Guest Gandalf Grey Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 Tomgram: Dilip Hiro on the Sole Superpower in Decline By Tom Engelhardt Created Aug 20 2007 - 9:32am - from TomDispatch [1] Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan. So imagine, when President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan arrived in Washington a couple of weeks back and promptly described [2] Iran as "a helper and a solution" for his country, even as President Bush insisted [3] in his presence: "I would be very cautious about whether or not the Iranian influence in Afghanistan is a positive force." At almost the same moment, Iraq's embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki paid an official visit [4] to Iran, undoubtedly looking for support [5] in case the U.S. turned on his government. Maliki "held hands" with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and called for cooperation. In response, all President Bush could do was issue a vague threat [6]: "I will have to have a heart to heart with my friend, the prime minister, because I don't believe [the Iranians] are constructive.... My message to him is, when we catch you playing a non-constructive role, there will be a price to pay." (Later, a National Security Council spokesman had to offer a correction, insisting the threat was aimed only at Iran, not Maliki.) Then, to add insult to injury, just a week after Bush and Karzai met in Washington, Ahmadinejad headed for Kabul [7] with a high-ranking Iranian delegation to pay his respects to the Afghan president "in open defiance of Washington's wishes." Think slap in the face. What made this little regional diplomatic dance all the more curious was the fact that Karzai and Maliki are such weak (and weakening) American-backed leaders -- Maliki of a government in chaos whose purview hardly extends beyond the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, and Karzai, sometimes dubbed the "mayor of Kabul," as head of a government visibly losing control over even the modest areas it has ruled. In another age, each would have been dubbed an American "puppet" and yet, here they were, defying an American president in search of support from a hated regional power on whose curbing Bush has staked what's left of his presidency. Meanwhile, the first joint Sino-Russian "military exercise" on Russian soil (witnessed by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin) had barely ended when Putin announced [8] late last week, not from Russia but from the former Central Asian soviet socialist republic of Kazakhstan, that "regular long-range air patrols that ended after the Soviet Union collapsed" would now be resumed -- and not just over Russian air space either. The planes in these patrols are nuclear-armed and "capable [9] of striking targets deep inside the United States." Think of this as one way in which the Russian President, thoroughly irritated with the Bush administration's decision to implant elements of an American anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic, was using military symbolism to reassert his country's right to Great Power status -- a status earned in recent years, thanks to its enormous energy reserves. All a State Department official could say in response was: "If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that's their decision." Meanwhile, halfway across the globe, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's government was reportedly on the verge of announcing a new deal with Putin's Russia. Having already purchased Russian jets, helicopters, and whole plants [10] to build Kalashnikov assault rifles (in the face of an embargo on American arms), it would now buy 5,000 [11] advanced Dragunov sniper rifles. Again the deploring sounds from Washington were remarkably mild. When it comes to discovering regular signs like these of the visible decline of American global power, you can actually do this exercise yourself. Just keep an eye on your daily paper -- or don't bother and instead check out the latest piece from Dilip Hiro. British Guardian regular and Middle Eastern expert, he is the author most recently of Blood of the Earth, The Battle for the World's Vanishing Oil Resources [12], which focuses on the changing relationship between the possession of hydrocarbon reserves and global power. With the black hole of Iraq sucking all Bush administration efforts into its vortex, much of the globe seems to have been quietly released to enhance its power at the expense of the sole superpower. -- Tom The Sole Superpower in Decline: The Rise of a Multipolar World by Dilip Hiro With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States stood tall -- militarily invincible, economically unrivalled, diplomatically uncontestable, and the dominating force on information channels worldwide. The next century was to be the true "American century," with the rest of the world molding itself in the image of the sole superpower. Yet, with not even a decade of this century behind us, we are already witnessing the rise of a multipolar world in which new powers are challenging different aspects of American supremacy -- Russia and China in the forefront, with regional powers Venezuela and Iran forming the second rank. These emergent powers are primed to erode American hegemony, not confront it, singly or jointly. How and