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Al-Qaida has rebuilt, U.S. intel warns
By MATTHEW LEE and KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writers 12
minutes ago
WASHINGTON - A new threat assessment from U.S. counterterrorism
analysts says that al-Qaida has used its safe haven along the Afghan-
Pakistan border to restore its operating capabilities to a level
unseen since the months before Sept. 11, 2001.
A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the
document - titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West" -
called it a stark appraisal. The analysis will be part of a broader
meeting at the White House on Thursday about an upcoming National
Intelligence Estimate.
The official and others spoke to The Associated Press on condition
they not be identified because the report remains classified.
The findings suggests that the network that launched the most
devastating terror attack on U.S. soil has been able to regroup
despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at
dismantling it.
The threat assessment focuses on the terror group's safe haven in
Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to
the United States and its allies, officials said.
Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al-
Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary
Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States
faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.
Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific,
credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil.
Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and
has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the counterterrorism
official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are
showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the
United States."
The group also has created "the most robust training program since
2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official
quoted the report as saying.
At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of
"significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant
of potential or planned attacks.
John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the
concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and
conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee
hearing on Wednesday.
"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the
ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more
training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that
activity rising."
The threat assessment comes as the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies
prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the
United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition
of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being completed, said
the document has been in the works for roughly two years.
Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell
would not comment on the details of that analysis.
"Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific
threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it
probably will be ready for distribution this summer.
Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the concern. In
studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida
would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the
easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.
Several European countries - among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and
the Netherlands - are highlighted in the threat assessment partly
because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that
allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according
to the counterterrorism official.
This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa
waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without
additional security scrutiny, the official said.
The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key
justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.
"The No. 1 enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida," White House press secretary
Tony Snow said Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief
organizer of mayhem within Iraq."
The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when
support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration
is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq.
The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to
"improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not
succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a
peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed
government military presence from the northwest frontier with
Afghanistan.
The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across
the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the
report says, according to the official.
It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up
the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is
not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.
"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3
person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House
panel.
The report also notes that al-Qaida has increased its public
statements, although analysts stressed that those video and audio
messages aren't reliable indicators of the actions the group may take.
By MATTHEW LEE and KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writers 12
minutes ago
WASHINGTON - A new threat assessment from U.S. counterterrorism
analysts says that al-Qaida has used its safe haven along the Afghan-
Pakistan border to restore its operating capabilities to a level
unseen since the months before Sept. 11, 2001.
A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the
document - titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West" -
called it a stark appraisal. The analysis will be part of a broader
meeting at the White House on Thursday about an upcoming National
Intelligence Estimate.
The official and others spoke to The Associated Press on condition
they not be identified because the report remains classified.
The findings suggests that the network that launched the most
devastating terror attack on U.S. soil has been able to regroup
despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at
dismantling it.
The threat assessment focuses on the terror group's safe haven in
Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to
the United States and its allies, officials said.
Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al-
Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary
Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States
faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.
Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific,
credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil.
Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and
has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the counterterrorism
official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are
showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the
United States."
The group also has created "the most robust training program since
2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official
quoted the report as saying.
At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of
"significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant
of potential or planned attacks.
John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the
concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and
conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee
hearing on Wednesday.
"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the
ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more
training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that
activity rising."
The threat assessment comes as the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies
prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the
United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition
of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being completed, said
the document has been in the works for roughly two years.
Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell
would not comment on the details of that analysis.
"Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific
threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it
probably will be ready for distribution this summer.
Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the concern. In
studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida
would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the
easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.
Several European countries - among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and
the Netherlands - are highlighted in the threat assessment partly
because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that
allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according
to the counterterrorism official.
This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa
waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without
additional security scrutiny, the official said.
The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key
justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.
"The No. 1 enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida," White House press secretary
Tony Snow said Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief
organizer of mayhem within Iraq."
The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when
support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration
is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq.
The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to
"improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not
succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a
peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed
government military presence from the northwest frontier with
Afghanistan.
The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across
the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the
report says, according to the official.
It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up
the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is
not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.
"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3
person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House
panel.
The report also notes that al-Qaida has increased its public
statements, although analysts stressed that those video and audio
messages aren't reliable indicators of the actions the group may take.