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http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/08/retirement_wave_building_among.html
Retirement 'Wave' Building Among House Republicans?
By Greg Giroux
Aug. 17, 2007
The announcement Friday by former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.,
that he will not seek re-election in 2008 capped a week in which three
veteran House Republicans in a 24-hour span declared that the current 110th
Congress would be their last.
Hastert's announcement - coupled with similar ones Thursday by Ohio Rep.
Deborah Pryce and Mississippi Rep. Charles W. "Chip" Pickering Jr. - brought
to five the number of House Republicans who are not seeking re-election next
year, compared with two on the Democratic side.
While nearly 15 months remain until the November 2008 election, the
retirement decisions of Hastert, Pryce and Pickering will stoke speculation
of a larger "wave" of GOP departures that would seriously hamper the party's
quest to make the 16-seat gain that they need to regain the House majority
they lost last November.
Democrats pounced on the retirements as evidence of sagging morale in House
Republican ranks and public disenchantment with President Bush and his
party, which ran the House for a dozen years before the 2006 elections.
"It is not surprising House Republicans are disenchanted and calling it
quits given their party's record of obstructing progress on key American
priorities and rubberstamping George Bush's endless war in Iraq," said Doug
Thornell, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
(DCCC), the campaign arm of the House Democrats.
Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee
(NRCC), said that Republicans have anticipated that some in their conference
would announce retirement plans between now and Thanksgiving - but that
party officials are not expecting an atypically high number of open seats to
defend. "Democrats will try to make more out of this than what it really
is," Spain said. "At the end of the day, they will have an extreme amount
of defense that they will have to play."
There has been no similar exodus by Senate Republicans. Only one, Wayne
Allard of Colorado, has announced his retirement. No Democrat has done so.
With Democrats holding a bare one-seat operating majority (49 seats plus two
independents who align with them), Republicans would have a chance to
recapture control of that chamber in 2008 if they can deter popular veteran
incumbents from retiring.
Republican strategists have sought to downplay the recent House retirements
by pointing to the generic Republican leanings of the now-open districts.
Republicans will be heavily favored to retain Pickering's seat in
Mississippi's 3rd District, a conservative bastion that gave President Bush
65 percent of the vote in the 2004 election. They are also confident they
can hold the San Diego-area 52nd District seat that California Republican
Rep. Duncan Hunter is relinquishing as he makes a longshot bid for the
presidential nomination.
Republicans also have an early but not overwhelming edge in Illinois' 18th,
a Peoria-centered district that Republican Rep. Ray LaHood said three weeks
ago he would not defend in the 2008 election.
But the Hastert and Pryce retirements are more problematic for the GOP.
Hastert's 14th District, which takes in suburbs and exurbs west of Chicago
and some rural territory, backed Bush with 55 percent of the vote in the
2004 election. But Bush was more popular three years ago than he is today,
and Hastert's 2006 vote share of 60 percent was his lowest since he first
captured the House seat in 1986. The GOP has struggled in Illinois in recent
elections. Crowded candidate fields have formed in both parties.
It will be even more difficult for Republicans to retain Pryce's 15th
District, which takes in part of Columbus and some suburbs of Ohio's capital
city. Bush barely beat Democratic Sen. John Kerry in the 15th three years
ago, and the presumptive Democratic nominee, Franklin County commissioner
Mary Jo Kilroy, nearly defeated Pryce in 2006 and must be considered at this
early juncture as at least an even-money bet against whomever the
Republicans nominate. Potential Republican candidates include former state
Attorney General Jim Petro and state Rep. Jim Hughes.
NRCC spokesman Spain noted the general Republican slant in Illinois' 14th.
As for Pryce's district, he said that Kilroy last year "couldn't win in the
best political environment [for Democrats] since Watergate."
It was not an accident that LaHood and Hastert made their retirements known
early in the 2007-08 campaign cycle. The Illinois primary election is Feb.
5, the earliest in the nation for congressional candidates (and the earliest
congressional primary in history), and candidates are currently circulating
nomination petitions that must be filed with local election officials by
Nov. 5.
"This is the time that you have to file, one way or the other, so we needed
to make that decision," Hastert said Friday morning on the Chicago radio
station WLS.
A Dec. 3 filing deadline applies to races in Maryland, where the primary is
Feb. 12 - one week after the Illinois primary. Pryce's home state of Ohio
and Pickering's home state of Mississippi are among the five states that
have January filing deadlines; the others are Texas, West Virginia and
Kentucky.
More to Come?
