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Obama pulls ahead for Democrats in Iowa Poll
By THOMAS BEAUMONT . REGISTER STAFF WRITER . Copyright 2007, Des Moines
Register and Tribune Company December 1, 2007
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa's Democratic presidential
caucuses, while the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped
to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines
Register's new Iowa Poll.
Huckabee, Obama now lead
Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains
very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of
likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their
minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll
as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in
October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25
percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll,
held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way
battle.
The lead change appears after weeks of increasing criticism of Clinton by
Obama and Edwards about her position on U.S. policy toward Iran and
questions of her candor.
Meanwhile, Clinton has recently begun accusing Obama of inexperience and
criticizing his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.
The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three
candidates and the remainder of the field. The telephone survey of 500
likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 25 to 28 and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for
Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.
Obama spent weeks in October and November attacking Clinton's support for a
measure that allowed President Bush to declare the Iran's Revolutionary
Guard a terrorist organization, a move Obama said was a step toward war.
Clinton said the measure enhanced U.S. negotiating strength with Iran.
"An Iran war terrifies me," said Browne, a 30-year-old University of Iowa
student.
Browne said she feels Obama is a more inspirational candidate than Clinton,
despite the intensifying crossfire between them.
"I just think that Obama is more of a positive candidate overall," she said.
"Aside from the Clinton-Obama interaction lately, it's nice to hear a
candidate with a positive outlook. I think our country needs that right
now."
Browne, who supported Clinton early partly out of gender loyalty, represents
a shift among some women caucusgoers from Clinton to Obama.
In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely
attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, Clinton
was the preferred candidate of 34 percent of women caucusgoers, compared to
21 percent for Obama.
Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the
new poll.
Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48 percent
from those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19 percent in that
group and Edwards of 17 percent.
The under-35 bloc represents 14 percent of Democratic caucusgoers, up from 9
percent in the October poll.
Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among
people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.
Clinton is the top choice among caucusgoers 55 years old and older. The
largest share of Democratic caucusgoers exactly half are in this age group.
Pleasant Hill Democrat Jack Hill is one of them. The 61-year-old salesman
said Clinton is battle-tested and capable of bringing about changes on the
domestic and international fronts.
"She's a tough old cookie," said Hill. "She's a tough woman and I feel we
need a change from politics as usual."
Clinton continued to rate highest on key traits, such as most presidential,
knowledgeable about the world, electable and experienced. She also was seen
as the most ego-driven and negative.
Clinton and Obama were viewed as the most committed to public service, while
Obama led on traits such as most likeable, principled and best able bring
together Republicans and Democrats.
The former first lady continues to face stubborn misgivings, despite her
dozens of visits to the state this year and increasing campaign presence of
her husband, the popular former president.
Thirty percent of Democratic caucusgoers viewed Sen. Clinton as either
mostly or very unfavorably, behind U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and
former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel. She topped the list of candidates whose
nomination would be one of the biggest disappointments at 27 percent.
Other troubling news for Clinton included a sharp decline in support from
members of union households, where she was the preferred candidate with
support from 34 percent in the October poll. In the new poll, Clinton is
third among union households with 21 percent.
Obama and Edwards have recently criticized Clinton's past support for the
North American Free Trade Agreement, which they argue cost the United States
millions of jobs. Clinton has said recently the trade pact, enacted during
her husband's first term, did not deliver.
Obama's support among caucusgoers from union households rose from 20 percent
to 28 percent since the October poll, while Edwards narrowly led, rising
from 24 percent to 29 percent since the October poll.
Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses, led narrowly among men in
the new poll and was tied with Clinton for the favorite in Iowa's rural
areas. Rural Centerville Democrat Candace Scritchfield supported Edwards in
2004 and plans to again.
"He's a very down-to-earth and trustworthy person," said Scritchfield, a
44-year-old homemaker. "He has a lot of loyalty, that I can tell."
There was little movement in the rest of the field, despite aggressive
campaigning in Iowa in the eight weeks between the two polls.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9
percent and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6 percent, both
virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 2
percent or less.
Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a
candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to
support.
