K
Kickin' Ass and Takin' Names
Guest
New York's former mayor decided to sit out the first Republican
primaries and start his run for the White House in Florida, with its
57 delegates to the national convention. But the polls suggest he may
have blundered badly ...
Paul Harris in Pensacola, Florida
Sunday January 20, 2008
The Observer
It was meant to be a rally in the bright Florida sunshine, overlooking
the shores of the Gulf of Mexico to hear 'America's Mayor', Rudy
Giuliani, make his pitch to be the next President.
But Florida has a way of upsetting the best-laid plans and a surprise
storm hit Pensacola. Instead of basking in the winter sun, 150 people
crammed inside a bar, sheltering from the driving rain, freezing
temperatures and blustery wind. 'This is strange. No one expected it
to be like this,' said a puzzled Michael O'Hare, a firm Giuliani
supporter.
O'Hare meant the weather, but his comments also summed up Giuliani's
once formidable bid to occupy the White House. For much of the past
two years Giuliani has been frontrunner in the Republican race. His
fame as a leader on 9/11 had won him a heroic place in modern
political mythology and his tough talk on terrorism won widespread
support. His bid was meant to kick off in Florida, the first large
state to vote and with a tally of delegates that dwarfs earlier states
such as Iowa.
That was then. Now Giuliani has slumped in the polls in the state and
has barely figured in the voting contests held so far in Michigan and
New Hampshire. The frontrunner has started to look like an also-ran.
Last week, as he struggled through the storm in Pensacola, it looked
as if Florida's primary on 29 January could end up being his last
stand.
Not that the mood inside Pensacola's Fish House Bar was downbeat.
Giuliani took the stage to the thundering music of drums and trumpets
that seemed to announce not so much a presidential candidate as the
second coming. He smiled and waved amid a cacophony of cheers and
loudly announced: 'I am convinced Florida is Rudy Country. Absolutely
it is.'
It certainly could be. Giuliani's strategy of missing out the early
states in favour of the first big one has never been tried, but it has
a powerful logic. The race for the nomination is won by collecting
delegates to the party's national convention. Florida has 57 of them,
compared with 12 in New Hampshire. Giuliani's advisers assumed his
high national profile from the afterglow of 9/11 would be enough for
him to be able to sit out the early contests.
So Giuliani has in effect been camped out alone in Florida, waiting
for the election to come to him and hitting his key themes of anti-
terrorism, small government and tax cuts. It was a tactic he did not
deviate from last week. Within seconds of taking the stage, he had
tackled the pure red meat of vowing to boost national security
spending and warning of the threat of terrorism.
'We have to keep America on the offensive with the Islamic terrorist
enemy that is against us. In order to do that, we have to have a
strong military. Peace through strength,' he vowed. He went on to say
that the 'peace dividend' of the 1990s, when the US cut military
spending after the end of the Cold War, was 'probably our biggest
mistake as a country'.
Such a message, combined with his promise to give voters 'the biggest
tax cut in history', should be music to the ears of many Florida
voters. The state has more than 20 military bases and many retired
veterans. It also has a large population of former New Yorkers who
think well of their former mayor and for whom 9/11 has an even deeper
resonance than it does for other Americans. They are people like nurse
Darleen Hayes, 36, who was born in the Big Apple. 'If he could do half
of what he did for New York for the rest of the country, that would be
wonderful,' she said.
Experts think Giuliani could still win. Previous states have been
defined by narrow bands of voters, such as evangelicals in Iowa and
southern social conservatives in South Carolina. But that is not true
of Florida. It is a diverse state with a large Hispanic population. It
has big cities like Miami and Orlando, as well as a small-town culture
in the north. It is full of retirees who have come from elsewhere and
its evangelical base is small. 'We look a lot more like the rest of
America than the earlier states,' said Susan MacManus, a political
expert at the University of South Florida.
For a former mayor of a varied city such as New York, who combines
social liberalism with national security, it should be home turf. His
campaign chairman in the state, Bill McCollum, has no doubts. 'We are
going to win Florida for this guy,' he said.
