K
Kickin' Ass and Takin' Names
Guest
Highly Skilled And Out Of Work
Long-Term Joblessness Spreads in Middle Class
By Michael A. Fletcher
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 21, 2008; A01
An unusually large share of workers have been out a job for more than
six months even as overall unemployment has remained low, a little-
noted weakness in the labor market that analysts said threatens to
intensify the impact of the unfolding economic downturn.
In November, nearly 1.4 million people -- almost one in five of those
unemployed -- had been jobless for at least 27 weeks, the juncture
when unemployment insurance benefits end for most recipients. That is
about twice the level of long-term unemployment before the 2001
recession.
The problem is ensnaring a broader swath of workers than before. Once
concentrated among manufacturing workers and those with little work
history, education or skills, long-term unemployment is growing most
rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work
experience, studies have found, making the problem difficult for
policymakers to address even as it grows more urgent.
"What has happened is a polarization of the labor market. It was very
strong at the very top and very strong until recently at the bottom,"
said Lawrence F. Katz, a labor economist at Harvard University. "But
in the recent weak recovery, and now recession, demand has been very
weak" for jobs in the middle.
Caroline Dixon never contemplated any of that when she resigned in
April after nine months as a program officer with the Spina Bifida
Association. She left because the job was "a bad fit," and she said
she was confident that the economy was strong and she would soon find
work. For a long time, she never stopped in the unemployment office on
Naylor Road near her Southeast Washington home.
But as weeks out of work stretched into months, Dixon, 41, became a
fixture there. Now she can be found there on weekdays, spending untold
hours at the heavily used computer bank checking out potential
employers, printing job notices and e-mailing her r¿sum¿. "I
jokingly tell people that I'm headed to my office when I'm coming
here," she said, without a smile.
With the economy sliding toward a possible recession and the jobless
rate having spiked to 5 percent last month, the already high rate of
long-term unemployment is likely to grow, as it has during past
slowdowns, a prospect that has spawned calls in Congress and on the
presidential campaign trail to extend unemployment benefits and expand
tax cuts to protect jobs and fuel the economy.
The growth in long-term unemployment has occurred even as displaced
workers have taken bigger pay cuts to reenter the job market. A 2004
study found that workers who lost a job in 2001 to 2003 took an
average pay cut of 17 percent in their new jobs, more than double the
average cut of those displaced in the late 1990s.
"When people are losing good jobs these days, they have a very hard
time getting back to the type of job they had before," said Andrew
Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, an
advocacy group that presses for more generous unemployment benefits.
While strong corporate profits, low inflation and record manufacturing
output characterized the extended recovery that followed the 2001
recession, some economists call that period of expansion a "CEO's
recovery." Real wages were mostly flat, poverty ticked upward and an
unusual number of people had a hard time finding work -- a fact masked
by relatively low overall unemployment rates.
"This tells you that this has not been as good an economy as the
overall unemployment rate would make it seem," said John Schmitt, a
senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "This
dynamic causes anxiety among people even if they still have a job. It
is very important to understanding the level of anxiety that the work
force feels as a whole."
Dixon estimates that she has sent out more than 100 r¿sum¿s,
yielding four interviews. And nobody is talking about paying her
anything near the $65,000 she made in her last job. "All of my friends
keep telling me, 'You'll get a job,' " Dixon said. "But that's what I
thought six months ago, and I still don't have one."
Dixon said she and her friends and family grow more anxious the longer
she is out of work. For nearly all of her life, having a job was a
given: Her late father had worked 35 years for Washington Gas; her
mother retired from her last job after more than 15 years. After
graduating from college in 1989, Dixon worked for 16 years at the
American Forest Foundation before moving to the Spina Bifida
Association in the District.
These days, her mother, who lives in Capitol Heights, often sends
Dixon encouraging notes with Safeway gift cards tucked inside. "I'm
sure she's concerned," Dixon said. "She's always asking, 'So, how's
the job hunt going?' I tell her, 'If I had a job, you'd be one of the
first people I'd tell.' "
Dixon has managed to stay afloat by occasionally working as a
substitute teacher at the Washington Middle School for Girls, using a
small profit she earns from a rental property and tapping into her
savings. She said she considers herself lucky to get free health
insurance through a D.C. program that provides coverage for the
unemployed.
Still, things are getting tight for Dixon, who is single and has no
children. "I need a safety net under my safety net," she said.
Officials who work with the jobless said they are seeing more people
like Dixon-- educated, with stable work histories -- having a hard
time finding a job.
"It seems like for the skilled worker who has experience and
credentials, finding a job that matches their skill and experience is
like reaching for the brass ring on the carousel," said Howard H.
Marshall, manager of the Baltimore County Workforce Development Center
in Hunt Valley. "A lot of people are grabbing for it, and only few
will get it."