--
Quote Of The Week
"The Clintons Are A Terminally Unethical And Vulgar Couple, And They?ve
Betrayed Everyone Who Has Ever Believed In Them." - Bob Herbert, Columnist
NY Times Clinton
By THOMAS BEAUMONT . REGISTER STAFF WRITER . Copyright 2007, Des Moines
Register and Tribune Company December 1, 2007
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa's Democratic presidential
caucuses, while the party's national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped
to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines
Register's new Iowa Poll.
Huckabee, Obama now lead
Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains
very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of
likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their
minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll
as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in
October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25
percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll,
held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way
battle.
The lead change appears after weeks of increasing criticism of Clinton by
Obama and Edwards about her position on U.S. policy toward Iran and
questions of her candor.
Meanwhile, Clinton has recently begun accusing Obama of inexperience and
criticizing his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.
The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three
candidates and the remainder of the field. The telephone survey of 500
likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Nov. 25 to 28 and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for
Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.
Obama spent weeks in October and November attacking Clinton's support for a
measure that allowed President Bush to declare the Iran's Revolutionary
Guard a terrorist organization, a move Obama said was a step toward war.
Clinton said the measure enhanced U.S. negotiating strength with Iran.
"An Iran war terrifies me," said Browne, a 30-year-old University of Iowa
student.
Browne said she feels Obama is a more inspirational candidate than Clinton,
despite the intensifying crossfire between them.
"I just think that Obama is more of a positive candidate overall," she said.
"Aside from the Clinton-Obama interaction lately, it's nice to hear a
candidate with a positive outlook. I think our country needs that right
now."
Browne, who supported Clinton early partly out of gender loyalty, represents
a shift among some women caucusgoers from Clinton to Obama.
In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely
attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, Clinton
was the preferred candidate of 34 percent of women caucusgoers, compared to
21 percent for Obama.
Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the
new poll.
Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48 percent
from those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19 percent in that
group and Edwards of 17 percent.
The under-35 bloc represents 14 percent of Democratic caucusgoers, up from 9
percent in the October poll.
Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among
people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.
Clinton is the top choice among caucusgoers 55 years old and older. The
largest share of Democratic caucusgoers exactly half are in this age group.
Pleasant Hill Democrat Jack Hill is one of them. The 61-year-old salesman
said Clinton is battle-tested and capable of bringing about changes on the
domestic and international fronts.
"She's a tough old cookie," said Hill. "She's a tough woman and I feel we
need a change from politics as usual."
Clinton continued to rate highest on key traits, such as most presidential,
knowledgeable about the world, electable and experienced. She also was seen
as the most ego-driven and negative.
Clinton and Obama were viewed as the most committed to public service, while
Obama led on traits such as most likeable, principled and best able bring
together Republicans and Democrats.
The former first lady continues to face stubborn misgivings, despite her
dozens of visits to the state this year and increasing campaign presence of
her husband, the popular former president.
Thirty percent of Democratic caucusgoers viewed Sen. Clinton as either
mostly or very unfavorably, behind U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and
former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel. She topped the list of candidates whose
nomination would be one of the biggest disappointments at 27 percent.
Other troubling news for Clinton included a sharp decline in support from
members of union households, where she was the preferred candidate with
support from 34 percent in the October poll. In the new poll, Clinton is
third among union households with 21 percent.
Obama and Edwards have recently criticized Clinton's past support for the
North American Free Trade Agreement, which they argue cost the United States
millions of jobs. Clinton has said recently the trade pact, enacted during
her husband's first term, did not deliver.
Obama's support among caucusgoers from union households rose from 20 percent
to 28 percent since the October poll, while Edwards narrowly led, rising
from 24 percent to 29 percent since the October poll.
Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses, led narrowly among men in
the new poll and was tied with Clinton for the favorite in Iowa's rural
areas. Rural Centerville Democrat Candace Scritchfield supported Edwards in
2004 and plans to again.
"He's a very down-to-earth and trustworthy person," said Scritchfield, a
44-year-old homemaker. "He has a lot of loyalty, that I can tell."
There was little movement in the rest of the field, despite aggressive
campaigning in Iowa in the eight weeks between the two polls.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9
percent and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6 percent, both
virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 2
percent or less.
Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a
candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to
support.
--
Quote Of The Week
"The Clintons Are A Terminally Unethical And Vulgar Couple, And They?ve
Betrayed Everyone Who Has Ever Believed In Them." - Bob Herbert, Columnist
NY Times Clinton
