G
Gandalf Grey
Guest
I Predict Hillary Will Withdraw and Her Stature Will Soar
By Brent Budowsky
Created Apr 11 2008 - 9:09pm
Ignore everything you hear on cable talk shows. This is what will happen,
and why.
First, sometime between the days after the Pennsylvania primary and the days
after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton will drop out of the
presidential campaign, endorse Obama, and watch her stature among Democrats
and independents soar.
Second. The campaign is over. Period. The only way that Hillary can win is,
to quote a former Louisiana governor, if Barack Obama gets caught in bed
with a live man or dead woman. Nothing is impossible, bad news could strike
either candidate, but is it highly unlikely and nothing Hillary can do would
change this equation.
Third. The Clintons know this. Any pundit talk to the contrary is
pathetically out of touch with reality, as most pundit talk on television
is. What is happening now is a Clintonian exit strategy. If Hillary does
withdraw as I predict, when I predict, her popularity skyrockets and her
negatives among Democrats and many independents fall substantially. In the
unlikely event lightning strikes against Obama, Hillary is still around with
far higher positives.
Fourth, Hillary only hurts herself by attacking Obama with questionable
tactics. Her negative ratings go through the roof. Presidents cannot be
elected this way. Period. End of discussion.
Any ignorant or trite talk to the contary from the pundit class, who have so
often praised negative tactics as brilliant that were totally destructive to
Hillary, are nothing more than gaseous emissions that contribute to global
warming.
I repeat: Hillary's negative attacks against Obama hurt her numbers more
than Obama's.
Fifth, there is a very clear pattern to the polling over the last three
months almost without exception. When Hillary takes cheap shots at Obama,
Obama remains nearly even to slightly ahead of Hillary, while both
candidates lose to McCain.
When Hillary avoids the cheap shots, which to her credit she has been doing
the last few days, the Obama lead over Hillary rises, but both Hillary and
Obama defeat McCain.
Sixth, any discussion that Hillary might prefer McCain defeat Obama, which
some of her attacks give credence to, are politically deadly to Hillary's
ambitions long term and short term.
Conversly, if Hillary drops out as I predict, when I predict, not only do
her favorables move far up and her negatives move far down, but she would
get a fair share of credit for an Obama general election win, with no risk
of blame for a McCain win that would be politically deadly to Hillary.
Many (but not all) Clinton insiders generally agree with these assessments,
and anyone who says anything to the contrary on the talk shows is either
lying or not wired in.
Obviously events can change the fortune of either candidate, any day, but
the most likely scenario is that Hillary drops out within the month and
later concludes it was the wisest decision she would ever make.
For Hillary the presidential dream is not dead. This is not her year. If
Obama loses, with the scenario descibed here, she has a huge shot in 2012,
without Hillary being blamed for 2008. If Obama wins, under my scenario,
Hillary has a very good shot in 2016 and many very good career options
between now and then.
--
NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which has not
always been authorized by the copyright owner. I am making such material
available to advance understanding of
political, human rights, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues. I
believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright
Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107
"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson
By Brent Budowsky
Created Apr 11 2008 - 9:09pm
Ignore everything you hear on cable talk shows. This is what will happen,
and why.
First, sometime between the days after the Pennsylvania primary and the days
after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton will drop out of the
presidential campaign, endorse Obama, and watch her stature among Democrats
and independents soar.
Second. The campaign is over. Period. The only way that Hillary can win is,
to quote a former Louisiana governor, if Barack Obama gets caught in bed
with a live man or dead woman. Nothing is impossible, bad news could strike
either candidate, but is it highly unlikely and nothing Hillary can do would
change this equation.
Third. The Clintons know this. Any pundit talk to the contrary is
pathetically out of touch with reality, as most pundit talk on television
is. What is happening now is a Clintonian exit strategy. If Hillary does
withdraw as I predict, when I predict, her popularity skyrockets and her
negatives among Democrats and many independents fall substantially. In the
unlikely event lightning strikes against Obama, Hillary is still around with
far higher positives.
Fourth, Hillary only hurts herself by attacking Obama with questionable
tactics. Her negative ratings go through the roof. Presidents cannot be
elected this way. Period. End of discussion.
Any ignorant or trite talk to the contary from the pundit class, who have so
often praised negative tactics as brilliant that were totally destructive to
Hillary, are nothing more than gaseous emissions that contribute to global
warming.
I repeat: Hillary's negative attacks against Obama hurt her numbers more
than Obama's.
Fifth, there is a very clear pattern to the polling over the last three
months almost without exception. When Hillary takes cheap shots at Obama,
Obama remains nearly even to slightly ahead of Hillary, while both
candidates lose to McCain.
When Hillary avoids the cheap shots, which to her credit she has been doing
the last few days, the Obama lead over Hillary rises, but both Hillary and
Obama defeat McCain.
Sixth, any discussion that Hillary might prefer McCain defeat Obama, which
some of her attacks give credence to, are politically deadly to Hillary's
ambitions long term and short term.
Conversly, if Hillary drops out as I predict, when I predict, not only do
her favorables move far up and her negatives move far down, but she would
get a fair share of credit for an Obama general election win, with no risk
of blame for a McCain win that would be politically deadly to Hillary.
Many (but not all) Clinton insiders generally agree with these assessments,
and anyone who says anything to the contrary on the talk shows is either
lying or not wired in.
Obviously events can change the fortune of either candidate, any day, but
the most likely scenario is that Hillary drops out within the month and
later concludes it was the wisest decision she would ever make.
For Hillary the presidential dream is not dead. This is not her year. If
Obama loses, with the scenario descibed here, she has a huge shot in 2012,
without Hillary being blamed for 2008. If Obama wins, under my scenario,
Hillary has a very good shot in 2016 and many very good career options
between now and then.
--
NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which has not
always been authorized by the copyright owner. I am making such material
available to advance understanding of
political, human rights, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues. I
believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright
Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107
"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson
