D
Dr. Jai Maharaj
Guest
MODI'S MOMENT OF TRUTH
Forwarded message from Ashok Chowgule
Modi's moment of truth
Another article based more on hope than on fact, written
before the elections. And this person is considered to be
an expert psephologist.
Namaste
Ashok Chowgule
Modi's moment of truth
YOGENDRA YADAV
The Indian Express
December 10, 2007
Democracy is taking revenge on Narendra Modi. This election
may well be the long deferred moment of truth for the man
who invoked popular mandate to bypass norms, laws or the
Constitution. We cannot yet say that he will lose this
election. But a journey through Saurashtra is enough to
suggest that the BJP is losing ground in this crucial
region.
Exit polls would measure the extent of this loss, but at
this stage the indications are enough to think about what
was unspeakable some time ago: Modi can lose the election.
Democracy's revenge is of course not taking the expected
path. For one thing, Modi is not being punished for
presiding over the massacre of Muslims in 2002. Let alone
remorse, there is little memory of the massacre in popular
consciousness. We asked a college going boy about what
happened in 2002. He only knew about the train that was
burnt in Godhra and the terrorist attack on Akshardham. If
anything, the amnesia on 2002 is so complete that Modi's
gamble of raising Sohrabuddin is unlikely to help him in
this region that did not witness any violence at that time.
If there is one community that does not seem to exist in
this election, it is the Muslims. They are untouchable for
the BJP and forgotten by the Congress.
Nor is it a routine case of anti-incumbency, or more
appropriately a punishment for mis-governance. True, the
shine of Vibrant Gujarat wears thin once you step away from
the urban middle class colonies. Yes, the government has
suppressed information on farmers' suicides and the reality
of development is at some distance from Modispeak. Yet the
claims of the Gujarat government on development are not
altogether false. A Dalit Congress Sarpanch in a remote
village would concede that electricity, education and
health facilities have gotten better in the last five
years. This confirms the impression of popular approval of
the government in the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-
CSDS survey held last month.
This is not a popular rejection of Narendra Modi either.
Unlike Om Prakash Chautala before he was defeated, the
mention of Modi's name does not invite disgust. Ordinary
people speak of him with respect, even admiration. Not even
die-hard Congress supporters can name a Congress leader who
can match Modi. He is undoubtedly the most popular leader
in the state today as he responds to an average Gujarati's
wish for a strong and decisive leadership. But unlike 2002,
people do not start talking about Modi the moment you start
talking politics. This election is not about Modi.
Democracy's revenge is taking an unusual and perhaps unholy
form in this election. Modi's success depended upon
shutting down the routine and normal business of politics,
on not having to share power with anyone. He managed to
close down the routine patronage system, denying rewards
even to organisations of the Sangh parivar. He bypassed
party organisation and politicians by working through
bureaucrats and appealing directly to the people. MLAs and
even senior state level leaders of his party could not get
an appointment with him. He refused to pay any attention
not just to the opposition, but also to media and civil
society. He has been mindful of caste and local equations,
but planned the election in such a way that these messy
factors should not become overriding.
The last three assembly elections in the state, all of
which the BJP won comfortably, were extra-ordinary
elections around one over-riding emotive issue: Ayodhya
Mandir in 1995, Hajuria-Khajuria split in 1998 and the
post-Godhra massacre in 2002. This election was to be about
Gujarati asmita, about a state that has discovered its
identity and vibrancy, thanks to Modi. In short this
election was to be a plebiscite on Modi.
This is not how it has turned out. While Modi could tame
the opposition and shut up his critics, he could not shut
down democratic politics.
This election is about the resurfacing of normal politics.
The quotidian, the mundane, the local and the parochial
stuff of politics refused to die, thus forcing Modi to play
on a turning pitch that he is not comfortable with. He
cannot win this election in one, single, grand
masterstroke. He has to win it bit by bit, constituency by
constituency.
This may well prove the nemesis of Narendra Modi.
The resurgence of normal politics takes many forms.
Rebellion within the BJP is just one of those forms.
Frankly, the rebellion appears to have been over-rated by
the media. The rebels may have been important figures
within the BJP, but their spoiler value is limited. Even
Keshubhai Patel's influence is limited to a section of
Leuva Patels of Saurashtra. The Sangh Parivar's protest is
less visible but at least of as much consequence. The
ordinary RSS workers that we spoke to would like the BJP to
win, but would ideally want Modi to command a substantially
reduced majority so that he does not lose his head.
Another form is the rise of media, and not just the Delhi-
based English and secular media, as counter-establishment.
