C
Captain Compassion
Guest
Green Fuels Will Save the Earth - Or Not
CHINA: October 8, 2007
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/44686/story.htm
HONG KONG - The earth is too small to accommodate all the biofuels
projects envisioned for the globe, and this raises doubts whether
green fuels will ever play a big role in weaning the world off crude
oil.
The idea of producing an endless supply of inexpensive fuel from what
sprouts from the soil seemed almost too good to be true for a world
worried about global warming, caused in part by the burning of fossil
fuels.
And perhaps it is. It has become increasingly clear that it will not
be possible to grow enough crops to cover global demand for food and
fuel, especially as water is becoming scarce and pressure is mounting
from the environmental lobby to conserve tropical rainforests and
wildlife.
Over the past year, a biofuel boom worldwide has already sharply
boosted agricultural prices, sparking worries over food supply as the
world's population continues to grow.
David Jackson, an analyst at LMC International Ltd in London,
calculated that the world would need an additional 100 million
hectares of farmland if all countries were to blend 5 percent of
biofuels into the cars --- as many envisage by 2015.
The required land, about half the size of Indonesia, would match
roughly the total additional land available for farming on earth,
including remote areas of Africa or Brazil.
"There's no perfect solution for ethanol or biodiesel from food crops,
or from agriculture," Jackson told Reuters. "In total the amount of
land available is roughly 100 million hectares worldwide ... But
that's not all going to be developed."
The analysts said that while sugar was the most land-efficient
feedstock for ethanol, it needed plenty of water.
It would take several years before the commercial use of the next
generation technology, which would turn agricultural waste into fuel
ethanol, they said.
For biodiesel, there is also no alternative feedstock to edible oils,
such as palm oil or soyoil, in the foreseeable future, despite an
enthusiasm for non-edible oils from oilseed plants like jatropha in
countries such as India and China.
DREAM OR NIGHTMARE?
Another reason why the green dream is fading lies with the rocky
economics of biofuel.
Oil prices have soared 40 percent this year but once-lowly palm oil
has jumped by two-thirds. So now palm oil costs an astonishing US$735
a tonne, making crude a bargain at about US$593 a tonne.
Even in the United States, the world's top ethanol producer where the
government provides generous subsidies, profits are squeezed at
biofuel plants by high corn costs and low ethanol prices.
In Southeast Asia, home to the world's top producers of palm oil --
the most land-efficient vegetable oil -- many biodiesel projects have
been also put on backburner due to the poor returns.
"While there has been a lot of optimism and bullishness for biofuels
in 2006 ... a lot of announced plants have not transpired into actual
construction," said Cherie Tan, vice president for corporate banking
at Rabobank in Singapore.
"Many investors people have a wait-and-see approach now."
Tan estimated that less than a half of biofuels projects in the region
had materialised, with total annual capacity in the region estimated
around 250,000 tonnes.
INLFATION WOES
The rise in raw material prices for palm and corn is also setting off
alarm bells for governments worried about the rising cost of basic
foods.
Frank Gunstone, honorary professor at Scottish Crop Research
Institute, said the world would need an additional 10 million tonnes
of vegetable oils a year to meet demand from both the food and fuel
sectors.
Global output of vegetable oils rose to 153 million in the last crop
year from 100 million tonnes 10 years earlier. But the annual increase
was 9 million tonnes at best, falling short of the required 10 million
this decade.
"The shortfall will impinge on prices and is already doing so,"
Gunstone said.
To avoid the competition from the food sector, D1 Oils Plc a UK-based
biodiesel maker, has picked jatropha, planting 175,000 hectares
worldwide, including in India and Africa.
Graham Prince, a spokesman for D1 Oils, said though jatropha could be
grown on barren, marginal land, it has yet to be developed into a
commercial crop. Its leaves, nuts and seeds were toxic, yields random
and it required hand-harvesting.
"We are right at the beginning of the history of jatropha as a
commercial crop," he said.
"But just in the first step we have taken, we have seen a more than 50
pct increase on the performance of the wild seed ... This gives us a
lot of hope of what jatropha could do in future."
