Republicans to Kick Dem Ass and Win Back House Seats Lost in 2006

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,314843,00.html

Republicans See Chance to Win Back House Seats Lost in 2006

Monday, December 03, 2007

WASHINGTON - Democrats running the House of Representatives had their

chance to lead and squandered it, say Republicans determined to put a bright

face on seemingly dim hopes for a return to a GOP majority in 2008.

But while some Republicans want to call the '08 election forecast "a mixed

bag," others said the GOP's disadvantages are high. Not only is public

opinion still cool towards Republicans, but the terrain favors Democrats

too. So far, 17 House Republicans have announced their retirements at the

end of this term compared to five Democrats who are stepping down or running

for higher office next year.

"There really isn't much of an advantage for Republicans there," said Steve

Farnsworth, assistant professor of political science at Mary Washington

University in Virginia.

Republican supporters looking for a comeback said a number of districts lost

in the 2006 midterm election can be retaken with the right focus and

resources. Many of the Democrats targeted are key freshmen who Republicans

said won their seats in a "perfect storm" of conditions that won't hold the

same relevance in the next election.

Among the Democratic lawmakers in GOP sights are:

- Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Texas, who lost his seat in 2005 after a

Republican-engineered redistricting in Texas but won it back last year when

the chief conductor of that redistricting, then-GOP Majority Leader Tom

DeLay, announced he would not be running again for office amid political

scandal;

- Rep. Tim Mahoney, D-Fla., who won his seat last year after GOP Rep.Mark

Foley resigned following reports of inappropriate e-mails sent to underage

House pages during Foley's tenure on Capitol Hill. Foley's departure was too

late to get the Republican candidate's name on the ballot and Mahoney sailed

through the election, winning in a district that is heavily Republican and

went for President Bush by 52 percent in 2004;

- Rep. Chris Carney, D-Pa., another Democratic winner in a

Republican-leaning district amid scandal. A lieutenant commander in the

Naval Reserve, Carney won his seat after long-time incumbent Don Sherwood's

popularity plummeted following news he not only had an extramarital affair

but had been accused of beating the woman.

- Rep. Gerald McNerney, D-Calif., who managed to wrestle this heavily GOP

district in suburban northern California from incumbent GOP Rep. Richard

Pombo, who many believed was punished by the voters for his ties to

disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Republicans are fully aware of the need for change across the country and

are telling candidates in key districts to bash Washington if necessary,

said one party insider.

"We're encouraging our candidates not only to run against Washington but

also against us (Republicans)," the GOPer admitted.

Republicans are also heavily recruiting millionaires in an effort to make up

for the huge fundraising gap with Democrats, according to reports. "We have

to get creative," said the party operative.

One indicator of the challenges ahead is current fundraising numbers. The

National Republican Campaign Committee has $2.5 million on hand compared to

$29 million at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The Republican National Committee has more money than the Democratic

National Committee, however. And despite his low approval ratings, President

Bush continues to be a big fundraising draw for Republican candidates.

Though most of his events are closed to the public, and he is making fewer

appearances with candidates, reports indicate that the president has helped

to raise $63.5 million for the GOP this year compared with $62.4 million at

the same point in 2005.

Meanwhile, Democrats said they have 29 "front line" incumbents they are

defending vigorously and have been recruiting for possible takeovers in

places like Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and

Florida. They insist their recruiting has been going smoothly and

fundraising is a serious business.

"When I think our Republican colleagues thought we would be playing defense

going into these next elections, in fact, we've been very much on offense.

We're not just consolidating our gains. We've put more than 40 Republican

seats in play," DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen told "FOX News Sunday."

Republican sources on Capitol Hill know they are at a disadvantage when it

comes to fundraising. But they plan to capitalize on a growing perception -

at least in opinion polls - that Democrats aren't living up to their

promises of 2006 to gain a toehold next November.

For example, Republicans emphasize Democrats' failure to pass key spending

bills and override recent presidential vetoes on the Children's Health

Insurance Program reauthorization and the Labor, Health, Human Services and

Education appropriations bill, which Bush and congressional Republicans

opposed on grounds they expand government spending and contained too many

earmarks.