Jan W. Saurbaugh, 57, a former computer specialist who lives in
Timonium, Md., started working at 14, when he got a paper route. By
19, he had joined the Marines. For most of his life, he has worked
steadily, shifting with life's circumstances and the economic
currents.
After leaving the military, he trained and worked as a welder. When
neck injuries from an auto accident left him unable to do that, he
went to community college to learn computer-assisted drafting, which
led to seven years of work with the Coast Guard in Baltimore.
Saurbaugh, who exudes an old-school formality with his ramrod straight
posture, tightly knotted necktie and neatly pressed corduroys, said he
made the mistake of his career when he left his drafting job for a
computer-related Coast Guard job in Washington. The position was
officially designated as temporary but offered an immediate $12,000-a-
year increase over his $38,000 salary and the promise of more raises.
"One guy told me, 'I've been on temporary status with the federal
government 13 years, and I've always had a job,' " Saurbaugh said,
which put his misgivings to rest. But then Saurbaugh faced what he
called a "bad turn of events."
Scrambling to complete his bachelor's degree, Saurbaugh found himself
getting little sleep and struggling with the commute to Washington. He
developed a sleep disorder that caused him to miss significant time at
work. Nine months after taking the job, he resigned under pressure. A
sheaf of commendations and awards he had accumulated with the Coast
Guard could not save his job.
"I was devastated that I didn't have work," Saurbaugh said. "But I
figured I was just a couple of months away from my degree. I figured
once I had it, somebody would pick me up."
That was more than two years ago. In between, he has worked only three
months -- at a car dealership where a childhood friend is a manager.
"I sold eight cars a month for three months. That wasn't cutting it. I
am just not a car salesman," he said.
Saurbaugh, whose wife is partially disabled, has sold his camper and
drained his retirement accounts and is now dependent on family for
survival. His elderly in-laws took a home-equity loan to pay the
mortgage on his three-bedroom Cape Cod, and his brother-in-law pays
for the couple's health insurance. "I thought by this time in my life,
I'd be the one peeling off a few bills for someone," he said. "I hate
asking people for money."
He said that if he doesn't find work soon, he will have to sell his
house. Saurbaugh said he has looked for jobs everywhere, even applying
at electronics stores and bulk-office-supply businesses. But, so far,
nothing.
"I keep telling my wife: 'Things are going to work out. They'll work
out," he said, shaking his head. "But they haven't."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/20/AR2008012002368.html?hpid=topnews
Long-Term Joblessness Spreads in Middle Class
By Michael A. Fletcher
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, January 21, 2008; A01
An unusually large share of workers have been out a job for more than
six months even as overall unemployment has remained low, a little-
noted weakness in the labor market that analysts said threatens to
intensify the impact of the unfolding economic downturn.
In November, nearly 1.4 million people -- almost one in five of those
unemployed -- had been jobless for at least 27 weeks, the juncture
when unemployment insurance benefits end for most recipients. That is
about twice the level of long-term unemployment before the 2001
recession.
The problem is ensnaring a broader swath of workers than before. Once
concentrated among manufacturing workers and those with little work
history, education or skills, long-term unemployment is growing most
rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work
experience, studies have found, making the problem difficult for
policymakers to address even as it grows more urgent.
"What has happened is a polarization of the labor market. It was very
strong at the very top and very strong until recently at the bottom,"
said Lawrence F. Katz, a labor economist at Harvard University. "But
in the recent weak recovery, and now recession, demand has been very
weak" for jobs in the middle.
Caroline Dixon never contemplated any of that when she resigned in
April after nine months as a program officer with the Spina Bifida
Association. She left because the job was "a bad fit," and she said
she was confident that the economy was strong and she would soon find
work. For a long time, she never stopped in the unemployment office on
Naylor Road near her Southeast Washington home.
But as weeks out of work stretched into months, Dixon, 41, became a
fixture there. Now she can be found there on weekdays, spending untold
hours at the heavily used computer bank checking out potential
employers, printing job notices and e-mailing her r¿sum¿. "I
jokingly tell people that I'm headed to my office when I'm coming
here," she said, without a smile.
With the economy sliding toward a possible recession and the jobless
rate having spiked to 5 percent last month, the already high rate of
long-term unemployment is likely to grow, as it has during past
slowdowns, a prospect that has spawned calls in Congress and on the
presidential campaign trail to extend unemployment benefits and expand
tax cuts to protect jobs and fuel the economy.
The growth in long-term unemployment has occurred even as displaced
workers have taken bigger pay cuts to reenter the job market. A 2004
study found that workers who lost a job in 2001 to 2003 took an
average pay cut of 17 percent in their new jobs, more than double the
average cut of those displaced in the late 1990s.
"When people are losing good jobs these days, they have a very hard
time getting back to the type of job they had before," said Andrew
Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, an
advocacy group that presses for more generous unemployment benefits.
