C
Captain Compassion
Guest
Global warming will step up after 2009: scientists
By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
Thu Aug 9, 2:09 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global warming is forecast to set in with a
vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years
expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record,
scientists reported on Thursday.
Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the
21st century spurred by the greenhouse effect, but this new study gets
more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that
started in 2005.
To make this kind of prediction, researchers at Britain's Met Office
-- which deals with meteorology -- made a computer model that takes
into account such natural phenomena as the El Nino pattern in the
Pacific Ocean and other fluctuations in ocean circulation and heat
content.
A forecast of the next decade is particularly useful, because climate
could be dominated over this period by these natural changes, rather
than human-caused global warming, study author Douglas Smith said by
telephone.
In research published in the journal Science, Smith and his colleagues
predicted that the next three or four years would show little warming
despite an overall forecast that saw warming over the decade.
"There is ... particular interest in the coming decade, which
represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades,
insurance, energy policy and business development," Smith and his
co-authors noted.
The real heat will start after 2009, they said.
Until then, the natural forces will offset the expected warming caused
by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which
releases the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.
"HINDCASTS" FOR THE FUTURE
"There is ... particular interest in the coming decade, which
represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades,
insurance, energy policy and business development," Smith and his
co-authors noted.
To check their models, the scientists used a series of "hindcasts" --
forecasts that look back in time -- going back to 1982, and compared
what their models predicted with what actually occurred.
Factoring in the natural variability of ocean currents and temperature
fluctuations yielded an accurate picture, the researchers found. This
differed from other models which mainly considered human-caused
climate change.
"Over the 100-year timescale, the main change is going to come from
greenhouse gases that will dominate natural variability, but in the
coming 10 years the natural internal variability is comparable," Smith
said.
In another climate change article in the online journal Science
Express, U.S. researchers reported that soot from industry and forest
fires had a dramatic impact on the Arctic climate, starting around the
time of the Industrial Revolution.
Industrial pollution brought a seven-fold increase in soot -- also
known as black carbon -- in Arctic snow during the late 19th and early
20th centuries, scientists at the Desert Research Institute found.
Soot, mostly from burning coal, reduces the reflectivity of snow and
ice, letting Earth's surface absorb more solar energy and possibly
resulting in earlier snow melts and exposure of much darker underlying
soil, rock and sea ice. This in turn led to warming across much of the
Arctic region.
At its height from 1906 to 1910, estimated warming from soot on Arctic
snow was eight times that of the pre-industrial era, the researchers
said.
--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
Thu Aug 9, 2:09 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global warming is forecast to set in with a
vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years
expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record,
scientists reported on Thursday.
Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the
21st century spurred by the greenhouse effect, but this new study gets
more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that
started in 2005.
To make this kind of prediction, researchers at Britain's Met Office
-- which deals with meteorology -- made a computer model that takes
into account such natural phenomena as the El Nino pattern in the
Pacific Ocean and other fluctuations in ocean circulation and heat
content.
A forecast of the next decade is particularly useful, because climate
could be dominated over this period by these natural changes, rather
than human-caused global warming, study author Douglas Smith said by
telephone.
In research published in the journal Science, Smith and his colleagues
predicted that the next three or four years would show little warming
despite an overall forecast that saw warming over the decade.
"There is ... particular interest in the coming decade, which
represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades,
insurance, energy policy and business development," Smith and his
co-authors noted.
The real heat will start after 2009, they said.
Until then, the natural forces will offset the expected warming caused
by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which
releases the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.
"HINDCASTS" FOR THE FUTURE
"There is ... particular interest in the coming decade, which
represents a key planning horizon for infrastructure upgrades,
insurance, energy policy and business development," Smith and his
co-authors noted.
To check their models, the scientists used a series of "hindcasts" --
forecasts that look back in time -- going back to 1982, and compared
what their models predicted with what actually occurred.
Factoring in the natural variability of ocean currents and temperature
fluctuations yielded an accurate picture, the researchers found. This
differed from other models which mainly considered human-caused
climate change.
"Over the 100-year timescale, the main change is going to come from
greenhouse gases that will dominate natural variability, but in the
coming 10 years the natural internal variability is comparable," Smith
said.
In another climate change article in the online journal Science
Express, U.S. researchers reported that soot from industry and forest
fires had a dramatic impact on the Arctic climate, starting around the
time of the Industrial Revolution.
Industrial pollution brought a seven-fold increase in soot -- also
known as black carbon -- in Arctic snow during the late 19th and early
20th centuries, scientists at the Desert Research Institute found.
Soot, mostly from burning coal, reduces the reflectivity of snow and
ice, letting Earth's surface absorb more solar energy and possibly
resulting in earlier snow melts and exposure of much darker underlying
soil, rock and sea ice. This in turn led to warming across much of the
Arctic region.
At its height from 1906 to 1910, estimated warming from soot on Arctic
snow was eight times that of the pre-industrial era, the researchers
said.
--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