why has the world evolved in this way so soon? The Bush administration's debacle in Iraq is certainly a major factor in this transformation, a classic example of an imperialist power, brimming with hubris, over-extending itself. To the relief of many -- in the U. S. and elsewhere -- the Iraq fiasco has demonstrated the striking limitations of power for the globe's highest-tech, most destructive military machine. In Iraq, Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser to two U.S. presidents, concedes in a recent op-ed, "We are being wrestled to a draw by opponents who are not even an organized state adversary." The invasion and subsequent disastrous occupation of Iraq and the mismanaged military campaign in Afghanistan have crippled the credibility of the United States. The scandals at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and Guantanamo in Cuba, along with the widely publicized murders of Iraqi civilians in Haditha, have badly tarnished America's moral self-image. In the latest opinion poll, even in a secular state and member of NATO like Turkey, only 9% of Turks have a "favorable view" of the U.S. (down from 52% just five years ago). Yet there are other explanations -- unrelated to Washington's glaring misadventures -- for the current transformation in international affairs. These include, above all, the tightening market in oil and natural gas, which has enhanced the power of hydrocarbon-rich nations as never before; the rapid economic expansion of the mega-nations China and India; the transformation of China into the globe's leading manufacturing base; and the end of the Anglo-American duopoly in international television news. Many Channels, Diverse Perceptions During the 1991 Gulf War, only CNN and the BBC had correspondents in Baghdad. So the international TV audience, irrespective of its location, saw the conflict through their lenses. Twelve years later, when the Bush administration, backed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, invaded Iraq, Al Jazeera Arabic broke this duopoly. It relayed images -- and facts -- that contradicted the Pentagon's presentation. For the first time in history, the world witnessed two versions of an ongoing war in real time. So credible was the Al Jazeera Arabic version that many television companies outside the Arabic-speaking world -- in Europe, Asia and Latin America -- showed its clips. Though, in theory, the growth of cable television worldwide raised the prospect of ending the Anglo-American duopoly in 24-hour TV news, not much had happened due to the exorbitant cost of gathering and editing TV news. It was only the arrival of Al Jazeera English, funded by the hydrocarbon-rich emirate of Qatar -- with its declared policy of offering a global perspective from an Arab and Muslim angle -- that, in 2006, finally broke the long-established mold. Soon France 24 came on the air, broadcasting in English and French from a French viewpoint, followed in mid-2007 by the English-language Press TV, which aimed to provide an Iranian perspective. Russia was next in line for 24-hour TV news in English for the global audience. Meanwhile, spurred by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Telesur, a pan-Latin-American TV channel based in Caracas, began competing with CNN in Spanish for a mass audience. As with Qatar, so with Russia and Venezuela, the funding for these TV news ventures has come from soaring national hydrocarbon incomes -- a factor draining American hegemony not just in imagery but in reality. Russia, an Energy Superpower Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has more than recovered from the economic chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. After effectively renationalizing the energy industry through state-controlled corporations, he began deploying its economic clout to further Russia's foreign policy interests. In 2005, Russia overtook the United States, becoming the second largest oil producer in the world. Its oil income now amounts to $679 million a day. European countries dependent on imported Russian oil now include Hungary, Poland, Germany, and even Britain. Russia is also the largest producer of natural gas on the planet, with three-fifths of its gas exports going to the 27-member European Union (EU). Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia get 100% of their natural gas from Russia; Turkey, 66%; Poland, 58%; Germany 41%; and France 25%. Gazprom, the biggest natural gas enterprise on Earth, has established stakes in sixteen EU countries. In 2006, the Kremlin's foreign reserves stood at $315 billion, up from a paltry $12 billion in 1999. Little wonder that, in July 2006 on the eve of the G8 summit in St Petersburg, Putin rejected an energy charter proposed by the Western leaders. Soaring foreign-exchange reserves, new ballistic missiles, and closer links with a prospering China -- with which it conducted joint military exercises on China's Shandong Peninsula in August 2005 -- enabled Putin to deal with his American counterpart, President George W. Bush, as an equal, not mincing his words when appraising American policies. "One country, the United States, has overstepped its national boundaries in every way," Putin told the 43rd Munich Trans-Atlantic conference on security policy in February 2007. "This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations.This