While strong corporate profits, low inflation and record manufacturing
output characterized the extended recovery that followed the 2001
recession, some economists call that period of expansion a "CEO's
recovery." Real wages were mostly flat, poverty ticked upward and an
unusual number of people had a hard time finding work -- a fact masked
by relatively low overall unemployment rates.
"This tells you that this has not been as good an economy as the
overall unemployment rate would make it seem," said John Schmitt, a
senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "This
dynamic causes anxiety among people even if they still have a job. It
is very important to understanding the level of anxiety that the work
force feels as a whole."
Dixon estimates that she has sent out more than 100 r¿sum¿s,
yielding four interviews. And nobody is talking about paying her
anything near the $65,000 she made in her last job. "All of my friends
keep telling me, 'You'll get a job,' " Dixon said. "But that's what I
thought six months ago, and I still don't have one."
Dixon said she and her friends and family grow more anxious the longer
she is out of work. For nearly all of her life, having a job was a
given: Her late father had worked 35 years for Washington Gas; her
mother retired from her last job after more than 15 years. After
graduating from college in 1989, Dixon worked for 16 years at the
American Forest Foundation before moving to the Spina Bifida
Association in the District.
These days, her mother, who lives in Capitol Heights, often sends
Dixon encouraging notes with Safeway gift cards tucked inside. "I'm
sure she's concerned," Dixon said. "She's always asking, 'So, how's
the job hunt going?' I tell her, 'If I had a job, you'd be one of the
first people I'd tell.' "
Dixon has managed to stay afloat by occasionally working as a
substitute teacher at the Washington Middle School for Girls, using a
small profit she earns from a rental property and tapping into her
savings. She said she considers herself lucky to get free health
insurance through a D.C. program that provides coverage for the
unemployed.
Still, things are getting tight for Dixon, who is single and has no
children. "I need a safety net under my safety net," she said.
Officials who work with the jobless said they are seeing more people
like Dixon-- educated, with stable work histories -- having a hard
time finding a job.
"It seems like for the skilled worker who has experience and
credentials, finding a job that matches their skill and experience is
like reaching for the brass ring on the carousel," said Howard H.
Marshall, manager of the Baltimore County Workforce Development Center
in Hunt Valley. "A lot of people are grabbing for it, and only few
will get it."
Jan W. Saurbaugh, 57, a former computer specialist who lives in
Timonium, Md., started working at 14, when he got a paper route. By
19, he had joined the Marines. For most of his life, he has worked
steadily, shifting with life's circumstances and the economic
currents.
After leaving the military, he trained and worked as a welder. When
neck injuries from an auto accident left him unable to do that, he
went to community college to learn computer-assisted drafting, which
led to seven years of work with the Coast Guard in Baltimore.
Saurbaugh, who exudes an old-school formality with his ramrod straight
posture, tightly knotted necktie and neatly pressed corduroys, said he
made the mistake of his career when he left his drafting job for a
computer-related Coast Guard job in Washington. The position was
officially designated as temporary but offered an immediate $12,000-a-
year increase over his $38,000 salary and the promise of more raises.
"One guy told me, 'I've been on temporary status with the federal
government 13 years, and I've always had a job,' " Saurbaugh said,
which put his misgivings to rest. But then Saurbaugh faced what he
called a "bad turn of events."
Scrambling to complete his bachelor's degree, Saurbaugh found himself
getting little sleep and struggling with the commute to Washington. He
developed a sleep disorder that caused him to miss significant time at
work. Nine months after taking the job, he resigned under pressure. A
sheaf of commendations and awards he had accumulated with the Coast
Guard could not save his job.
"I was devastated that I didn't have work," Saurbaugh said. "But I
figured I was just a couple of months away from my degree. I figured
once I had it, somebody would pick me up."
That was more than two years ago. In between, he has worked only three
months -- at a car dealership where a childhood friend is a manager.
"I sold eight cars a month for three months. That wasn't cutting it. I
am just not a car salesman," he said.
Saurbaugh, whose wife is partially disabled, has sold his camper and
drained his retirement accounts and is now dependent on family for
survival. His elderly in-laws took a home-equity loan to pay the
mortgage on his three-bedroom Cape Cod, and his brother-in-law pays
for the couple's health insurance. "I thought by this time in my life,
I'd be the one peeling off a few bills for someone," he said. "I hate
asking people for money."
He said that if he doesn't find work soon, he will have to sell his
house. Saurbaugh said he has looked for jobs everywhere, even applying
at electronics stores and bulk-office-supply businesses. But, so far,
nothing.
"I keep telling my wife: 'Things are going to work out. They'll work
out," he said, shaking his head. "But they haven't."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/20/AR2008012002368.html?hpid=topnews
