C
Captain Compassion
Guest
Global warming at the box office
After gloomy forecasts, summer shined brightly
By TED JOHNSON
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117971199.html?categoryId=13&cs=1
Just 24 months ago, the sky was falling. With box office down,
Hollywood's summer ended in a torrent of lament. Studios rushed to
come up with an explanation, and some of the best minds acknowledged
their greatest fears -- that in an age of iPods and cell-phone videos,
there was a fundamental shift going on in the marketplace: Moviegoing,
they concluded, was an outmoded form of entertainment.
Shift to this summer, and box office is up 8% domestically, 20%
overseas. For the first time, domestic summer B.O. passed the $4
billion mark.
Since there was no shortage of theories about why box office fell,
there are just as many hypotheses as to why moviegoing is up.
To start, there is the simplest explanation.
"Box office was up this summer because the movies were good," says
Michael Lynton, chairman and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment. He
notes that when box office is down, people run around saying "woe is
me or woe is that" and look for a diminished appetite for moviegoing.
"All the people I talk to say it's really all about the product,"
Lynton says.
Notes MPAA chairman Dan Glickman, "As Shakespeare said, 'The play is
the thing.' As long as we offer good quality stories that people like
and a comfortable place to see them, people will go to the movies."
That theory, however, is just part of the picture. After surveying
studio execs, producers, marketers and others, the big windfall of the
summer of 2007 was about much more than just the movies.
Success begets success.
The success of pics like "300" and "Wild Hogs" in the season's first
four months got people into the moviegoing habit. So by the time
summer started, there was ample demand to see films, even if the
summer saw an unprecedented number of tentpoles. Rather than
cannibalize the business, they expanded it.
"The industry just got off to a fast and great start," says Marc
Shmuger, chairman of Universal Pictures. "The momentum of moviegoing
never let up."
And audiences in the winter and spring were exposed to movies in the
summer.
"The 'trailering' from ongoing franchises was really helpful for
'Ratatouille,' 'Simpsons' and 'Transformers,' " notes Disney's David
Kornbum. "People had a good time and came back for more."
Says one studio topper: "I think once you get into a cycle of good
movies, people get into the habit of going to movies. It works both
ways. It's the single biggest danger to a strike that I think people
forget. When baseball was on strike, it took a while for the audience
to come back."
Sequels equal must-see.
There were many preseason predictions that there were too many
sequels, and especially vulnerable were the three-peats, since
franchises tend to run out of gas in the third edition. The summer
results defied conventional wisdom. Instead of getting tired of
sequels, audiences seemed to be hooked on them. They could instantly
recognize what the movies were, and anticipate them months in advance
-- any movie marketer's dream.
(The lone exception was "Evan Almighty," which may have suffered
because audiences didn't know it was a followup to "Bruce Almighty.")
"The fact that they were sequels creates that buzz," says Joel Cohen,
executive vice president and general manager of Movietickets.com. "It
creates that sense of anticipation. They saw the first run and are
looking forward to the next one. People started buying 'Harry Potter'
tickets two months before the movie was released."
Broader scope
Recent summers have seen a bifurcated market: Kids go for the
tentpoles, adults go for the limited-release counterprogramming. But
wide releases as varied as "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World's End," "The Simpsons Movie," "Hairspray" and
"Knocked Up" drew broader audiences, and studios found the benefits of
targeting filmgoers beyond teen boys.
Expectations in check.
The decline in the box office of 2005 followed an abnormally strong
box office in 2004 (which had been boosted by the unexpected success
of "The Passion of the Christ"). So all of those filmgoing obituaries
were not only premature, they ignored the overall long-term trend of
rising box office. This summer was merely the natural progression of
the marketplace. "You can't expect to have a record-breaking year or
summer every time in a business that's 100 years old," says Bruce
Snyder, Fox's president of distribution.
Prices inch up.
If a theater charges $10 per ticket, why not $10.25? This is the kind
of incremental increase in ticket prices that exhibitors have been
doing for quite some time. Even tiny increases can boost summer B.O.
considerably.
Young guns.