is very dangerous." Condemning the concept of a "unipolar world," he added: "However one might embellish this term, at the end of the day it describes a scenario in which there is one center of authority, one center of force, one center of decision-making.It is a world in which there is one master, one sovereign. And this is pernicious." His views fell on receptive ears in the capitals of most Asian, African, and Latin American countries. The changing relationship between Moscow and Washington was noted, among others, by analysts and policy-makers in the hydrocarbon-rich Persian Gulf region. Commenting on the visit that Putin paid to long-time U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar after the Munich conference, Abdel Aziz Sagar, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, wrote in the Doha-based newspaper The Peninsula that Russia and Gulf Arab countries, once rivals from opposite ideological camps, had found a common agenda of oil, anti-terrorism, and arms sales. "The altered focus takes place in a milieu where the Gulf countries are signaling their keenness to keep all geopolitical options open, reviewing the utility of the United States as the sole security guarantor, and contemplating a collective security mechanism that involves a host of international players." In April 2007, the Kremlin issued a major foreign policy document. "The myth about the unipolar world fell apart once and for all in Iraq," it stated. "A strong, more self-confident Russia has become an integral part of positive changes in the world." The Kremlin's increasingly tense relations with Washington were in tune with Russian popular opinion. A poll taken during the run-up to the 2006 G8 summit revealed that 58% of Russians regarded America as an "unfriendly country." It has proved to be a trend. This July, for instance, Major Gen Alexandr Vladimirov told the mass circulation newspaper Komsolskya Pravada that war with the United States was a "possibility" in the next ten to fifteen years. Chavez Rides High Such sentiments resonated with Hugo Chavez. While visiting Moscow in June 2007, he urged Russians to return to the ideas of Vladimir Lenin, especially his anti-imperialism. "The Americans don't want Russia to keep rising," he said. "But Russia has risen again as a center of power, and we, the people of the world, need Russia to become stronger." Chavez finalized a $1 billion deal to purchase five diesel submarines to defend Venezuela's oil-rich undersea shelf and thwart any possible future economic embargo imposed by Washington. By then, Venezuela had become the second largest buyer of Russian weaponry. (Algeria topped the list, another indication of a growing multipolarity in world affairs.) Venezuela acquired the distinction of being the first country to receive a license from Russia to manufacture the famed AK-47 assault rifle. By channeling some of his country's oil money to needy Venezuelans, Chavez broadened his base of support. Much to the chagrin of the Bush White House, he trounced his sole political rival, Manuel Rosales, in a December 2006 presidential contest with 61% of the vote. Equally humiliating to the Bush administration, Venezuela was, by then, giving more foreign aid to needy Latin American states than it was. Following his reelection, Chavez vigorously pursued the concept of forming an anti-imperialist alliance in Latin America as well as globally. He strengthened Venezuela's ties not only with such Latin countries as Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and debt-ridden Argentina, but also with Iran and Belarus. By the time he arrived in Tehran from Moscow (via Minsk) in June 2007, the 180 economic and political accords his government had signed with Tehran were already yielding tangible results. Iranian-designed cars and tractors were coming off assembly lines in Venezuela. "[The] cooperation of independent countries like Iran and Venezuela has an effective role in defeating the policies of imperialism and saving nations," Chavez declared in Tehran. Stuck in the quagmire of Iraq and lashed by the gusty winds of rocketing oil prices, the Bush administration finds its area of maneuver woefully limited when dealing with a rising hydrocarbon power. To the insults that Chavez keeps hurling at Bush, the American response has been vapid. The reason is the crippling dependence of the United States on imported petroleum which accounts for 60% of its total consumed. Venezuela is the fourth largest source of U.S. imported oil after Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia; and some refineries in the U.S. are designed specifically to refine heavy Venezuelan oil. In Chavez's scheme to undermine the "sole superpower," China has an important role. During an August 2006 visit to Beijing, his fourth in seven years, he announced that Venezuela would triple its oil exports to China to 500,000 barrels per day in three years, a jump that suited both sides. Chavez wants to diversify Venezuela's buyer base to reduce its reliance on exports to the U.S., and China's leaders are keen to diversify their hydrocarbon imports away from the Middle East, where American influence remains strong. "The support of China is very important [to us] from the political and moral point of view," Chavez declared. Along with a joint refinery project, China