Pakistan : Ruling Party Concedes Defeat - But What Now ?

February 19, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan's ruling party conceded defeat

Tuesday as early poll results indicated that the country's opposition

looked set to deal a crushing blow to President Pervez Musharraf.

"We concede and congratulate the people who have won the elections,"

Mushahid Syed Hussain, general secretary of the Pakistan Muslim

League-Q, told CNN.

"People have voted for the victory of the ballot box," he said. "We

will look forward to strengthening the democratic process by remaining

in opposition."

Thousands of ecstatic Pakistanis took to the streets as the results

trickled in. They waved placards and broke into impromptu songs.

"All the King's Men, Gone!" blared the headline in the

English-language The Daily Times. "Heavyweights knocked out,"

proclaimed the newspaper, Dawn.

National voter turnout for the parliamentary race exceeded

expectations with 45.69 percent of the 81 million eligible voters

casting ballots, the election commission told CNN.

"I think it's a very dramatic statement about what happens when people

can vote," U.S. Sen. John Kerry told CNN from Islamabad.

He added that the people of Pakistan "spoke up for change, they spoke

up for a different course. I think now Pakistan is looking at a

dramatic moment of opportunity."

The voting in the country's first general elections in six years ended

with no overt signs of tampering and relatively little violence.

Twenty-three people were killed across the nation in election-related

violence, according to a tally by CNN from provincial reports. Of

them, 12 were reported in Punjab, the most populous province and a key

electoral battleground.

Final results are not expected before Tuesday evening. But early

numbers released by the election commission showed big wins for the

opposition parties of two former prime ministers -- one slain and one

deposed.

- - - - -

Two possibilities ... either the new president & majority

leaders get assassinated by 'terrorists' (Mushariff will

be VERY suprised, of course) or the USA has made arrangements

for Mushariffs retirement (with an option to return if

needed).

The current government ruled with an iron fist. This wasn't

entirely inappropriate for a troubled and fragmented country

like Pakistan. It has always been an uneasy coalition of

tribal groups (P.A.K. & I. mostly) and the emergence of

militant rad Islam near the Afghani border over the past

decade hasn't helped things.

So, short/medium-term, what happens with a NEW government

that only has a tin fist ? Will it calm things down with

the rad Islamists - or will the Islamists see this as

their best opportunity to totally disrupt the system and

seize power ?

From a cynical perspective, the USA might actually WANT

the radicals to make inroads and prove the new government

is weak and incapable of safeguarding Pakistans nuclear

weapons or dealing with terrorism. That would give us

an excuse to effectively take over Pakistan ... and a

free hand to send B-52s into the radical 'tribal areas'.

(Oh yea ... there's oil and gas and pipelines and minerals

in Pakistan too - always of interest ...)

We could arrange for Mushy to re-take the reigns of power,

to 'save Pakistan', and hold that power with American

arms at his side forever and ever.

In any event, I don't see anything GOOD coming from this

election. It's less a 'new era' and more an opportunity

for several competing interests to find out which one