But it has not been so simple. Giuliani has seen his once huge lead in
Florida melt away. Last week he was trailing behind John McCain in the
polls, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were nipping at his heels.
He has been hamstrung by the momentum that each Republican rival has
gained by winning a state. At the same time he has been dogged by a
focus on his colourful personal life and a group of New York
firefighters who have ambushed his claims to be an untarnished hero of
9/11. His financial backers have also started to dry up. Though his
campaign coffers contained about $7m at the start of the year, his
daily spending on Florida's TV can top $300,000 a day. His top
campaign staffers are now working for free.
Even more worryingly, Giuliani's main theme of the 'war on terror' has
increasingly looked out of step. To the surprise of many, the daily
headlines from the war in Iraq have dropped in intensity as American
casualties have fallen in the wake of the 'surge' of troops. Instead,
the economy has emerged as the top issue for voters. Most headlines in
American newspapers are now about repossessed houses, a plunging real
estate market and a sharp fall in stock prices.
Yet the game is far from over. So far the Republican race has been
marked by a chaotic scramble. Huckabee, McCain and Romney have swapped
comebacks and setbacks almost at will. That suits Giuliani as he waits
his turn in Florida. 'Chaos is our friend,' said one Giuliani donor.
Experts agree. All it needs is for Giuliani to win Florida and
suddenly he will be the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday on 5
February. 'If he wins, the race will be transformed,' said MacManus.
That is what Giuliani's band of Florida supporters are pinning their
hopes on. As he wound up his speech in Pensacola, Giuliani ended with
a plea to his audience. 'I need your vote,' he said, before joking: 'I
don't know if you heard, but Florida has become enormously important.'
The crowd laughed and cheered before mobbing him for autographs. For
O'Hare it had been more than enough. 'That was a great speech. It was
what I wanted to hear,' he said. But outside the wind and rain were
still blowing hard. The weather was still unpredictable in Florida and
the outlook was bleak.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/rudygiuliani/story/0,,2243835,00.html
primaries and start his run for the White House in Florida, with its
57 delegates to the national convention. But the polls suggest he may
have blundered badly ...
Paul Harris in Pensacola, Florida
Sunday January 20, 2008
The Observer
It was meant to be a rally in the bright Florida sunshine, overlooking
the shores of the Gulf of Mexico to hear 'America's Mayor', Rudy
Giuliani, make his pitch to be the next President.
But Florida has a way of upsetting the best-laid plans and a surprise
storm hit Pensacola. Instead of basking in the winter sun, 150 people
crammed inside a bar, sheltering from the driving rain, freezing
temperatures and blustery wind. 'This is strange. No one expected it
to be like this,' said a puzzled Michael O'Hare, a firm Giuliani
supporter.
O'Hare meant the weather, but his comments also summed up Giuliani's
once formidable bid to occupy the White House. For much of the past
two years Giuliani has been frontrunner in the Republican race. His
fame as a leader on 9/11 had won him a heroic place in modern
political mythology and his tough talk on terrorism won widespread
support. His bid was meant to kick off in Florida, the first large
state to vote and with a tally of delegates that dwarfs earlier states
such as Iowa.
That was then. Now Giuliani has slumped in the polls in the state and
has barely figured in the voting contests held so far in Michigan and
New Hampshire. The frontrunner has started to look like an also-ran.
Last week, as he struggled through the storm in Pensacola, it looked
as if Florida's primary on 29 January could end up being his last
stand.
Not that the mood inside Pensacola's Fish House Bar was downbeat.
Giuliani took the stage to the thundering music of drums and trumpets
that seemed to announce not so much a presidential candidate as the
second coming. He smiled and waved amid a cacophony of cheers and
loudly announced: 'I am convinced Florida is Rudy Country. Absolutely
it is.'
