Pakistan Opposition Heads Toward Victory

http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/pakistan_election/2008/02/18/73650.html

Pakistan Opposition Heads Toward Victory

Monday, February 18, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan opposition parties took commanding leads in

unofficial returns early Tuesday in Parliamentary elections, heading toward

a victory that could challenge President Pervez Musharraf's rule eight years

after seizing power in a military coup.

Monday's balloting was aimed at bolstering democracy and ending a year-long

political crisis, but fear and apathy kept millions of voters at home.

The government confirmed 24 election-related deaths over the past 36 hours.

But the country was spared the type of Islamic militant violence that

scarred the campaign _ most notably the assassination of the charismatic

opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto.

State-run television early Tuesday gave the two main opposition parties

strong leads in early unofficial tallies, a trend conceded by the

president's Pakistan Muslim League-Q party. Final official results were not

expected before Wednesday.

"As far as we are concerned, we will be willing to sit on opposition benches

if final results prove that we have lost. This is the trend," party

spokesman Tariq Azeem said.

Tuesday morning, state-run Pakistan TV said unofficial tallies were complete

for 115 of the 268 parliament seats being contested. It gave former prime

minister Nawaz Sharif's opposition Pakistan Muslim League-N and Bhutto's

party nearly 70 percent of the vote. The pro-Musharraf PML-Q was third.

If the vote pattern continues, it will ease concerns that lack of a clear

winner could result in a government too fragmented to rally the nation

against Islamic extremists.

Musharraf was not on the ballot, but the election was widely seen as a

referendum on his eight-year rule _ including his alliance with the United

States in the war against terrorist groups that many Pakistanis oppose.

Two of Musharraf's close political allies _ the chairman of the ruling party

and the outgoing railways minister _ both lost seats in Punjab, the most

populous province and a key electoral battleground.

Though balloting proceeded without major attacks, Bhutto's party claimed

that 15 of its members had been killed and hundreds injured in scattered

violence "deliberately engineered to deter voters." Officials confirmed 24

deaths in election-related violence over the previous 24 hours, mostly in

the country's biggest province of Punjab, the key electoral battleground.

Musharraf's approval ratings have plummeted since his declaration of

emergency rule in November and his purge of the judiciary to safeguard his

re-election by the previous parliament a few weeks earlier.

Going into the election, two public opinion surveys predicted Bhutto's

Pakistan People's Party would finish first, followed by Sharif's party. The

pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q was in third.

An overwhelming victory by the opposition could leave Musharraf politically

weakened at a time when the United States is pressing him to take more

robust action against al-Qaida and Taliban fighters based in Pakistan's

restive northwestern region along the Afghan border.

With his political future in the balance, Musharraf pledged to work with the

new government regardless of which party wins.

"I will give them full cooperation as president, whatever is my role,"

Musharraf said after casting his ballot in Rawalpindi. "Confrontationist

policies ... should end and we should come into conciliatory politics in the

interest of Pakistan. The situation demands this."

In the north, prominent pro-Taliban cleric Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman was

trailing far behind his rival from Bhutto's party with more than half the

precincts in their district reporting.

"I'm very happy, but we have to struggle," said Sadiq ul-Farooq, a senior

official in Sharif's party. "We face serious problems _ the economy, law and

order and then the problem of terrorism, which is 70 percent because of

President Musharraf. He has to go."

The U.S. government, Musharraf's strongest international backer, was anxious

for a credible election to shore up democratic forces at a time of mounting

concern over political unrest in this nuclear-armed nation and a growing

al-Qaida and Taliban presence in the northwest.

"Every single vote must be counted fairly, and the numbers must be

transmitted so decisions can be made," said Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, a Texas

Democrat who was one of several American lawmakers monitoring the election.

Lee said that an "effective government for the people of Pakistan" was

America's "great concern."

Despite the stakes, it appeared most of the country's 81 million voters

stayed home _ either out of fear of extremist attacks or lack of enthusiasm

for the candidates, many of whom waged lackluster campaigns.

Sarwar Bari of the nonprofit Free and Fair Elections Network said reports

from his group's 20,000 election observers indicated voter turnout was about

35 percent. That would be the same as in the 1997 election _ the lowest in

Pakistan's history.

Ayaz Baig, the election commissioner in Pakistan's most populous province,

Punjab, estimated turnout there at 30 percent to 40 percent _ slightly lower

than in the 2002 election. In Baluchistan and Sindh provinces, turnout was

estimated at about 35 percent, officials said.

In Lahore, 2,740 voters were registered at two polling stations in a primary

school in an upper middle class district. Less than two hours before the

polls closed, only 760 people _ or 28 percent _ had cast ballots.

Bhutto's party had hoped to ride a public wave of sympathy after the former

prime minister was killed in a gun and suicide bomb attack Dec. 27 in

Rawalpindi. Her death and the nationwide riots that followed prompted

authorities to postpone the balloting for six weeks.

But Bhutto's assassination forced candidates to curtail public rallies due

to security concerns, and the death of the country's most charismatic figure

appeared to drain much of the excitement from the campaign.

"I was already disillusioned with politics and it only deepened after the

death of Ms. Bhutto," said housewife Rifat Ashraf, who was relaxing at a

park in the eastern city of Lahore. "There are three voters in our family,

and they are all here having a picnic."

With turnout so low, it was unclear whether the ruling party machinery was

more successful in getting its supporters to the polls, especially in

Punjab, its political base.

Opposition officials warned the government against trying to manipulate the

results during the laborious count, saying there could be street protests if

the count was rigged.

"People came out today and they voted for us. But we are hearing that their

votes will be stolen after darkness, and we will not tolerate it,"

opposition politician Shahbaz Sharif said on Geo television. "Those who want

to rob our votes should listen that we will not allow them to do it."

Opposition parties and analysts said local authorities used state resources

to back ruling party candidates _ charges that were denied by the

government, which promised a free and fair vote.

Police arrested an election official after 600 ballot papers went missing

from a polling station in the southern city of Shikarpur, police official

Ali Mohammed Shahni said.

While fears of attack deterred some voters, sympathy for Bhutto and

disaffection over rising food prices compelled others to take the risk and

go to the polls.

"My vote is for the PPP," said Munir Ahmed Tariq, a retired police officer

in Nawab Shah. "If there is rigging this time, there will be a severe

reaction. This is a sentiment of this nation."

In the remote border region of Bajur, a possible hiding place of Osama bin

Laden and his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, hundreds of Pashtun tribesmen

turned out at a polling place inside a government college, and dismissed the

threat of attack.

"We are not afraid of the situation. Death comes only once," said farmer

Amanat Shah.

A nearby, segregated polling station for women, was empty _ a reflection of

conservative attitudes in Pakistan's tribal belt.