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http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/19/political-oddsmakers-weigh-in-on-republican-vp-derby/
Political Oddsmakers Weigh in on Republican VP Derby
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Who says the Republican race is over?
While John McCain has long since wrapped up the GOP nomination and one-time
arch-rival Mitt Romney has gone from foe to friend, there's still some drama
to be had on the GOP side of the fence.
McCain's next big move is choosing his running mate, and political
odds-makers are having a field day weighing the chances of the nearly 20
candidates in the running.
"This would be his first major decision as the nominee, so it's an
opportunity for him to signal how he would govern," said political analyst
Ron Faucheux, who has built a reputation on ranking the odds for campaigns.
Faucheux sees Romney, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge,
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as
having the best odds of winning McCain's affection.
Click here to read more about the McCain campaign's strategy:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/0...-states-outside-fundraising-to-gain-the-edge/
But other rankings are all over the board, and Faucheux acknowledges the
selection isn't as simple as just determining who looks best on paper or
whom McCain likes most.
"If he could pick anybody he'd want, Joe Lieberman would probably be his
first choice, but I would have a serious question as to whether he could get
Lieberman through a Republican convention," he said.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen sees some of Faucheux's picks as too damaging or
polarizing for McCain.
"The three names that McCain should absolutely not pick are (Mike) Huckabee,
Romney and Condoleezza Rice," he said.
His Rasmussen Markets invites political enthusiasts to play the "market" by
using toy money to invest in the odds of McCain's VP possibilities.
The Markets have Romney and Pawlenty doing the best, but Rice trailing.
Ridge isn't even on the list.
But betting junkies across the country are weighing in on the race for GOP
VP. Here's a sampling, which FOXNews.com will be updating regularly, of the
political odds some groups and speculators are giving those running mate
hopefuls.
From Ron Faucheux
5:1 odds
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
15:1 odds
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist
South Dakota Sen. John Thune
Former White House budget director Rob Portman
40:1 odds
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson
South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford
Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox
From Rasmussen Markets (value reflects percentage chance)
Romney: 16.9%
Pawlenty: 16%
Rice: 7.9%
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison: 5.9%
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Huckabee: 5%
Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele: 1.7%
Sen. Lindsey Graham: 1.3%
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: .8%
Rep. Ron Paul: .6%
Rep. Duncan Hunter: .6%
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson: .5%
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: .4%
Intrade Prediction Markets (value reflects percentage chance)
Romney: 16.3%
Pawlenty: 15.6%
Rice: 8%
Huckabee: 7%
Hutchison: 5.9%
Giuliani: 5%
Steele: 1.5%
Gingrich: .8%
Graham: .7%
Thompson: .4%
Bush: .1%
Paul: .1%
Hunter: .1%
Political Oddsmakers Weigh in on Republican VP Derby
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Who says the Republican race is over?
While John McCain has long since wrapped up the GOP nomination and one-time
arch-rival Mitt Romney has gone from foe to friend, there's still some drama
to be had on the GOP side of the fence.
McCain's next big move is choosing his running mate, and political
odds-makers are having a field day weighing the chances of the nearly 20
candidates in the running.
"This would be his first major decision as the nominee, so it's an
opportunity for him to signal how he would govern," said political analyst
Ron Faucheux, who has built a reputation on ranking the odds for campaigns.
Faucheux sees Romney, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge,
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as
having the best odds of winning McCain's affection.
Click here to read more about the McCain campaign's strategy:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/0...-states-outside-fundraising-to-gain-the-edge/
But other rankings are all over the board, and Faucheux acknowledges the
selection isn't as simple as just determining who looks best on paper or
whom McCain likes most.
"If he could pick anybody he'd want, Joe Lieberman would probably be his
first choice, but I would have a serious question as to whether he could get
Lieberman through a Republican convention," he said.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen sees some of Faucheux's picks as too damaging or
polarizing for McCain.
"The three names that McCain should absolutely not pick are (Mike) Huckabee,
Romney and Condoleezza Rice," he said.
His Rasmussen Markets invites political enthusiasts to play the "market" by
using toy money to invest in the odds of McCain's VP possibilities.
The Markets have Romney and Pawlenty doing the best, but Rice trailing.
Ridge isn't even on the list.
But betting junkies across the country are weighing in on the race for GOP
VP. Here's a sampling, which FOXNews.com will be updating regularly, of the
political odds some groups and speculators are giving those running mate
hopefuls.
From Ron Faucheux
5:1 odds
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
15:1 odds
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist
South Dakota Sen. John Thune
Former White House budget director Rob Portman
40:1 odds
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson
South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford
Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox
From Rasmussen Markets (value reflects percentage chance)
Romney: 16.9%
Pawlenty: 16%
Rice: 7.9%
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison: 5.9%
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Huckabee: 5%
Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele: 1.7%
Sen. Lindsey Graham: 1.3%
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: .8%
Rep. Ron Paul: .6%
Rep. Duncan Hunter: .6%
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson: .5%
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: .4%
Intrade Prediction Markets (value reflects percentage chance)
Romney: 16.3%
Pawlenty: 15.6%
Rice: 8%
Huckabee: 7%
Hutchison: 5.9%
Giuliani: 5%
Steele: 1.5%
Gingrich: .8%
Graham: .7%
Thompson: .4%
Bush: .1%
Paul: .1%
Hunter: .1%