It certainly could be. Giuliani's strategy of missing out the early
states in favour of the first big one has never been tried, but it has
a powerful logic. The race for the nomination is won by collecting
delegates to the party's national convention. Florida has 57 of them,
compared with 12 in New Hampshire. Giuliani's advisers assumed his
high national profile from the afterglow of 9/11 would be enough for
him to be able to sit out the early contests.
So Giuliani has in effect been camped out alone in Florida, waiting
for the election to come to him and hitting his key themes of anti-
terrorism, small government and tax cuts. It was a tactic he did not
deviate from last week. Within seconds of taking the stage, he had
tackled the pure red meat of vowing to boost national security
spending and warning of the threat of terrorism.
'We have to keep America on the offensive with the Islamic terrorist
enemy that is against us. In order to do that, we have to have a
strong military. Peace through strength,' he vowed. He went on to say
that the 'peace dividend' of the 1990s, when the US cut military
spending after the end of the Cold War, was 'probably our biggest
mistake as a country'.
Such a message, combined with his promise to give voters 'the biggest
tax cut in history', should be music to the ears of many Florida
voters. The state has more than 20 military bases and many retired
veterans. It also has a large population of former New Yorkers who
think well of their former mayor and for whom 9/11 has an even deeper
resonance than it does for other Americans. They are people like nurse
Darleen Hayes, 36, who was born in the Big Apple. 'If he could do half
of what he did for New York for the rest of the country, that would be
wonderful,' she said.
Experts think Giuliani could still win. Previous states have been
defined by narrow bands of voters, such as evangelicals in Iowa and
southern social conservatives in South Carolina. But that is not true
of Florida. It is a diverse state with a large Hispanic population. It
has big cities like Miami and Orlando, as well as a small-town culture
in the north. It is full of retirees who have come from elsewhere and
its evangelical base is small. 'We look a lot more like the rest of
America than the earlier states,' said Susan MacManus, a political
expert at the University of South Florida.
For a former mayor of a varied city such as New York, who combines
social liberalism with national security, it should be home turf. His
campaign chairman in the state, Bill McCollum, has no doubts. 'We are
going to win Florida for this guy,' he said.
But it has not been so simple. Giuliani has seen his once huge lead in
Florida melt away. Last week he was trailing behind John McCain in the
polls, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were nipping at his heels.
He has been hamstrung by the momentum that each Republican rival has
gained by winning a state. At the same time he has been dogged by a
focus on his colourful personal life and a group of New York
firefighters who have ambushed his claims to be an untarnished hero of
9/11. His financial backers have also started to dry up. Though his
campaign coffers contained about $7m at the start of the year, his
daily spending on Florida's TV can top $300,000 a day. His top
campaign staffers are now working for free.
Even more worryingly, Giuliani's main theme of the 'war on terror' has
increasingly looked out of step. To the surprise of many, the daily
headlines from the war in Iraq have dropped in intensity as American
casualties have fallen in the wake of the 'surge' of troops. Instead,
the economy has emerged as the top issue for voters. Most headlines in
American newspapers are now about repossessed houses, a plunging real
estate market and a sharp fall in stock prices.
Yet the game is far from over. So far the Republican race has been
marked by a chaotic scramble. Huckabee, McCain and Romney have swapped
comebacks and setbacks almost at will. That suits Giuliani as he waits
his turn in Florida. 'Chaos is our friend,' said one Giuliani donor.
Experts agree. All it needs is for Giuliani to win Florida and
suddenly he will be the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday on 5
February. 'If he wins, the race will be transformed,' said MacManus.
That is what Giuliani's band of Florida supporters are pinning their
hopes on. As he wound up his speech in Pensacola, Giuliani ended with
a plea to his audience. 'I need your vote,' he said, before joking: 'I
don't know if you heard, but Florida has become enormously important.'
The crowd laughed and cheered before mobbing him for autographs. For
O'Hare it had been more than enough. 'That was a great speech. It was
what I wanted to hear,' he said. But outside the wind and rain were
still blowing hard. The weather was still unpredictable in Florida and
the outlook was bleak.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/rudygiuliani/story/0,,2243835,00.html