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December 30, 2007
2007 Deadliest for US Troops in Iraq
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:05 p.m. ET
BAGHDAD (AP) -- The second half of 2007 saw violence drop dramatically in
Iraq, but the progress came at a high price: The year was the deadliest for
the U.S. military since the 2003 invasion, with 899 troops killed.
American commanders and diplomats, however, say the battlefield gains
against insurgents such as al-Qaida in Iraq offer only a partial picture of
where the country stands as the war moves toward its five-year mark in
March.
Two critical shifts that boosted U.S.-led forces in 2007 -- a self-imposed
cease-fire by a main Shiite militia and a grassroots Sunni revolt against
extremists -- could still unravel unless serious unity efforts are made by
the Iraqi government.
Iran also remains a major wild card. U.S. officials believe the neighboring
country has helped quiet Iraq by reducing its flow of suspected aid to
Shiite fighters, including materials needed for deadly roadside bombs.
But Iran's apparent hands-off policies could come under strain as Shiite
factions -- some favoring Iran, others not -- battle for control of Iraq's
oil-rich south.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, will increasingly look to the uneven Iraqi security
forces to carry the load in 2008 as demands for an American exit strategy
grow sharper during the U.S. election year.
Britain, the main U.S. coalition partner in Iraq, is gradually drawing down
its forces and other allies, including Poland and Australia, are
contemplating full-scale withdrawals in the coming year.
''We're focusing our energy on building on what coalition and Iraqi troopers
have accomplished in 2007,'' Gen. David Petraeus told a group of Western
journalists on Saturday. ''Success will not, however, be akin to flipping on
a light switch. It will emerge slowly and fitfully, with reverses as well as
advances, accumulating fewer bad days and gradually more good days.''
That arc of progress played out in the raw statistics of U.S. and Iraqi
casualties.
American military deaths peaked in May with 126 troops killed. It was then
that the U.S. began ramping up its attacks against insurgent strongholds,
leading to increased clashes in Baghdad and other key areas across central
Iraq.
Seven months on, commanders and analysts say America's aggressive strategy
of targeting al-Qaida in Iraq strongholds is paying off: U.S. casualties
have dropped sharply. As of Sunday night in Baghdad, 21 deaths were reported
in December, one more than in February 2004, which was the lowest monthly
total of the war.
The 899 deaths in 2007 surpassed the previously highest death toll in 2004,
when 850 U.S. soldiers were killed. The total for 2007 could rise slightly;
occasionally the military reports new casualties a few days after they
occur. The military reported the non-combat related death of a soldier on
Sunday.
At least 3,902 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of
the war. Of those, at least 3,175 died as a result of hostile action,
according to the military's numbers.
Iraqi civilian deaths have tracked that decline and overall violence across
the country is down roughly 60 percent, American commanders say.
Since the influx of some 30,000 U.S. troops that began in June, the
lessening violence has meant that new problems have emerged.
''There certainly are ample challenges out there in the new year. In some
respects, the positive developments in the latter half of 2007 also
represent the challenges of 2008,'' U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker said during
a recent briefing.
An example, Crocker said, is how the improving security situation is in part
luring back Iraqis who took refugee in neighboring Syria, Jordan and
elsewhere.
''The return of refugees -- a good thing obviously, but a process is going
to have to be carefully managed so that it doesn't sow the seeds of new
tension and instability,'' he said.
Along with the increase in American troops, Iraq's lessening violence has
been attributed to a self-imposed freeze on activities by the Mahdi Army --
the militia of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Another important change was the quick growth of mostly Sunni anti-al-Qaida
in Iraq groups, or ''awakening councils,'' who once fought against U.S. and
Iraqi forces but now point their guns toward the insurgents.
Of the more than 70,000 fighters in the awakening councils, only 20 percent
are expected to be absorbed into the Iraqi security forces. The rest are to
receive job training through a joint $300 million program Iraqi and American
officials are creating.
That program is in its beginning stages and there are few details about how
it will be carried out, but analysts say it must succeed or the Sunni
fighters who do not join Iraq's military may sell their services to the
insurgents.
On Saturday, a new audiotape by Osama bin Laden warned Iraqi Sunnis against
fighting al-Qaida, saying ''the most evil of the traitors are those who
trade away their religion for the sake of their mortal life.''