"They have proposed big taxes, big spending, have failed to support our

troops in the war, are undermining our intelligence collection efforts, have

shut the Republicans out of any meaningful discussions to move the country

ahead as they had promised to do during the campaign, and have demonstrated

an utter lack of fiscal responsibility by recommending $205 billion in

additional spending over the next four years and two of the biggest tax

increases in American history," said former Bush strategist Karl Rove, who

appeared with Van Hollen.

Republicans say they plan to portray themselves as united and fiscally

responsible, while Democrats are not only irresponsible but incapable of

mustering enough support to pass the legislation they promised during the

2006 campaign.

"Republicans need to keep putting the pressure on Democrats," said one

former party aide who is now working on Capitol Hill. So far, Republicans

have done a good job at exposing Democrats, discrediting them and driving

their negatives through the roof, he said.

"The flip side is come Election Day, we had better offer a better

alternative. You can't build credibility overnight," the aide added.

Republicans are also hoping to take advantage of recent opinion polls that

find support for Congress plummeting among Americans. According to a FOX

News/Opinion Dynamics poll taken in late September, only 24 percent of

respondents approve of the job Congress is doing.

More recently, a November Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 65

percent of Americans disapprove of Congress, five points higher than last

year at the same time and six points higher than 2005.

"I think with the record low approval ratings, Democrats are going to have a

much more difficult time making the case that they are the party of change.

They have forfeited that mantle," claimed Ken Spain, spokesman for the NRCC.

"You only get one chance to make an impression and that window of

opportunity has already closed. They went from being the answer to the

problem to being part of the problem."

But a closer look at these polls finds Republicans have nothing to crow

about yet. In that same Washington Post poll, when the question was broken

down into parties, 63 percent said they disapproved of Republicans in

Congress compared to 58 percent who said they were unhappy with Democrats.

Moreover, respondents said Democrats were in a better position than

Republicans, 50 percent to 34 percent, to handle the war in Iraq. As a

whole, 56 percent of Americans said they had an unfavorable view of the

Republican Party, the highest levels since 1998, when Bill Clinton was

president and the Republican House was engaged in trying to impeach him.

Comparably, 45 percent said they had a negative view of Democrats, up from

41 percent last year.

Nathan Gonzales, analyst for the Rothenberg Political Report, said negative

numbers for Democrats don't necessarily translate into more votes for

Republicans. Many Democrats have expressed frustration with their party in

Congress because they haven't fought Bush and Republicans enough.

"(Those voters) aren't going to support Republicans in 2008," said Gonzales,

who is monitoring the House and Senate races for the Report's tip sheet.

Farnsworth said Bush's lagging approval numbers are still dragging the GOP

down ahead of the next election. "The unpopularity of Bush is an anchor that

drove down candidates in 2007 and can drive down candidates in 2008," he

said.

"This election is going to be about change and which party is best able to

move the country away from the disastrous Bush agenda," said Doug Thornell,

director of communications for the DCCC. "The Republican Party is incapable

of being agents of change given their legacy of support for George Bush, 12

years of incompetence and completely ignoring the problems facing the middle

class."

Meanwhile, both parties are looking toward the presidential nomination

process to gauge how much the top of their tickets will help them come next

fall. Political analysts agree that whoever is leading the party out of what

is becoming an historic primary season will have a big impact on the

down-ticket races.

"Overall, I think the biggest role it will play is it will bring voters to

the polls who likely only come out during presidential elections," said

Costas Panagopoulos, a Fordham University political science professor. "It's

not unusual for turnout to be 20 to 30 points higher than in off-years.

Voting behavior in the congressional race just may be influenced by the

presidential race."

Panagopoulos added that it is not entirely clear which party will benefit

from the emerging issues in the upcoming campaign - immigration, national

security, the economy, even Iraq.

"It all depends on who has a more compelling story to tell. That remains to

be seen."