Teen auds were lured by teen characters. Shia LaBeouf and Jonah Hill
headlined pics like "Transformers" and "Superbad." Even "Live Free and
Die Hard" benefited from the presence of Justin Long as co-star to
Bruce Willis. As such, they drew teen audiences looking for the next
new thing.
New-media fatigue.
Hand-held devices were supposed to revolutionize the business -- and
they may have -- but the novelty has worn thin. This was the summer
that the iPhone was introduced, but it didn't stop moviegoers from
seeing "Transformers" just a few days later. Parents have started to
encourage their kids to get out of the house and to the multiplex, if
only to get them away from the computer. "All of the alternative media
sources that have been obsessing kids have become more regular," says
the head of one production shingle. "They are spending less time
playing around on new media and more time looking for something else."
A case in point: Amusement park attendance also is up, so kids are
anxious to get out of the house. Gas prices would seem to keep more
people in their homes, but "they've gotten used to the sticker shock."
Fat camp.
Two-thirds of adults and 25 million children are overweight or obese
in the United States, according to a recent report, an epidemic of
obesity that shows that Americans are spending less time exercising
and more time sitting down. And as exhibitors install stadium seating,
plush seats and delicious new concession options, what better way to
find a berth for the girth?
Crafty marketing.
Studios are starting to master Internet marketing campaigns. For
example, Sony unleashed a raunchier, Internet-only trailer of
"Superbad," along with website clips featuring hidden ribald clips
(age protected). Disney spread 9-minute sequences of "Ratatouille" on
YouTube, Disney.com and iTunes. Heavy marketing paid off, but so did
restraint. "Many marketing campaigns, especially those that were part
of a franchise, didn't try to overreach or put the hard sell on the
consumer," says Damon Wolf, founder and partner of Crew Creative
Advertising, which handled assignments such as "Harry Potter" and
"Bourne Ultimatum." "Sometimes we try to hit people so hard, it pushes
them away."
The weak dollar.
Some of the summer's most staggering business took place overseas,
with box office in international territories up 20% from last year,
30% ahead of 2005. And as much as moviegoers seemed to crave Hollywood
product, studios benefit because of the weak dollar. The Euro's value
against the dollar grew by 7% over the past 12 months. That meant more
money for studios when dollars were translated from local currencies.
New territories.
New multiplexes in markets like Russia, Brazil and Eastern Europe
boosted moviegoing. And some pics succeeded in unexpected places.
South Korea turned out to be the best foreign market for
"Transformers," raking in more than $50 million. Moreover, studios
kept most of their non-franchise product out of theaters
internationally for most of the summer, which helped focus the
audience on the blockbusters.
The schedule.
The first of August usually marks a Maginot line at the box office,
after which studios dump their least-promising product. But with
"Bourne," "Rush Hour 3" and "Superbad" debuting, the month had viable
material, and audiences responded. There still were pics like "The
Invasion," but the dog days of summer were shorter this year.
The weather.
Is global warming good for Hollywood? Extreme heat and heavy rain
across large swaths of the U.S. sent more people to theaters, looking
for relief. The onset of the extreme weather -- record-breaking
temperatures in the western U.S., rain up and down the Eastern
seaboard, the Midwest and Texas -- started at the end of June, just as
the box office was starting to see a bump. "You went from dreadful
heat to downpours," Snyder says. "Historically, we've seen a bounce in
grosses when the weather is bad. Also, when kids can't go outside, and
make their parents nuts, they send them to the movies."
Escapism.
War, scandal, disaster. That's all you see in the news. People just
want to escape. They'll avoid "The Mighty Heart" in favor of talking
rats. It seems like a great explanation, full of cultural
pontification, intellectual heft and societal angst. That is, until
you remember what was in the news in the tepid summer of 2005: War,
scandal, disaster.
Actually, the movies weren't that great.
According to some, all these theories are wrong. There's one school of
thought that says things weren't so hot this summer. You had mixed
reviews for "Spider-Man 3," an incomprehensible "Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World's End," and way too many sequels to think that
Hollywood had any ounce left of originality. "There could have been a
huge bump," says the head of one production shingle. "As it was, we
had an OK bump."
