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Straw poll no-shows zap Iowa's relevance, some fear
Snubbing the state GOP's fundraiser stings, but the caucuses remain a
priority, observers say.
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
June 18, 2007
In the course of a week, the Ames straw poll went from a closely
watched early test of the Republican presidential campaigns in the
leadoff caucus state to a face-off between mostly lesser-known
candidates.
Decisions by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to skip the high-
profile Iowa Republican Party fund raising event and by Arizona Sen.
John McCain to abandon his plans to compete in the straw poll could
signal the end of the mid-August event's relevance.
And that could reduce the amount of money the state GOP will have for
its campaigns next year.
The decisions by Giuliani and McCain, who rank among the leaders in
national and Iowa polls, have also prompted questions about whether
Iowa's influential role setting the tone for the presidential
nominating campaign is slipping.
State GOP officials are awaiting word from former Tennessee Sen. Fred
Thompson, perhaps coming as early as this week, on whether he will
take part in the straw poll. That could help restore the event's
prestige, should he decide to participate.
Thompson is taking steps toward an official run, but he has not
declared an official candidacy.
In past campaigns, the straw poll gave candidates a chance to
demonstrate they were viable at a time when only an elite few party
activists were focused on the race.
But the 2008 campaign has rapidly accelerated - partly because there's
not an incumbent candidate and because of the concentration of
caucuses and primary elections in the early part of the nominating
schedule. That has already given candidates chances to prove
themselves, some national observers and neutral GOP strategists say.
"So candidate organizations, like Giuliani and McCain, already have
sort of been certified and can take or leave events like the Ames
straw poll," said Charles Jones, a senior political scholar with the
Brookings Institution.
The huge bloc of big-state primaries on the calendar right after the
caucuses - scheduled for Jan. 14 - may have influenced Giuliani and
McCain to avoid the straw poll's costly preparations.
However, the caucuses themselves remain the outsized priority of the
early nominating season, observers say.
"It's fair to argue Iowa has increased in relevance because of the
condensed primary process," Sara Taylor, a former strategist for
President Bush, said, referring to the 20-plus states whose primaries
are within three weeks of the caucuses.
The straw poll, scheduled for Aug. 11 at Iowa State University, has
become a high-profile pre-caucus tradition.
The event grew in popularity and strategic significance in 1987, 1995
and 1999, attracting the most attention eight years ago when 23,000
people voted at Hilton Coliseum.
That year the straw poll stamped its winner - Texas' then-Gov. George
W. Bush - the Iowa front-runner and forced Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth
Dole and Dan Quayle out of the race for the GOP nomination.
Giuliani's and McCain's decisions to opt out disappointed the straw
poll's planners, who were hoping a record 50,000 people would attend.
All of the candidates with active Iowa campaigns will be listed on the
ballots in the straw poll's voting machines.
Giuliani's top advisers said that instead of spending the estimated $3
million he would have budgeted for straw poll preparations, he can use
that money to cultivate support for the caucuses.
McCain's aides said their reason for opting out was that Giuliani's
absence meant the event would "not be a meaningful test."
Their decisions threaten the main source of income for a state GOP
that is reeling from a Democratic sweep in Statehouse and
gubernatorial elections last year.
"This is a huge blow to the straw poll and to the Iowa GOP,"
University of Iowa political science professor Peverill Squire said.
The no-shows translate into perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars
the state party was counting on to contribute to legislative races
next year.
In 1999, Bush paid the party $63,000 for a prime spot to pitch his
tent. The bidding this year begins at $15,000 for any of the eight GOP
candidates planning to attend who want space.
Among candidate participants, only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney is expected to have the money to pull out all the stops in
Ames.
Romney has recently finished first in two polls in Iowa and has bet
heavily on a strong showing in Ames, although he remains in fourth
place among GOP prospects in most national polls.
The other seven candidates planning to attend the straw poll are
lesser known: Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback; Chicago businessman John Cox;
former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of
California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado; and former
Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore followed McCain and Giuliani in
deciding not to compete in Ames.
Their absence also means they will not be buying blocks of thousands
of the $30 tickets to hand out to their supporters. Critics have said
the straw poll is more of a pageant than a real gauge of support.
Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa,
minimized the effect of the decisions, although the party has scaled
back its attendance forecast.
The party has been trying to promote this year's event to the general
public, and has also lined up interest groups, such as the National
Rifle Association, which are also paying for space around Hilton.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, weighing a presidential bid,
also plans to attend, while television news networks including ABC,
CBS, Fox News Channel, CNN, NBC and MSNBC have committed to covering
the event, state party officials said.
"As far as the bottom line, no, it doesn't really affect it," said
Laudner.
Other GOP activists in Iowa say the damage could signal bad news for
the party, and perhaps the end of the straw poll's prominence.
"It's a signal for the Iowa Republican Party to say we can't hold
together our largest fundraiser," said former state GOP finance
chairwoman Diane Crookham Johnson of Oskaloosa. "I think Fred Thompson
is going to be a big signal. If he decides he doesn't need to be in
it, it's probably the end of it."
Iowa has had disproportionate access to the vast majority of
candidates for president as a result of its preciously guarded role
hosting the leadoff nominating caucuses. It also has become a training
ground for political campaign workers who have gone on to work at the
highest levels of politics and government.