Keeping the militia of al-Sadr and other powerful Shiite leaders on the
sidelines also means keeping Iran to its promise to halt the flow of weapons
and training to them, officials say.
''How lasting a phenomenon that will be and how Iran will define and play
its role in Iraq in 2008 I think is going to be very important to the
long-term future of the country,'' Crocker said.
Iraqi civilian deaths also peaked in May with 2,155 killed. That fell to 718
in November and 710 in December. For the year, 18,610 Iraqis were killed. In
2006, the only other full year an AP count has been tallied, 13,813
civilians were killed.
Civilian deaths are compiled by the AP from hospital, police and military
officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent
deaths were not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher
civilian death tolls.
Those numbers paint an increasingly optimistic picture, but James Carafano,
a security expert with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington,
D.C., warned dangers lurk.
''The number of people who have the power to turns things around appears to
be dwindling,'' he said regarding extremists. ''But there are still people
in Iraq that could string together a week of really bad days.''
While that might not mean a return to the bloodiest moments of the Iraq war,
Carafano said it could seriously rattle the Iraqi government as it tries to
bring about some form of political reconciliation in 2008, a key to
long-term security.
''People have to be really careful about over-promising that this is an
irreversible trend -- I think it is a soft trend,'' he said of the declining
violence.
Carafano pointed to the problem of integrating the Sunni awakening councils
into Iraqi society and keeping the Shiite militias out of the fight. If
either of those situations changes, he said, increased bloodshed in the
country is likely.
Those warnings in mind, Carafano said he thought the ''surge'' in U.S.
troops had to a large extent met one of its important goals: to allow the
Iraqi government to focus on questions of governance instead of dealing only
with security.
He likened the increase in troops to the Marshall Plan that largely rebuilt
Europe after World War II and demonstrated U.S. commitment to that
continent.
''I think the surge made that statement to Iraqis,'' Carafano said. ''Here's
America, fighting an unpopular war and things aren't going so well and we
turn around and send more troops in. To the good guys and the bad guys is
was a reaffirmation that Americans aren't going to walk away from this.''
2007 Deadliest for US Troops in Iraq
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:05 p.m. ET
BAGHDAD (AP) -- The second half of 2007 saw violence drop dramatically in
Iraq, but the progress came at a high price: The year was the deadliest for
the U.S. military since the 2003 invasion, with 899 troops killed.
American commanders and diplomats, however, say the battlefield gains
against insurgents such as al-Qaida in Iraq offer only a partial picture of
where the country stands as the war moves toward its five-year mark in
March.
Two critical shifts that boosted U.S.-led forces in 2007 -- a self-imposed
cease-fire by a main Shiite militia and a grassroots Sunni revolt against
extremists -- could still unravel unless serious unity efforts are made by
the Iraqi government.
Iran also remains a major wild card. U.S. officials believe the neighboring
country has helped quiet Iraq by reducing its flow of suspected aid to
Shiite fighters, including materials needed for deadly roadside bombs.
But Iran's apparent hands-off policies could come under strain as Shiite
factions -- some favoring Iran, others not -- battle for control of Iraq's
oil-rich south.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, will increasingly look to the uneven Iraqi security
forces to carry the load in 2008 as demands for an American exit strategy
grow sharper during the U.S. election year.
Britain, the main U.S. coalition partner in Iraq, is gradually drawing down
its forces and other allies, including Poland and Australia, are
contemplating full-scale withdrawals in the coming year.
''We're focusing our energy on building on what coalition and Iraqi troopers
have accomplished in 2007,'' Gen. David Petraeus told a group of Western
journalists on Saturday. ''Success will not, however, be akin to flipping on
a light switch. It will emerge slowly and fitfully, with reverses as well as
advances, accumulating fewer bad days and gradually more good days.''
That arc of progress played out in the raw statistics of U.S. and Iraqi
casualties.
American military deaths peaked in May with 126 troops killed. It was then
that the U.S. began ramping up its attacks against insurgent strongholds,
leading to increased clashes in Baghdad and other key areas across central
Iraq.
