Let's Talk Turkey

Let's Talk Turkey

By Stephen Pizzo

Created Nov 14 2007 - 9:43am

With Thanksgiving so near I figured this would be a good time to talk turkey

about Turkey.

What's this all about?

Turk gunships strike inside Iraq

a.. Turkish helicopter gunships attack abandoned villages in Iraqi

territory

b.. First major action against Kurdish rebels since Turkish PM met U.S.

Pres. Bush

c.. Turkey threatens to launch major counter-terrorism incursion into

northern Iraq

d.. Nearly 50 people in Turkey killed by hit-and-run PKK raids since

September

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq (AP) -- Turkish helicopter gunships attacked villages

inside Iraq on Tuesday, Iraqi officials said, the first such air strike

since border tensions have escalated in recent months...It also was the

first major Turkish action against Kurdish rebels since Turkish Prime

Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met President Bush in Washington earlier this

month. (Full Story [1])

Add this mounting mess on the Turkish/Iraq border to the "Oh what a tangled

mess.." file. If you've been watching this mounting crisis you might have

asked yourself something like this:

"If the Kurds in Iraq are "on our side," and we are in virtual control of

things in Iraq, why don't US troops lay the law down with the Kurds as in ,

"Put your PKK dogs back on their leashes." And if they refuse, why don't US

troops just obliterate PKK camps and hideouts as we do when we find al Qaeda

hideouts? After all, Washington has already declared the PKK a terrorist

group."

Forget about it. Here's what's really going on.

US planners know that (surge successes aside,) the days for a unified Iraq

are numbered. Sooner or later -- likely sooner -- that pretend nation will

fracture along tribal lines just as the former Yugoslavia did. When that

happens the only friends the US is likely to have left in those parts would

be the newly independent Kurds [2] of the then former Iraq. Visions of

permanent military bases and CIA listening posts along the Iranian border

dance in the minds of Pentagon planners.

The only thing that could throw a monkey wrench into that vision is US

troops attacking PKK fighters to assuage neighboring Turkey. PKK rebels

enjoy deep support and admiration among rank and file Kurds and any active

US military action against them would almost certainly turn rank and file

Kurds against the US.

Even if Iraq does not break apart Pentagon planners now understand that a

long-term US presence in Iraq is unlikely to be allowed by the

Iranian-backed government in Baghdad. The only place left in Iraq where US

troops might still be welcomed five or ten years from now is the within the

semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

Which is why, when asked recently at a news conferencewhat US troops were

doing about PKK rebels the general in charge of that region responded

bluntly, "Nothing. Not a thing."

The administration's strategy towards this festering sore can best be

described as "benign neglect" -- tell the Turks what they want to hear, ask

the Kurds to restrain the PKK and then do nothing that might offend either

side. Because the administration's choices -- all the choices -- carry their

own risks. While the Kurds may be of future use to Pentagon planners,

cooperation right now from Turkey is critical US military operations through

out Iraq. If we piss off Turkey by openly supporting the Kurds, the Turks

could retaliate by denying the US military use of Turkey's giant Incirlik

Air Base [3]. If that happened US forces in Iraq would be up Shit Creek

....no paddle, no boat.

So, how has Bush benign neglect strategy worked so far?

Well Turkey has now massed over 100,000 combat troops along it's boarder

with Iraq/Kurdistan. PKK rebels have continued to make trouble by killing

and kidnapping Turkish soldiers. And now the Turks are beginning to strike

back, albeit in a restrained manner -- so far.

It's another Bush administration military crap shoot disguised as a

strategy. If they pull it off, meaning: the Turks never launch a full-scale

attack and the Kurdish baby-nation survives the split up of Iraq and become

a US-friendly ally in the region -- the neo-cons will point to the whole

thing as proof they were right all along. (Never mind that a balkanized Iraq

would be just the opposite of their originally stated goal.)

If, on the other hand, things go terribly wrong -- as they seem to do with

alarming predictability with this administration -- the world will truly

have a mess on its hands:

a.. The Turks get hit by the PKK [4] one time too many and the Turkish

army launches a massive ground incursion into northern Iraq [5],

b.. The large Kurdish minority in eastern Turkey sides with their brothers

and sisters in Iraq and an all out insurgency breaks out inside Turkey

itself,

c.. Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq have already pledged they will

defend their sovereignty by unleashing the fierce mountain fighters, the

Peshmarga [6], against the invading Turks,

d.. Turkey, a long-standing member of NATO and a nation on the verge of

acceptance into the EU will find itself embroiled in both an internal civil

war and an all-out war in northern Iraq,

e.. Not wanting to kill either Turks or Kurds, US troops will have no

choice but to simply get the hell out of the way,

f.. Meanwhile the Shiites now in charge in Baghdad would view the chaos

just north of them as an opportunity to recover the rich oil fields the

Kurds had laid claim to around Kirkuk [7],

g.. Then there's Iran. Like the Turks, Iran shares a troublesome border

with the Kurds of northern Iraq. And, like the Turks, the Iranians have

their own, often rebellious Kurds [8]. As supporters of the Shiite leaders

in Baghdad, the Iranians would see a Kurdish/Turkish conflict as nothing

short of a gift from Allah. Iranians would benefit in many ways. They could

further ingratiate themselves to their Shiite cousins in Iraq by launching

cross-border attacks thus squeezing the Kurds from two sides. While so

occupied fighting Turks to their west and Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops

on their eastern border, US-trained and equipped Iraqi troops would move up

from the south and reclaim their oil-rich northern territory. The Iranians

would also take this opportunity to teach the Kurds a lesson they hope they

will not soon forget.

If such a scenario plays out it would create an entirely new pecking order

in the region, one not at all to the liking of the US. Bush's unseating of

Saddam has already raised Iran's influence in the region. After a Turkish,

Iranian, Iraq joint war against the Kurds an entirely new set of alliances

would form. The Turks, Iranians and Shiite rulers in Baghdad would have

found common purpose in subjugating separatist Kurds by killing as many

Kurdish nationalists as possible -- on both sides of their joint borders --

hopefully driving a stake once and for all through the heart of Kurdish

nationalist ambitions.

But the biggest winner would be Iran, which would point to the outcome as

proof positive that Iran is key player in the region, not the US -- a fact

that will be all too obvious since the US would have not lifted a finger to

save the out number Kurds -- once again.

At that point we will have nothing left to do but look toward Washington and

shout out a hearty, "Heck of a job, Georgie."

_______

newsforreal.com

About author Stephen Pizzo is the author of numerous books, including

"Inside Job: The Looting of America's Savings and Loans," which was

nominated for a Pulitzer. His web site is News For Real [9].

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"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their

spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their

government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are

suffering deeply in spirit,

and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public

debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have

patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning

back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at

stake."

-Thomas Jefferson