--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
After gloomy forecasts, summer shined brightly
By TED JOHNSON
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117971199.html?categoryId=13&cs=1
Just 24 months ago, the sky was falling. With box office down,
Hollywood's summer ended in a torrent of lament. Studios rushed to
come up with an explanation, and some of the best minds acknowledged
their greatest fears -- that in an age of iPods and cell-phone videos,
there was a fundamental shift going on in the marketplace: Moviegoing,
they concluded, was an outmoded form of entertainment.
Shift to this summer, and box office is up 8% domestically, 20%
overseas. For the first time, domestic summer B.O. passed the $4
billion mark.
Since there was no shortage of theories about why box office fell,
there are just as many hypotheses as to why moviegoing is up.
To start, there is the simplest explanation.
"Box office was up this summer because the movies were good," says
Michael Lynton, chairman and CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment. He
notes that when box office is down, people run around saying "woe is
me or woe is that" and look for a diminished appetite for moviegoing.
"All the people I talk to say it's really all about the product,"
Lynton says.
Notes MPAA chairman Dan Glickman, "As Shakespeare said, 'The play is
the thing.' As long as we offer good quality stories that people like
and a comfortable place to see them, people will go to the movies."
That theory, however, is just part of the picture. After surveying
studio execs, producers, marketers and others, the big windfall of the
summer of 2007 was about much more than just the movies.
Success begets success.
The success of pics like "300" and "Wild Hogs" in the season's first
four months got people into the moviegoing habit. So by the time
summer started, there was ample demand to see films, even if the
summer saw an unprecedented number of tentpoles. Rather than
cannibalize the business, they expanded it.
"The industry just got off to a fast and great start," says Marc
Shmuger, chairman of Universal Pictures. "The momentum of moviegoing
never let up."
And audiences in the winter and spring were exposed to movies in the
summer.
"The 'trailering' from ongoing franchises was really helpful for
'Ratatouille,' 'Simpsons' and 'Transformers,' " notes Disney's David
Kornbum. "People had a good time and came back for more."
Says one studio topper: "I think once you get into a cycle of good
movies, people get into the habit of going to movies. It works both
ways. It's the single biggest danger to a strike that I think people
forget. When baseball was on strike, it took a while for the audience
to come back."
Sequels equal must-see.
There were many preseason predictions that there were too many
sequels, and especially vulnerable were the three-peats, since
franchises tend to run out of gas in the third edition. The summer
results defied conventional wisdom. Instead of getting tired of
sequels, audiences seemed to be hooked on them. They could instantly
recognize what the movies were, and anticipate them months in advance
-- any movie marketer's dream.
(The lone exception was "Evan Almighty," which may have suffered
because audiences didn't know it was a followup to "Bruce Almighty.")
"The fact that they were sequels creates that buzz," says Joel Cohen,
executive vice president and general manager of Movietickets.com. "It
creates that sense of anticipation. They saw the first run and are
looking forward to the next one. People started buying 'Harry Potter'
tickets two months before the movie was released."
Broader scope
Recent summers have seen a bifurcated market: Kids go for the
tentpoles, adults go for the limited-release counterprogramming. But
wide releases as varied as "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World's End," "The Simpsons Movie," "Hairspray" and
"Knocked Up" drew broader audiences, and studios found the benefits of
targeting filmgoers beyond teen boys.
Expectations in check.
The decline in the box office of 2005 followed an abnormally strong
box office in 2004 (which had been boosted by the unexpected success
of "The Passion of the Christ"). So all of those filmgoing obituaries
were not only premature, they ignored the overall long-term trend of
rising box office. This summer was merely the natural progression of
the marketplace. "You can't expect to have a record-breaking year or
summer every time in a business that's 100 years old," says Bruce
Snyder, Fox's president of distribution.
Prices inch up.
If a theater charges $10 per ticket, why not $10.25? This is the kind
of incremental increase in ticket prices that exhibitors have been
doing for quite some time. Even tiny increases can boost summer B.O.
considerably.
Young guns.