agreed to build thirteen oil drilling platforms, supply eighteen oil tankers, and collaborate with the state-owned company, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), in exploring a new oilfield in the Orinoco Basin. China on a Stratospheric Trajectory So dramatic has been the growth of the state-run company PetroChina that, in mid-2007, it was second only to Exxon Mobil in its market value among energy corporations. Indeed, that year three Chinese companies made it onto the list of the world's ten most highly valued corporations. Only the U.S. had more with five. China's foreign reserves of over $1 trillion have now surpassed Japan's. With its gross domestic product soaring past Germany's, China ranks number three in the world economy. In the diplomatic arena, Chinese leaders broke new ground in 1996 by sponsoring the Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO), consisting of four adjoining countries: Russia and the three former Soviet Socialist republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The SCO started as a cooperative organization with a focus on countering drug-smuggling and terrorism. Later, the SCO invited Uzbekistan to join, even though it does not abut China. In 2003, the SCO broadened its scope by including regional economic cooperation in its charter. That, in turn, led it to grant observer status to Pakistan, India, and Mongolia -- all adjoining China -- and Iran which does not. When the U.S. applied for observer status, it was rejected, an embarrassing setback for Washington, which enjoyed such status at the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). In early August 2007, on the eve of an SCO summit in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, the group conducted its first joint military exercises, codenamed Peace Mission 2007, in the Russian Ural region of Chelyabinsk. "The SCO is destined to play a vital role in ensuring international security," said Ednan Karabayev, foreign minister of Kyrgyzstan. In late 2006, as the host of a China-Africa Forum in Beijing attended by leaders of 48 of 53 African nations, China left the U.S. woefully behind in the diplomatic race for that continent (and its hydrocarbon and other resources). In return for Africa's oil, iron ore, copper, and cotton, China sold low-priced goods to Africans, and assisted African counties in building or improving roads, railways, ports, hydro-electric dams, telecommunications systems, and schools. "The western approach of imposing its values and political system on other countries is not acceptable to China," said Africa specialist Wang Hongyi of the China Institute of International Studies. "We focus on mutual development." To reduce the cost of transporting petroleum from Africa and the Middle East, China began constructing a trans-Burma oil pipeline from the Bay of Bengal to its southern province of Yunan, thereby shortening the delivery distance now traveled by tankers. This undermined Washington's campaign to isolate Myanmar. (Earlier, Sudan, boycotted by Washington, had emerged as a leading supplier of African oil to China.) In addition, Chinese oil companies were competing fiercely with their Western counterparts in getting access to hydrocarbon reserves in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. "China's oil diplomacy is putting the country on a collision course with the U.S. and Western Europe, which have imposed sanctions on some of the countries where China is doing business," comments William Mellor of Bloomberg News. The sentiment is echoed by the other side. "I see China and the U.S. coming into conflict over energy in the years ahead," says Jin Riguang, an oil-and-gas advisor to the Chinese government and a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Council. China's industrialization and modernization has spurred the modernization of its military as well. The test-firing of the country's first anti-satellite missile, which successfully destroyed a defunct Chinese weather satellite in January 2007, dramatically demonstrated its growing technological prowess. An alarmed Washington had already noted an 18% increase in China's 2007 defense budget. Attributing the rise to extra spending on missiles, electronic warfare, and other high-tech items, Liao Xilong, commander of the People's Liberation Army's general logistics department, said: "The present day world is no longer peaceful and to protect national security, stability and territorial integrity we must suitably increase spending on military modernization." China's declared budget of $45 billion was a tiny fraction of the Pentagon's $459 billion one. Yet, in May 2007, a Pentagon report noted China's "rapid rise as a regional and economic power with global aspirations" and claimed that it was planning to project military farther afield from the Taiwan Straits into the Asia-Pacific region in preparation for possible conflicts over territory or resources. The Sole Superpower in the Sweep of History This disparate challenge to American global primacy stems as much from sharpening conflicts over natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas, as from ideological differences over democracy, American style, or human rights, as conceived and promoted by Western policy-makers. Perceptions about national (and imperial) identity and history are at stake as