S
Sam Hill
Guest
Global Warming: Nine Things that Will Put us Over the Edge
By Steve Connor, The Independent UK. Posted February 8, 2008.
Scientists have identified nine 'tipping points' of climate change.
Nine ways in which the Earth could be tipped into a potentially dangerous
state that could last for many centuries have been identified by scientists
investigating how quickly global warming could run out of control.
A major international investigation by dozens of leading climate scientists
has found that the "tipping points" for all nine scenarios -- such as the
melting of the Arctic sea ice or the disappearance of the Amazon rainforest
-- could occur within the next 100 years.
The scientists warn that climate change is likely to result in sudden and
dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth if
global average temperatures continue to rise as a result of the predicted
increase in emissions of man-made greenhouse gases.
Most and probably all of the nine scenarios are likely to be irreversible on
a human timescale once they pass a certain threshold of change, and the
widespread effects of the transition to the new state will be felt for
generations to come, the scientists said.
"Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections
of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety
of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century
under anthropogenic [man-made] climate change," they report in the journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study came out of a 2005 meeting of 36 leading climate scientists who
drew on the expertise of a further 52 specialists. It is believed to be the
first time that scientists have attempted to assess the risks of what they
have termed "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system.
The nine elements range from the melting of polar ice sheets to the collapse
of the Indian and West African monsoons. The effects of the changes could be
equally varied, from a dramatic rise in sea levels that flood coastal
regions to widespread crop failures and famine. Some of the tipping points
may be close at hand, such as the point at which the disappearance of the
summer sea ice in the Arctic becomes inevitable, whereas others, such as the
tipping point for the destruction of northern boreal forests, may take
several more decades to be reached.
While scenarios such as the collapse of the Indian monsoon could occur
within a few years, others, such as the melting of the Greenland ice cap or
the West Antarctic ice sheet, may take several centuries to complete. "Our
findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their
critical point in this century under human-induced climate change," said
Professor Timothy Lenton, of the University of East Anglia, who led the
study.
A tipping point is defined as the point where a small increase in
temperature or other change in the climate could trigger a
disproportionately larger change in the future. Although there are many
potential tipping points that could occur this century, it is still possible
to avoid them with cuts in greenhouse gases, said Professor Lenton.
He added: "But we should be prepared to adapt ... and to design an
early-warning system that alerts us to them in time."
Irreversible changes
Arctic sea ice: some scientists believe that the tipping point for the
total loss of summer sea ice is imminent.
Greenland ice sheet: total melting could take 300 years or more but the
tipping point that could see irreversible change might occur within 50
years.
West Antarctic ice sheet: scientists believe it could unexpectedly
collapse if it slips into the sea at its warming edges.
Gulf Stream: few scientists believe it could be switched off completely
this century but its collapse is a possibility.
El Ni
By Steve Connor, The Independent UK. Posted February 8, 2008.
Scientists have identified nine 'tipping points' of climate change.
Nine ways in which the Earth could be tipped into a potentially dangerous
state that could last for many centuries have been identified by scientists
investigating how quickly global warming could run out of control.
A major international investigation by dozens of leading climate scientists
has found that the "tipping points" for all nine scenarios -- such as the
melting of the Arctic sea ice or the disappearance of the Amazon rainforest
-- could occur within the next 100 years.
The scientists warn that climate change is likely to result in sudden and
dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth if
global average temperatures continue to rise as a result of the predicted
increase in emissions of man-made greenhouse gases.
Most and probably all of the nine scenarios are likely to be irreversible on
a human timescale once they pass a certain threshold of change, and the
widespread effects of the transition to the new state will be felt for
generations to come, the scientists said.
"Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections
of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety
of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century
under anthropogenic [man-made] climate change," they report in the journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study came out of a 2005 meeting of 36 leading climate scientists who
drew on the expertise of a further 52 specialists. It is believed to be the
first time that scientists have attempted to assess the risks of what they
have termed "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system.
The nine elements range from the melting of polar ice sheets to the collapse
of the Indian and West African monsoons. The effects of the changes could be
equally varied, from a dramatic rise in sea levels that flood coastal
regions to widespread crop failures and famine. Some of the tipping points
may be close at hand, such as the point at which the disappearance of the
summer sea ice in the Arctic becomes inevitable, whereas others, such as the
tipping point for the destruction of northern boreal forests, may take
several more decades to be reached.
While scenarios such as the collapse of the Indian monsoon could occur
within a few years, others, such as the melting of the Greenland ice cap or
the West Antarctic ice sheet, may take several centuries to complete. "Our
findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their
critical point in this century under human-induced climate change," said
Professor Timothy Lenton, of the University of East Anglia, who led the
study.
A tipping point is defined as the point where a small increase in
temperature or other change in the climate could trigger a
disproportionately larger change in the future. Although there are many
potential tipping points that could occur this century, it is still possible
to avoid them with cuts in greenhouse gases, said Professor Lenton.
He added: "But we should be prepared to adapt ... and to design an
early-warning system that alerts us to them in time."
Irreversible changes
Arctic sea ice: some scientists believe that the tipping point for the
total loss of summer sea ice is imminent.
Greenland ice sheet: total melting could take 300 years or more but the
tipping point that could see irreversible change might occur within 50
years.
West Antarctic ice sheet: scientists believe it could unexpectedly
collapse if it slips into the sea at its warming edges.
Gulf Stream: few scientists believe it could be switched off completely
this century but its collapse is a possibility.
El Ni
