for the century.
"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular
year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period
and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of
warming.
"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been
and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is
important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on
average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La
Nina."
Cannot play media. Sorry you need to have JavaScript enabled on your
browser.
China suffered from heavy snow in January
Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the
Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was
about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you
compared it with further back in the 20th Century.
Mr Scaife told the BBC: "What's happened now is that La Nina has come
along and depressed temperatures slightly but these changes are very
small compared to the long-term climate change signal, and in a few
years time we are confident that the current record temperature of
1998 will be beaten when the La Nina has ended."
--
If you disagree with the theories and dogmas of Marxism or Scientific Socialism
then you are a tool of Capitalist interests. If you disagree with the theories
or dogmas of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming then you are a tool of
Capitalistic interests. Notice a pattern here? -- Captain Compassion
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
