Obama's Support Softens in Poll, Suggesting a Peak Has Passed

WASHINGTON - Senator Barack Obama's support among Democrats nationally has

softened over the last month, particularly among men and upper-income

voters, as voters have taken a slightly less positive view of him than they

did after his burst of victories in February, according to the latest New

York Times/CBS News poll.

Mr. Obama, with the MSNBC host Chris Matthews this week in Pennsylvania, has

lately lost ground with men, a survey finds.

The survey suggests that Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, may have been at

something of a peak in February, propelled by a string of primary and caucus

victories over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and that

perceptions of him are settling down.

Mr. Obama's favorability rating among Democratic primary voters has dropped

seven percentage points, to 62 percent, since the last Times/CBS News

survey, in late February. While that figure is by any measure high, the

decline came in a month during which he endured withering attacks from Mrs.

Clinton and responded to reports that his former pastor had made politically

inflammatory statements from his church's pulpit in Chicago.

Still, the events of the last month do not appear to have fundamentally

altered the race for the party's nomination or provided what Mrs. Clinton's

campaign has been seeking: evidence of a collapse in Mr. Obama's standing or

an overwhelming preference voiced for Mrs. Clinton by Democratic voters in

polls, developments that could be used to persuade uncommitted

superdelegates to sign on with her.

The poll showed that Mr. Obama now leads Senator John McCain of Arizona, the

presumptive Republican presidential nominee, 47 percent to 42 percent; his

lead was 50 percent to 38 percent in late February, when Mr. McCain still

faced primary opposition from Mike Huckabee. The latest poll shows Mrs.

Clinton leading Mr. McCain, 48 percent to 43 percent, in a similar match-up.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are now effectively tied among Democratic voters,

with 46 percent saying they want the party to nominate Mr. Obama, compared

with 43 percent for Mrs. Clinton. In late February, 54 percent of Democrats

said they wanted Mr. Obama to win the nomination, compared with 38 percent

for Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Obama's lead among men has disappeared during that period. In February,

67 percent of men wanted the party to nominate him compared with 28 percent

for Mrs. Clinton. Now 47 percent back him, compared with 42 percent for her,

a difference within the poll's margin of error. Similarly, his lead has

shrunk among whites, voters making more than $50,000 annually and voters

under age 45.

The poll, taken March 28 through April 2, contains some encouraging news for

Mr. Obama as he and Mrs. Clinton slog through what has become an extended

fight for their party's nomination. Over half of those sampled continued to

view him as having a better chance of defeating Mr. McCain. Most expect him

to win the nomination. And Mr. Obama's supporters are more enthusiastic

about his candidacy than are Democrats backing Mrs. Clinton.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,196 registered voters,

including 510 Democratic primary voters and 323 Republican primary voters.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for

all voters, four percentage points for Democratic primary voters and five

percentage points for Republican primary voters. The margin is slightly

higher for subsets within the sample, like white men.

The poll indicated that Mr. McCain was enjoying some success during this

season of Democratic unrest in trying to build his standing within his own

party. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Republican primary

voters, compared with 57 percent in February. Yet the poll suggested he

might face obstacles in the fall running against either Mrs. Clinton or Mr.

Obama.

When all registered voters were asked if the policies of a McCain

administration would favor the rich, the middle class or the poor, or treat

all groups the same, 53 percent said Mr. McCain would favor the rich while

16 percent said he would favor the middle class. Twenty-three percent said

he would treat all groups the same. (The number of people who said a McCain

administration would favor the poor was so small as to not register on the

poll.)

By contrast, 23 percent said Mrs. Clinton's policies would favor the rich.

And 13 percent said that about Mr. Obama.

Of those respondents who said they had heard about the controversy involving

Mr. Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., 36 percent of the

general electorate said it made them look less favorably on Mr. Obama.

Sixty-two percent said it made no difference. And 77 percent of Democrats

said the episode had not affected their view of Mr. Obama.

Twenty-six percent of the general electorate voters who heard of the speech

that Mr. Obama gave to try to deal with the controversy said it made them

feel more favorable about him. And 74 percent of Democrats said Mr. Obama

would be the kind of candidate who would unite the nation; 60 percent said

the same of Mrs. Clinton.

Adam Nagourney reported from Washington, and Megan Thee from New York.