Iowa Could Make or Break Socialist Democrats

http://www.newsmax.com/politics/dems_road_to_the_nomination/2007/12/29/60468.html

Iowa Could Make or Break Democrats

Saturday, December 29, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Iowa could make or break a Democratic candidate on

Thursday. The question is, who?

[Her:

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While the state has long played a key role in choosing the Democratic

presidential nominee, it has unparalleled influence this year, even after

several larger states moved up their contests to try and muscle in. Those

efforts have done little more than compress the calendar into a five-week

sprint that ends with the multistate primary Feb. 5 _ strengthening Iowa's

position as the leadoff caucus state rather than diminishing it.

Even New Hampshire, which holds the first primary of the season, has seen

its once-mighty position diminished somewhat by Iowa's outsized role this

time.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are locked in a tight

three-way contest in Iowa just days before voters attend their precinct

caucuses on Thursday. And while all three have strong organizations in other

early states, the best laid plans in those places could come apart depending

on what happens in Iowa.

Only Obama and Clinton have raised enough campaign cash to be sure of being

competitive through Feb. 5 and beyond. Edwards has agreed to accept federal

matching funds, which will constrain the amount of money he is allowed to

spend in each state.

Trailing in the polls, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have also

concentrated nearly all their resources in Iowa in hopes of scoring an

upset.

The impact of unexpected news events, such as the assassination of former

Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, may further complicate a fluid

situation.

Here's a look at what to expect in the next several weeks:

___

IOWA _ Jan 3 (45 pledged delegates)

All six major Democratic candidates will blitz the state before next

Thursday's caucuses. Hundreds of staff and volunteers from each campaign

will flood likely caucus goers with mail, visits and phone calls. The

television airwaves have been saturated for weeks with advertising.

Clinton, who has struggled in Iowa despite leading the field in national and

most other state polls, has the most riding on the outcome here. A win could

fuel a wave of momentum for the former first lady, while a loss,

particularly to Obama, would shatter the notion of inevitability she has

tried to project.

The New York senator is barnstorming the state and has deployed dozens of

surrogates including her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Her closing

argument _ "It's time to pick a president" _ underscores her central

message: A candidate like Obama may inspire and move voters, but Clinton is

the best prepared to actually do the job.

Obama and Edwards are competing to be the strongest "anti-Clinton" candidate

in the field. Both are promising to bring fundamental change to Washington.

Edwards' base of support lies with caucus goers who were with him when he

ran for president in 2004. Obama and Clinton are competing for newcomers _

hers are mostly older and female, his are younger and male.

Spending by outside groups has added a new dimension to the contest. EMILY'S

List, AFSCME and the American Federation of Teachers are coordinating to

boost Clinton through mail, TV and phone banks, while Edwards is receiving

assistance from labor-backed groups headed by his 2004 campaign manager.

Obama has called on Edwards to ask the groups to cease their work in Iowa,

and privately Obama's advisers fret that he is being hurt by the influx of

spending on the other candidates' behalf.

___

NEW HAMPSHIRE _ Jan. 8 (22 pledged delegates)

The candidates are reinforcing their organizations in New Hampshire to

prepare for whatever verdict Iowa delivers.

The Clinton campaign, which had long counted on the state to be its firewall

in the event of a less-than-stellar Iowa showing, has scrambled as her lead

here has all but evaporated. The situation was further roiled when a

prominent New Hampshire supporter, Bill Shaheen, stepped down as a campaign

co-chairman after raising concerns about Obama's teenage drug use.

But Clinton has strong ties to the state thanks to her husband's 1992 and

1996 campaigns. Her organization numbers several hundred staff and

volunteers in New Hampshire, methodically working phones and canvassing.

Obama strategists say the key to victory in the state lies with independents

who can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary and who polls

show strongly oppose the Iraq war. The campaign is counting on a strong

showing among these voters but is targeting traditional Democrats as well,

making about 20,000 calls a night.

The Edwards campaign says it has four times the staff in New Hampshire that

he had in 2004, when he finished a disappointing fourth. The campaign says

its volunteers have knocked on 235,000 doors in the state, where 220,000

people voted in the primary four years ago.

___

MICHIGAN _ Jan. 15 (128 pledged delegates; national party says the state

will lose them all)

The Democratic candidates have agreed not to compete in Michigan because the

state moved the date of its primary in violation of party rules. The

Democratic National Committee has penalized the state by stripping all its

delegates, but the eventual nominee may choose to restore the delegates

prior to the convention next August.

___

NEVADA _ Jan. 19 (25 pledged delegates)

Nevada will be the first state with delegates at stake after the New

Hampshire primary and could play an important role if the race is still

competitive coming out of Northeast.

While party leaders estimate only about 40,000 voters will take part in

Nevada's caucuses, all the major candidates have spent considerable

resources here in hopes of securing a win among a Western, heavily Hispanic

electorate.

The campaigns are all counting on momentum and strong organization to fuel

their efforts here. The candidates are basing their organization on an Iowa

caucus model, building relationships precinct by precinct.

Richardson has spent more time here than any other candidate, hoping to

parlay his Hispanic heritage and proximity as governor of neighboring New

Mexico into a strong showing.

All the campaigns are vigorously competing for the backing of the Culinary

Union, which represents some 60,000 service workers along the Las Vegas

strip. The union will announce an endorsement in early January.

___

SOUTH CAROLINA _ Jan. 26 (45 pledged delegates)

The three top-tier candidates have grounds to lay claim to South Carolina _

Obama and Clinton because of their popularity among black voters, Edwards

because he was born in the state and won its primary four years ago.

Clinton and Obama have strong organizations in the state and have begun

sustained television advertising recently. Both have made a concerted effort

to woo black voters, who were 50 percent of primary voters in the state last

time; they've run ads on black radio and sought endorsements from community

leaders and black legislators.

Edwards has run television ads here since November and has made more

campaign visits than Obama or Clinton. Polls show him running a distant

third but slowly gaining ground.

___

FLORIDA _ Jan. 29 (185 pledged delegates, may be lost)

Like Michigan, Florida has been penalized for moving its primary in

violation of party rules. The national party has stripped the state of its

delegates, and the candidates have pledged not to campaign in the state,

although they have made several fundraising visits.

___

MEGA TUESDAY _ Feb. 5 (At least 20 states and 2,075 pledged delegates)

Contests from Connecticut to California on this day could end up determining

the Democratic nominee.

Clinton has seen her lead diminish somewhat in California, whose 441

delegates represent the day's largest prize. But the campaign is running

generally strong there and is targeting absentee voters who can begin

casting ballots Jan. 8.

The campaign is also building organizations in states holding caucuses on

Feb. 5, including Minnesota, Colorado and Kansas.

Obama has bolstered efforts in California, and polls show him running strong

in Georgia and Missouri. He's strongest in his home state of Illinois, while

Clinton is dominant in her home state of New York and in nearby New Jersey.