Topping retirement watch lists is 18-term Ohio Rep. Ralph Regula, who at 82
is the second-oldest member of the House. Regula, who represents the 16th
District in and around Canton, has filed a statement of candidacy with the
Federal Election Commission (FEC) that would give him the option to seek
re-election if he so chose. Regula has not announced a decision about his
political plans.
Regula did say in a recent local radio interview that Ohio was trending
Democratic these days and that it was unlikely that the House Republicans
would regain the majority anytime soon.
Candidates already are lining up in Regula's district. The presumptive
Democratic nominee is state Sen. John Boccieri, who would give the
congressman a tough race if Regula chose to run. State Sen. Kirk Schuring
and county commissioner Matt Miller, who took 42 percent against Regula in
the 2006 Republican primary, are preparing to seek the Republican
nomination.
Another potential Republican retiree is three-term Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi,
who has battled questions about his ethical behavior. Renzi has denied
wrongdoing, but his likelihood of strong Democratic opposition and his
meager campaign treasury - he had $20,000 in his campaign account as July
began, far less than at a similar point two years ago - have stoked
speculation that he may not seek re-election in 2008.
Should Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner choose to retire, Rep. Thomas M.
Davis III is expected to run for Warner's seat and leave open a politically
competitive district in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.
Davis' 11th District was redrawn before the 2002 election to have a more
Republican orientation, but recent Democratic gains in northern Virginia -
including the 2006 election of Democrat Jim Webb over Republican Sen. George
Allen - would ensure a highly competitive race if Davis runs for the Senate
and does not seek an eighth term.
The DCCC also is prodding other Republican incumbents to retire by airing
radio ads during the August recess that criticize their voting records. They
include New Jersey Rep. H. James Saxton, 64, and Florida Rep. C.W. Bill
Young, 76, who have been overwhelmingly re-elected but whose districts voted
only marginally Republican for president in 2004.
The Other Side of the Aisle
Just as officials in the minority GOP are seeking to minimize retirements,
Democrats are hopeful that their majority status will encourage their
members to continue to serve - probably in the congressional majority again
and possibly alongside a Democratic president in 2009.
That clearly influenced the decision Thursday by Illinois Democratic Rep.
Luis V. Gutierrez to reverse a retirement announcement he originally made in
December 2005, well before it was clear that his party would win a majority
of House seats.
At this point, only two House Democrats have announced they will not seek
re-election next year: Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Allen of Maine are
both running for the Senate, and Democrats are strongly favored to retain
their districts.
Retirement 'Wave' Building Among House Republicans?
By Greg Giroux
Aug. 17, 2007
The announcement Friday by former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.,
that he will not seek re-election in 2008 capped a week in which three
veteran House Republicans in a 24-hour span declared that the current 110th
Congress would be their last.
Hastert's announcement - coupled with similar ones Thursday by Ohio Rep.
Deborah Pryce and Mississippi Rep. Charles W. "Chip" Pickering Jr. - brought
to five the number of House Republicans who are not seeking re-election next
year, compared with two on the Democratic side.
While nearly 15 months remain until the November 2008 election, the
retirement decisions of Hastert, Pryce and Pickering will stoke speculation
of a larger "wave" of GOP departures that would seriously hamper the party's
quest to make the 16-seat gain that they need to regain the House majority
they lost last November.
Democrats pounced on the retirements as evidence of sagging morale in House
Republican ranks and public disenchantment with President Bush and his
party, which ran the House for a dozen years before the 2006 elections.
"It is not surprising House Republicans are disenchanted and calling it
quits given their party's record of obstructing progress on key American
priorities and rubberstamping George Bush's endless war in Iraq," said Doug
Thornell, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
(DCCC), the campaign arm of the House Democrats.
Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee
(NRCC), said that Republicans have anticipated that some in their conference
would announce retirement plans between now and Thanksgiving - but that
party officials are not expecting an atypically high number of open seats to
defend. "Democrats will try to make more out of this than what it really
is," Spain said. "At the end of the day, they will have an extreme amount
of defense that they will have to play."
There has been no similar exodus by Senate Republicans. Only one, Wayne
Allard of Colorado, has announced his retirement. No Democrat has done so.
With Democrats holding a bare one-seat operating majority (49 seats plus two
independents who align with them), Republicans would have a chance to
recapture control of that chamber in 2008 if they can deter popular veteran
incumbents from retiring.
Republican strategists have sought to downplay the recent House retirements
by pointing to the generic Republican leanings of the now-open districts.
Republicans will be heavily favored to retain Pickering's seat in
Mississippi's 3rd District, a conservative bastion that gave President Bush
65 percent of the vote in the 2004 election. They are also confident they
can hold the San Diego-area 52nd District seat that California Republican
Rep. Duncan Hunter is relinquishing as he makes a longshot bid for the
presidential nomination.