Seven months on, commanders and analysts say America's aggressive strategy
of targeting al-Qaida in Iraq strongholds is paying off: U.S. casualties
have dropped sharply. As of Sunday night in Baghdad, 21 deaths were reported
in December, one more than in February 2004, which was the lowest monthly
total of the war.
The 899 deaths in 2007 surpassed the previously highest death toll in 2004,
when 850 U.S. soldiers were killed. The total for 2007 could rise slightly;
occasionally the military reports new casualties a few days after they
occur. The military reported the non-combat related death of a soldier on
Sunday.
At least 3,902 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of
the war. Of those, at least 3,175 died as a result of hostile action,
according to the military's numbers.
Iraqi civilian deaths have tracked that decline and overall violence across
the country is down roughly 60 percent, American commanders say.
Since the influx of some 30,000 U.S. troops that began in June, the
lessening violence has meant that new problems have emerged.
''There certainly are ample challenges out there in the new year. In some
respects, the positive developments in the latter half of 2007 also
represent the challenges of 2008,'' U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker said during
a recent briefing.
An example, Crocker said, is how the improving security situation is in part
luring back Iraqis who took refugee in neighboring Syria, Jordan and
elsewhere.
''The return of refugees -- a good thing obviously, but a process is going
to have to be carefully managed so that it doesn't sow the seeds of new
tension and instability,'' he said.
Along with the increase in American troops, Iraq's lessening violence has
been attributed to a self-imposed freeze on activities by the Mahdi Army --
the militia of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
Another important change was the quick growth of mostly Sunni anti-al-Qaida
in Iraq groups, or ''awakening councils,'' who once fought against U.S. and
Iraqi forces but now point their guns toward the insurgents.
Of the more than 70,000 fighters in the awakening councils, only 20 percent
are expected to be absorbed into the Iraqi security forces. The rest are to
receive job training through a joint $300 million program Iraqi and American
officials are creating.
That program is in its beginning stages and there are few details about how
it will be carried out, but analysts say it must succeed or the Sunni
fighters who do not join Iraq's military may sell their services to the
insurgents.
On Saturday, a new audiotape by Osama bin Laden warned Iraqi Sunnis against
fighting al-Qaida, saying ''the most evil of the traitors are those who
trade away their religion for the sake of their mortal life.''
Keeping the militia of al-Sadr and other powerful Shiite leaders on the
sidelines also means keeping Iran to its promise to halt the flow of weapons
and training to them, officials say.
''How lasting a phenomenon that will be and how Iran will define and play
its role in Iraq in 2008 I think is going to be very important to the
long-term future of the country,'' Crocker said.
Iraqi civilian deaths also peaked in May with 2,155 killed. That fell to 718
in November and 710 in December. For the year, 18,610 Iraqis were killed. In
2006, the only other full year an AP count has been tallied, 13,813
civilians were killed.
Civilian deaths are compiled by the AP from hospital, police and military
officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent
deaths were not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher
civilian death tolls.
Those numbers paint an increasingly optimistic picture, but James Carafano,
a security expert with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington,
D.C., warned dangers lurk.
''The number of people who have the power to turns things around appears to
be dwindling,'' he said regarding extremists. ''But there are still people
in Iraq that could string together a week of really bad days.''
While that might not mean a return to the bloodiest moments of the Iraq war,
Carafano said it could seriously rattle the Iraqi government as it tries to
bring about some form of political reconciliation in 2008, a key to
long-term security.
''People have to be really careful about over-promising that this is an
irreversible trend -- I think it is a soft trend,'' he said of the declining
violence.
Carafano pointed to the problem of integrating the Sunni awakening councils
into Iraqi society and keeping the Shiite militias out of the fight. If
either of those situations changes, he said, increased bloodshed in the
country is likely.
Those warnings in mind, Carafano said he thought the ''surge'' in U.S.
troops had to a large extent met one of its important goals: to allow the
Iraqi government to focus on questions of governance instead of dealing only
with security.
He likened the increase in troops to the Marshall Plan that largely rebuilt
Europe after World War II and demonstrated U.S. commitment to that
continent.
''I think the surge made that statement to Iraqis,'' Carafano said. ''Here's
America, fighting an unpopular war and things aren't going so well and we
turn around and send more troops in. To the good guys and the bad guys is
was a reaffirmation that Americans aren't going to walk away from this.''