Teen auds were lured by teen characters. Shia LaBeouf and Jonah Hill
headlined pics like "Transformers" and "Superbad." Even "Live Free and
Die Hard" benefited from the presence of Justin Long as co-star to
Bruce Willis. As such, they drew teen audiences looking for the next
new thing.
New-media fatigue.
Hand-held devices were supposed to revolutionize the business -- and
they may have -- but the novelty has worn thin. This was the summer
that the iPhone was introduced, but it didn't stop moviegoers from
seeing "Transformers" just a few days later. Parents have started to
encourage their kids to get out of the house and to the multiplex, if
only to get them away from the computer. "All of the alternative media
sources that have been obsessing kids have become more regular," says
the head of one production shingle. "They are spending less time
playing around on new media and more time looking for something else."
A case in point: Amusement park attendance also is up, so kids are
anxious to get out of the house. Gas prices would seem to keep more
people in their homes, but "they've gotten used to the sticker shock."
Fat camp.
Two-thirds of adults and 25 million children are overweight or obese
in the United States, according to a recent report, an epidemic of
obesity that shows that Americans are spending less time exercising
and more time sitting down. And as exhibitors install stadium seating,
plush seats and delicious new concession options, what better way to
find a berth for the girth?
Crafty marketing.
Studios are starting to master Internet marketing campaigns. For
example, Sony unleashed a raunchier, Internet-only trailer of
"Superbad," along with website clips featuring hidden ribald clips
(age protected). Disney spread 9-minute sequences of "Ratatouille" on
YouTube, Disney.com and iTunes. Heavy marketing paid off, but so did
restraint. "Many marketing campaigns, especially those that were part
of a franchise, didn't try to overreach or put the hard sell on the
consumer," says Damon Wolf, founder and partner of Crew Creative
Advertising, which handled assignments such as "Harry Potter" and
"Bourne Ultimatum." "Sometimes we try to hit people so hard, it pushes
them away."
The weak dollar.
Some of the summer's most staggering business took place overseas,
with box office in international territories up 20% from last year,
30% ahead of 2005. And as much as moviegoers seemed to crave Hollywood
product, studios benefit because of the weak dollar. The Euro's value
against the dollar grew by 7% over the past 12 months. That meant more
money for studios when dollars were translated from local currencies.
New territories.
New multiplexes in markets like Russia, Brazil and Eastern Europe
boosted moviegoing. And some pics succeeded in unexpected places.
South Korea turned out to be the best foreign market for
"Transformers," raking in more than $50 million. Moreover, studios
kept most of their non-franchise product out of theaters
internationally for most of the summer, which helped focus the
audience on the blockbusters.
The schedule.
The first of August usually marks a Maginot line at the box office,
after which studios dump their least-promising product. But with
"Bourne," "Rush Hour 3" and "Superbad" debuting, the month had viable
material, and audiences responded. There still were pics like "The
Invasion," but the dog days of summer were shorter this year.
The weather.
Is global warming good for Hollywood? Extreme heat and heavy rain
across large swaths of the U.S. sent more people to theaters, looking
for relief. The onset of the extreme weather -- record-breaking
temperatures in the western U.S., rain up and down the Eastern
seaboard, the Midwest and Texas -- started at the end of June, just as
the box office was starting to see a bump. "You went from dreadful
heat to downpours," Snyder says. "Historically, we've seen a bounce in
grosses when the weather is bad. Also, when kids can't go outside, and
make their parents nuts, they send them to the movies."
Escapism.
War, scandal, disaster. That's all you see in the news. People just
want to escape. They'll avoid "The Mighty Heart" in favor of talking
rats. It seems like a great explanation, full of cultural
pontification, intellectual heft and societal angst. That is, until
you remember what was in the news in the tepid summer of 2005: War,
scandal, disaster.
Actually, the movies weren't that great.
According to some, all these theories are wrong. There's one school of
thought that says things weren't so hot this summer. You had mixed
reviews for "Spider-Man 3," an incomprehensible "Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World's End," and way too many sequels to think that
Hollywood had any ounce left of originality. "There could have been a
huge bump," says the head of one production shingle. "As it was, we
had an OK bump."
--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net