Republicans also have an early but not overwhelming edge in Illinois' 18th,
a Peoria-centered district that Republican Rep. Ray LaHood said three weeks
ago he would not defend in the 2008 election.
But the Hastert and Pryce retirements are more problematic for the GOP.
Hastert's 14th District, which takes in suburbs and exurbs west of Chicago
and some rural territory, backed Bush with 55 percent of the vote in the
2004 election. But Bush was more popular three years ago than he is today,
and Hastert's 2006 vote share of 60 percent was his lowest since he first
captured the House seat in 1986. The GOP has struggled in Illinois in recent
elections. Crowded candidate fields have formed in both parties.
It will be even more difficult for Republicans to retain Pryce's 15th
District, which takes in part of Columbus and some suburbs of Ohio's capital
city. Bush barely beat Democratic Sen. John Kerry in the 15th three years
ago, and the presumptive Democratic nominee, Franklin County commissioner
Mary Jo Kilroy, nearly defeated Pryce in 2006 and must be considered at this
early juncture as at least an even-money bet against whomever the
Republicans nominate. Potential Republican candidates include former state
Attorney General Jim Petro and state Rep. Jim Hughes.
NRCC spokesman Spain noted the general Republican slant in Illinois' 14th.
As for Pryce's district, he said that Kilroy last year "couldn't win in the
best political environment [for Democrats] since Watergate."
It was not an accident that LaHood and Hastert made their retirements known
early in the 2007-08 campaign cycle. The Illinois primary election is Feb.
5, the earliest in the nation for congressional candidates (and the earliest
congressional primary in history), and candidates are currently circulating
nomination petitions that must be filed with local election officials by
Nov. 5.
"This is the time that you have to file, one way or the other, so we needed
to make that decision," Hastert said Friday morning on the Chicago radio
station WLS.
A Dec. 3 filing deadline applies to races in Maryland, where the primary is
Feb. 12 - one week after the Illinois primary. Pryce's home state of Ohio
and Pickering's home state of Mississippi are among the five states that
have January filing deadlines; the others are Texas, West Virginia and
Kentucky.
More to Come?
Topping retirement watch lists is 18-term Ohio Rep. Ralph Regula, who at 82
is the second-oldest member of the House. Regula, who represents the 16th
District in and around Canton, has filed a statement of candidacy with the
Federal Election Commission (FEC) that would give him the option to seek
re-election if he so chose. Regula has not announced a decision about his
political plans.
Regula did say in a recent local radio interview that Ohio was trending
Democratic these days and that it was unlikely that the House Republicans
would regain the majority anytime soon.
Candidates already are lining up in Regula's district. The presumptive
Democratic nominee is state Sen. John Boccieri, who would give the
congressman a tough race if Regula chose to run. State Sen. Kirk Schuring
and county commissioner Matt Miller, who took 42 percent against Regula in
the 2006 Republican primary, are preparing to seek the Republican
nomination.
Another potential Republican retiree is three-term Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi,
who has battled questions about his ethical behavior. Renzi has denied
wrongdoing, but his likelihood of strong Democratic opposition and his
meager campaign treasury - he had $20,000 in his campaign account as July
began, far less than at a similar point two years ago - have stoked
speculation that he may not seek re-election in 2008.
Should Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner choose to retire, Rep. Thomas M.
Davis III is expected to run for Warner's seat and leave open a politically
competitive district in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.
Davis' 11th District was redrawn before the 2002 election to have a more
Republican orientation, but recent Democratic gains in northern Virginia -
including the 2006 election of Democrat Jim Webb over Republican Sen. George
Allen - would ensure a highly competitive race if Davis runs for the Senate
and does not seek an eighth term.
The DCCC also is prodding other Republican incumbents to retire by airing
radio ads during the August recess that criticize their voting records. They
include New Jersey Rep. H. James Saxton, 64, and Florida Rep. C.W. Bill
Young, 76, who have been overwhelmingly re-elected but whose districts voted
only marginally Republican for president in 2004.
The Other Side of the Aisle
Just as officials in the minority GOP are seeking to minimize retirements,
Democrats are hopeful that their majority status will encourage their
members to continue to serve - probably in the congressional majority again
and possibly alongside a Democratic president in 2009.
That clearly influenced the decision Thursday by Illinois Democratic Rep.
Luis V. Gutierrez to reverse a retirement announcement he originally made in
December 2005, well before it was clear that his party would win a majority
of House seats.
At this point, only two House Democrats have announced they will not seek
re-election next year: Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Allen of Maine are
both running for the Senate, and Democrats are strongly favored to retain
their districts.