Snubbing the state GOP's fundraiser stings, but the caucuses remain a
priority, observers say.
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
June 18, 2007
In the course of a week, the Ames straw poll went from a closely
watched early test of the Republican presidential campaigns in the
leadoff caucus state to a face-off between mostly lesser-known
candidates.
Decisions by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to skip the high-
profile Iowa Republican Party fund raising event and by Arizona Sen.
John McCain to abandon his plans to compete in the straw poll could
signal the end of the mid-August event's relevance.
And that could reduce the amount of money the state GOP will have for
its campaigns next year.
The decisions by Giuliani and McCain, who rank among the leaders in
national and Iowa polls, have also prompted questions about whether
Iowa's influential role setting the tone for the presidential
nominating campaign is slipping.
State GOP officials are awaiting word from former Tennessee Sen. Fred
Thompson, perhaps coming as early as this week, on whether he will
take part in the straw poll. That could help restore the event's
prestige, should he decide to participate.
Thompson is taking steps toward an official run, but he has not
declared an official candidacy.
In past campaigns, the straw poll gave candidates a chance to
demonstrate they were viable at a time when only an elite few party
activists were focused on the race.
But the 2008 campaign has rapidly accelerated - partly because there's
not an incumbent candidate and because of the concentration of
caucuses and primary elections in the early part of the nominating
schedule. That has already given candidates chances to prove
themselves, some national observers and neutral GOP strategists say.
"So candidate organizations, like Giuliani and McCain, already have
sort of been certified and can take or leave events like the Ames
straw poll," said Charles Jones, a senior political scholar with the
Brookings Institution.
The huge bloc of big-state primaries on the calendar right after the
caucuses - scheduled for Jan. 14 - may have influenced Giuliani and
McCain to avoid the straw poll's costly preparations.
However, the caucuses themselves remain the outsized priority of the
early nominating season, observers say.
"It's fair to argue Iowa has increased in relevance because of the
condensed primary process," Sara Taylor, a former strategist for
President Bush, said, referring to the 20-plus states whose primaries
are within three weeks of the caucuses.
The straw poll, scheduled for Aug. 11 at Iowa State University, has
become a high-profile pre-caucus tradition.
The event grew in popularity and strategic significance in 1987, 1995
and 1999, attracting the most attention eight years ago when 23,000
people voted at Hilton Coliseum.
That year the straw poll stamped its winner - Texas' then-Gov. George
W. Bush - the Iowa front-runner and forced Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth
Dole and Dan Quayle out of the race for the GOP nomination.
Giuliani's and McCain's decisions to opt out disappointed the straw
poll's planners, who were hoping a record 50,000 people would attend.
All of the candidates with active Iowa campaigns will be listed on the
ballots in the straw poll's voting machines.
Giuliani's top advisers said that instead of spending the estimated $3
million he would have budgeted for straw poll preparations, he can use
that money to cultivate support for the caucuses.
McCain's aides said their reason for opting out was that Giuliani's
absence meant the event would "not be a meaningful test."
Their decisions threaten the main source of income for a state GOP
that is reeling from a Democratic sweep in Statehouse and
gubernatorial elections last year.
"This is a huge blow to the straw poll and to the Iowa GOP,"
University of Iowa political science professor Peverill Squire said.
The no-shows translate into perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars
the state party was counting on to contribute to legislative races
next year.
In 1999, Bush paid the party $63,000 for a prime spot to pitch his
tent. The bidding this year begins at $15,000 for any of the eight GOP
candidates planning to attend who want space.
Among candidate participants, only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney is expected to have the money to pull out all the stops in
Ames.
Romney has recently finished first in two polls in Iowa and has bet
heavily on a strong showing in Ames, although he remains in fourth
place among GOP prospects in most national polls.
The other seven candidates planning to attend the straw poll are
lesser known: Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback; Chicago businessman John Cox;
former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of
California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado; and former
Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore followed McCain and Giuliani in
deciding not to compete in Ames.
Their absence also means they will not be buying blocks of thousands
of the $30 tickets to hand out to their supporters. Critics have said
the straw poll is more of a pageant than a real gauge of support.
Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa,
minimized the effect of the decisions, although the party has scaled
back its attendance forecast.
The party has been trying to promote this year's event to the general
public, and has also lined up interest groups, such as the National
Rifle Association, which are also paying for space around Hilton.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, weighing a presidential bid,
also plans to attend, while television news networks including ABC,
CBS, Fox News Channel, CNN, NBC and MSNBC have committed to covering
the event, state party officials said.
"As far as the bottom line, no, it doesn't really affect it," said
Laudner.
Other GOP activists in Iowa say the damage could signal bad news for
the party, and perhaps the end of the straw poll's prominence.
"It's a signal for the Iowa Republican Party to say we can't hold
together our largest fundraiser," said former state GOP finance
chairwoman Diane Crookham Johnson of Oskaloosa. "I think Fred Thompson
is going to be a big signal. If he decides he doesn't need to be in
it, it's probably the end of it."
Iowa has had disproportionate access to the vast majority of
candidates for president as a result of its preciously guarded role
hosting the leadoff nominating caucuses. It also has become a training
ground for political campaign workers who have gone on to work at the
highest levels of politics and government.