well. It is noteworthy that Russian officials applauding the swift rise of post-Soviet Russia refer fondly to the pre-Bolshevik Revolution era when, according to them, Tsarist Russia was a Great Power. Equally, Chinese leaders remain proud of their country's long imperial past as unique among nations. When viewed globally and in the great stretch of history, the notion of American exceptionalism that drove the neoconservatives to proclaim the Project for the New American Century in the late 20th century -- adopted so wholeheartedly by the Bush administration in this one -- is nothing new. Other superpowers have been there before and they, too, have witnessed the loss of their prime position to rising powers. No superpower in modern times has maintained its supremacy for more than several generations. And, however exceptional its leaders may have thought themselves, the United States, already clearly past its zenith, has no chance of becoming an exception to this age-old pattern of history. Dilip Hiro is the author of Secrets and Lies: Operation "Iraqi Freedom" and, most recently, Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the World's Vanishing Oil Resources [13], both published by Nation Books. Copyright 2007 Dilip Hiro -- NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been authorized by the copyright owner. I am making such material available to advance understanding of political, human rights, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues. I believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107 "A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are suffering deeply in spirit, and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at stake." -Thomas Jefferson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jerry Okamura Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 As long as the United States has the nuclear capability it has, with the means to deliver it, there is NO ONE else who can take the throne away. An "if" missile defense is anywhere near as effective as we would like ti to be, NO ONE is going to risk launching a nulcear attack. Now, if the United States is not willing to use its considerable capability, that is another thing entirely.... "Gandalf Grey" <gandalfgrey@infectedmail.com> wrote in message news:46cb2486$0$31637$9a6e19ea@news.newshosting.com... > Tomgram: Dilip Hiro on the Sole Superpower in Decline > > By Tom Engelhardt > Created Aug 20 2007 - 9:32am > > - from TomDispatch [1] > > Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or > headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. > The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and > commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind > American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan. > > So imagine, when President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan arrived in > Washington > a couple of weeks back and promptly described [2] Iran as "a helper and a > solution" for his country, even as President Bush insisted [3] in his > presence: "I would be very cautious about whether or not the Iranian > influence in Afghanistan is a positive force." At almost the same moment, > Iraq's embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki paid an official visit [4] > to Iran, undoubtedly looking for support [5] in case the U.S. turned on > his > government. Maliki "held hands" with Iranian President Mahmoud > Ahmadinejad, > met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, and called for > cooperation. > In response, all President Bush could do was issue a vague threat [6]: "I > will have to have a heart to heart with my friend, the prime minister, > because I don't believe [the Iranians] are constructive.... My message to > him is, when we catch you playing a non-constructive role, there will be a > price to pay." (Later, a National Security Council spokesman had to offer > a > correction, insisting the threat was aimed only at Iran, not Maliki.) > Then, > to add insult to injury, just a week after Bush and Karzai met in > Washington, Ahmadinejad headed for Kabul [7] with a high-ranking Iranian > delegation to pay his respects to the Afghan president "in open defiance > of > Washington's wishes." Think slap in the face. > > What made this little regional diplomatic dance all the more curious was > the > fact that Karzai and Maliki are such weak (and weakening) American-backed > leaders -- Maliki of a government in chaos whose purview hardly extends > beyond the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, and Karzai, sometimes > dubbed the "mayor of Kabul," as head of a government visibly losing > control > over even the modest areas it has ruled. In another age, each would have > been dubbed an American "puppet" and yet, here they were, defying an > American president in search of support from a hated regional power on > whose > curbing Bush has staked what's left of his presidency. > > Meanwhile, the first joint Sino-Russian "military exercise" on Russian > soil > (witnessed by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir > Putin) had barely ended when Putin announced [8] late last week, not from > Russia but from the former Central Asian soviet socialist republic of > Kazakhstan, that "regular long-range air patrols that ended after the > Soviet > Union collapsed" would now be