This has prevented Modi from setting the agenda of
elections. This election is not about the macro economic
achievements of Gujarat. Those achievement might impress
the middle class urban Gujarati but have very little value
outside this charmed circle. Ordinary people wish to see
what these have meant in their own lives. Speak to any poor
Gujarati in rural or urban areas about these achievements
and he will narrate to you the tale of his woes in
obtaining the basic necessities of life. Modi's well
cultivated aura of omniscience and omnipotence begins to
boomerang here: the voters hold him responsible for
everything, from price rise and lack of employment to
agrarian crisis, the state of BPL card and having to pay
electricity bills.
Finally, caste-community equations have resurfaced in a
much stronger way than before, defying all attempts to
subsume these under an overarching Hindu identity.
Travelling from constituency to constituency, we found
ourselves doing a fresh arithmetic of the kind we did only
in Bihar or Haryana. It is not just the dominant Rajputs
and Patels and the familiar Dalits and Muslims. The rising
political aspirations of caste groups like Ahirs and
various sub-groups of Kolis are making their presence felt.
It is not that the BJP has not done its caste arithmetic
carefully or that its choice of candidates is indifferent.
It is just that this is not BJP's game.
One doesn't know what this game's final outcome will be.
But we do know that for all its flaws, normal politics is
perhaps the best guarantee against the dark side of
democracy that Gujarat has witnessed.
The writer is Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of
Developing Societies
End of forwarded message from Ashok Chowgule
Jai Maharaj
http://tinyurl.com/24fq83
http://www.mantra.com/jai
http://www.mantra.com/jyotish
Om Shanti
Hindu Holocaust Museum
http://www.mantra.com/holocaust
Hindu life, principles, spirituality and philosophy
http://www.hindu.org
http://www.hindunet.org
The truth about Islam and Muslims
http://www.flex.com/~jai/satyamevajayate
o Not for commercial use. Solely to be fairly used for the educational
purposes of research and open discussion. The contents of this post may not
have been authored by, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the
poster. The contents are protected by copyright law and the exemption for
fair use of copyrighted works.
o If you send private e-mail to me, it will likely not be read,
considered or answered if it does not contain your full legal name, current
e-mail and postal addresses, and live-voice telephone number.
o Posted for information and discussion. Views expressed by others are
not necessarily those of the poster who may or may not have read the article.
FAIR USE NOTICE: This article may contain copyrighted material the use of
which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright
owner. This material is being made available in efforts to advance the
understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic,
democratic, scientific, social, and cultural, etc., issues. It is believed
that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title
17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without
profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included
information for research, comment, discussion and educational purposes by
subscribing to USENET newsgroups or visiting web sites. For more information
go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this article for purposes of
your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the
copyright owner.
Forwarded message from Ashok Chowgule
Modi's moment of truth
Another article based more on hope than on fact, written
before the elections. And this person is considered to be
an expert psephologist.
Namaste
Ashok Chowgule
Modi's moment of truth
YOGENDRA YADAV
The Indian Express
December 10, 2007
Democracy is taking revenge on Narendra Modi. This election
may well be the long deferred moment of truth for the man
who invoked popular mandate to bypass norms, laws or the
Constitution. We cannot yet say that he will lose this
election. But a journey through Saurashtra is enough to
suggest that the BJP is losing ground in this crucial
region.
Exit polls would measure the extent of this loss, but at
this stage the indications are enough to think about what
was unspeakable some time ago: Modi can lose the election.
Democracy's revenge is of course not taking the expected
path. For one thing, Modi is not being punished for
presiding over the massacre of Muslims in 2002. Let alone
remorse, there is little memory of the massacre in popular
consciousness. We asked a college going boy about what
happened in 2002. He only knew about the train that was
burnt in Godhra and the terrorist attack on Akshardham. If
anything, the amnesia on 2002 is so complete that Modi's
gamble of raising Sohrabuddin is unlikely to help him in
this region that did not witness any violence at that time.
If there is one community that does not seem to exist in
this election, it is the Muslims. They are untouchable for
the BJP and forgotten by the Congress.
Nor is it a routine case of anti-incumbency, or more
appropriately a punishment for mis-governance. True, the
shine of Vibrant Gujarat wears thin once you step away from
the urban middle class colonies. Yes, the government has
suppressed information on farmers' suicides and the reality
of development is at some distance from Modispeak. Yet the
claims of the Gujarat government on development are not
altogether false. A Dalit Congress Sarpanch in a remote
village would concede that electricity, education and
health facilities have gotten better in the last five
years. This confirms the impression of popular approval of
the government in the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-
CSDS survey held last month.
This is not a popular rejection of Narendra Modi either.
Unlike Om Prakash Chautala before he was defeated, the
mention of Modi's name does not invite disgust. Ordinary
people speak of him with respect, even admiration. Not even
die-hard Congress supporters can name a Congress leader who
can match Modi. He is undoubtedly the most popular leader
in the state today as he responds to an average Gujarati's
wish for a strong and decisive leadership. But unlike 2002,
people do not start talking about Modi the moment you start
talking politics. This election is not about Modi.