--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
CHINA: October 8, 2007
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/44686/story.htm
HONG KONG - The earth is too small to accommodate all the biofuels
projects envisioned for the globe, and this raises doubts whether
green fuels will ever play a big role in weaning the world off crude
oil.
The idea of producing an endless supply of inexpensive fuel from what
sprouts from the soil seemed almost too good to be true for a world
worried about global warming, caused in part by the burning of fossil
fuels.
And perhaps it is. It has become increasingly clear that it will not
be possible to grow enough crops to cover global demand for food and
fuel, especially as water is becoming scarce and pressure is mounting
from the environmental lobby to conserve tropical rainforests and
wildlife.
Over the past year, a biofuel boom worldwide has already sharply
boosted agricultural prices, sparking worries over food supply as the
world's population continues to grow.
David Jackson, an analyst at LMC International Ltd in London,
calculated that the world would need an additional 100 million
hectares of farmland if all countries were to blend 5 percent of
biofuels into the cars --- as many envisage by 2015.
The required land, about half the size of Indonesia, would match
roughly the total additional land available for farming on earth,
including remote areas of Africa or Brazil.
"There's no perfect solution for ethanol or biodiesel from food crops,
or from agriculture," Jackson told Reuters. "In total the amount of
land available is roughly 100 million hectares worldwide ... But
that's not all going to be developed."
The analysts said that while sugar was the most land-efficient
feedstock for ethanol, it needed plenty of water.
It would take several years before the commercial use of the next
generation technology, which would turn agricultural waste into fuel
ethanol, they said.
For biodiesel, there is also no alternative feedstock to edible oils,
such as palm oil or soyoil, in the foreseeable future, despite an
enthusiasm for non-edible oils from oilseed plants like jatropha in
countries such as India and China.
DREAM OR NIGHTMARE?
Another reason why the green dream is fading lies with the rocky
economics of biofuel.
Oil prices have soared 40 percent this year but once-lowly palm oil
has jumped by two-thirds. So now palm oil costs an astonishing US$735
a tonne, making crude a bargain at about US$593 a tonne.
Even in the United States, the world's top ethanol producer where the
government provides generous subsidies, profits are squeezed at
biofuel plants by high corn costs and low ethanol prices.
In Southeast Asia, home to the world's top producers of palm oil --
the most land-efficient vegetable oil -- many biodiesel projects have
been also put on backburner due to the poor returns.
"While there has been a lot of optimism and bullishness for biofuels
in 2006 ... a lot of announced plants have not transpired into actual
construction," said Cherie Tan, vice president for corporate banking
at Rabobank in Singapore.
"Many investors people have a wait-and-see approach now."
Tan estimated that less than a half of biofuels projects in the region
had materialised, with total annual capacity in the region estimated
around 250,000 tonnes.
INLFATION WOES
The rise in raw material prices for palm and corn is also setting off
alarm bells for governments worried about the rising cost of basic
foods.
Frank Gunstone, honorary professor at Scottish Crop Research
Institute, said the world would need an additional 10 million tonnes
of vegetable oils a year to meet demand from both the food and fuel
sectors.
Global output of vegetable oils rose to 153 million in the last crop
year from 100 million tonnes 10 years earlier. But the annual increase
was 9 million tonnes at best, falling short of the required 10 million
this decade.
"The shortfall will impinge on prices and is already doing so,"
Gunstone said.
To avoid the competition from the food sector, D1 Oils Plc a UK-based
biodiesel maker, has picked jatropha, planting 175,000 hectares
worldwide, including in India and Africa.
Graham Prince, a spokesman for D1 Oils, said though jatropha could be
grown on barren, marginal land, it has yet to be developed into a
commercial crop. Its leaves, nuts and seeds were toxic, yields random
and it required hand-harvesting.
"We are right at the beginning of the history of jatropha as a
commercial crop," he said.
"But just in the first step we have taken, we have seen a more than 50
pct increase on the performance of the wild seed ... This gives us a
lot of hope of what jatropha could do in future."
--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