Democracy's revenge is taking an unusual and perhaps unholy
form in this election. Modi's success depended upon
shutting down the routine and normal business of politics,
on not having to share power with anyone. He managed to
close down the routine patronage system, denying rewards
even to organisations of the Sangh parivar. He bypassed
party organisation and politicians by working through
bureaucrats and appealing directly to the people. MLAs and
even senior state level leaders of his party could not get
an appointment with him. He refused to pay any attention
not just to the opposition, but also to media and civil
society. He has been mindful of caste and local equations,
but planned the election in such a way that these messy
factors should not become overriding.
The last three assembly elections in the state, all of
which the BJP won comfortably, were extra-ordinary
elections around one over-riding emotive issue: Ayodhya
Mandir in 1995, Hajuria-Khajuria split in 1998 and the
post-Godhra massacre in 2002. This election was to be about
Gujarati asmita, about a state that has discovered its
identity and vibrancy, thanks to Modi. In short this
election was to be a plebiscite on Modi.
This is not how it has turned out. While Modi could tame
the opposition and shut up his critics, he could not shut
down democratic politics.
This election is about the resurfacing of normal politics.
The quotidian, the mundane, the local and the parochial
stuff of politics refused to die, thus forcing Modi to play
on a turning pitch that he is not comfortable with. He
cannot win this election in one, single, grand
masterstroke. He has to win it bit by bit, constituency by
constituency.
This may well prove the nemesis of Narendra Modi.
The resurgence of normal politics takes many forms.
Rebellion within the BJP is just one of those forms.
Frankly, the rebellion appears to have been over-rated by
the media. The rebels may have been important figures
within the BJP, but their spoiler value is limited. Even
Keshubhai Patel's influence is limited to a section of
Leuva Patels of Saurashtra. The Sangh Parivar's protest is
less visible but at least of as much consequence. The
ordinary RSS workers that we spoke to would like the BJP to
win, but would ideally want Modi to command a substantially
reduced majority so that he does not lose his head.
Another form is the rise of media, and not just the Delhi-
based English and secular media, as counter-establishment.
This has prevented Modi from setting the agenda of
elections. This election is not about the macro economic
achievements of Gujarat. Those achievement might impress
the middle class urban Gujarati but have very little value
outside this charmed circle. Ordinary people wish to see
what these have meant in their own lives. Speak to any poor
Gujarati in rural or urban areas about these achievements
and he will narrate to you the tale of his woes in
obtaining the basic necessities of life. Modi's well
cultivated aura of omniscience and omnipotence begins to
boomerang here: the voters hold him responsible for
everything, from price rise and lack of employment to
agrarian crisis, the state of BPL card and having to pay
electricity bills.
Finally, caste-community equations have resurfaced in a
much stronger way than before, defying all attempts to
subsume these under an overarching Hindu identity.
Travelling from constituency to constituency, we found
ourselves doing a fresh arithmetic of the kind we did only
in Bihar or Haryana. It is not just the dominant Rajputs
and Patels and the familiar Dalits and Muslims. The rising
political aspirations of caste groups like Ahirs and
various sub-groups of Kolis are making their presence felt.
It is not that the BJP has not done its caste arithmetic
carefully or that its choice of candidates is indifferent.
It is just that this is not BJP's game.
One doesn't know what this game's final outcome will be.
But we do know that for all its flaws, normal politics is
perhaps the best guarantee against the dark side of
democracy that Gujarat has witnessed.
The writer is Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of
Developing Societies
End of forwarded message from Ashok Chowgule
Jai Maharaj
http://tinyurl.com/24fq83
http://www.mantra.com/jai
http://www.mantra.com/jyotish
Om Shanti
Hindu Holocaust Museum
http://www.mantra.com/holocaust
Hindu life, principles, spirituality and philosophy
http://www.hindu.org
http://www.hindunet.org
The truth about Islam and Muslims
http://www.flex.com/~jai/satyamevajayate
o Not for commercial use. Solely to be fairly used for the educational
purposes of research and open discussion. The contents of this post may not
have been authored by, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the
poster. The contents are protected by copyright law and the exemption for
fair use of copyrighted works.
o If you send private e-mail to me, it will likely not be read,
considered or answered if it does not contain your full legal name, current
e-mail and postal addresses, and live-voice telephone number.
o Posted for information and discussion. Views expressed by others are
not necessarily those of the poster who may or may not have read the article.
FAIR USE NOTICE: This article may contain copyrighted material the use of
which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright
owner. This material is being made available in efforts to advance the
understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic,
democratic, scientific, social, and cultural, etc., issues. It is believed
that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title
17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without
profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included
information for research, comment, discussion and educational purposes by
subscribing to USENET newsgroups or visiting web sites. For more information
go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this article for purposes of
your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the
copyright owner.