resumed -- and not just over Russian air > space > either. The planes in these patrols are nuclear-armed and "capable [9] of > striking targets deep inside the United States." Think of this as one way > in > which the Russian President, thoroughly irritated with the Bush > administration's decision to implant elements of an American anti-missile > system in Poland and the Czech Republic, was using military symbolism to > reassert his country's right to Great Power status -- a status earned in > recent years, thanks to its enormous energy reserves. All a State > Department > official could say in response was: "If Russia feels as though they want > to > take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying > again, > that's their decision." > > Meanwhile, halfway across the globe, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's > government was reportedly on the verge of announcing a new deal with > Putin's > Russia. Having already purchased Russian jets, helicopters, and whole > plants > [10] to build Kalashnikov assault rifles (in the face of an embargo on > American arms), it would now buy 5,000 [11] advanced Dragunov sniper > rifles. > Again the deploring sounds from Washington were remarkably mild. > > When it comes to discovering regular signs like these of the visible > decline > of American global power, you can actually do this exercise yourself. Just > keep an eye on your daily paper -- or don't bother and instead check out > the > latest piece from Dilip Hiro. British Guardian regular and Middle Eastern > expert, he is the author most recently of Blood of the Earth, The Battle > for > the World's Vanishing Oil Resources [12], which focuses on the changing > relationship between the possession of hydrocarbon reserves and global > power. With the black hole of Iraq sucking all Bush administration efforts > into its vortex, much of the globe seems to have been quietly released to > enhance its power at the expense of the sole superpower. > > -- Tom > > > > The Sole Superpower in Decline: The Rise of a Multipolar World > > by Dilip Hiro > > With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States stood > tall -- militarily invincible, economically unrivalled, diplomatically > uncontestable, and the dominating force on information channels worldwide. > The next century was to be the true "American century," with the rest of > the > world molding itself in the image of the sole superpower. > > Yet, with not even a decade of this century behind us, we are already > witnessing the rise of a multipolar world in which new powers are > challenging different aspects of American supremacy -- Russia and China in > the forefront, with regional powers Venezuela and Iran forming the second > rank. These emergent powers are primed to erode American hegemony, not > confront it, singly or jointly. > > How and why has the world evolved in this way so soon? The Bush > administration's debacle in Iraq is certainly a major factor in this > transformation, a classic example of an imperialist power, brimming with > hubris, over-extending itself. To the relief of many -- in the U. S. and > elsewhere -- the Iraq fiasco has demonstrated the striking limitations of > power for the globe's highest-tech, most destructive military machine. In > Iraq, Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser to two U.S. presidents, > concedes in a recent op-ed, "We are being wrestled to a draw by opponents > who are not even an organized state adversary." > > The invasion and subsequent disastrous occupation of Iraq and the > mismanaged > military campaign in Afghanistan have crippled the credibility of the > United > States. The scandals at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and Guantanamo in Cuba, > along with the widely publicized murders of Iraqi civilians in Haditha, > have > badly tarnished America's moral self-image. In the latest opinion poll, > even > in a secular state and member of NATO like Turkey, only 9% of Turks have a > "favorable view" of the U.S. (down from 52% just five years ago). > > Yet there are other explanations -- unrelated to Washington's glaring > misadventures -- for the current transformation in international affairs. > These include, above all, the tightening market in oil and natural gas, > which has enhanced the power of hydrocarbon-rich nations as never before; > the rapid economic expansion of the mega-nations China and India; the > transformation of China into the globe's leading manufacturing base; and > the > end of the Anglo-American duopoly in international television news. > > Many Channels, Diverse Perceptions > > During the 1991 Gulf War, only CNN and the BBC had correspondents in > Baghdad. So the international TV audience, irrespective of its location, > saw > the conflict through their lenses. Twelve years later, when the Bush > administration, backed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, invaded Iraq, > Al Jazeera Arabic broke this duopoly. It relayed images -- and facts -- > that > contradicted the Pentagon's presentation. For the first time in history, > the > world witnessed two versions of an ongoing war in real time. So credible > was > the Al Jazeera Arabic version that many television companies outside the > Arabic-speaking world -- in Europe, Asia and Latin America -- showed its > clips. > > Though, in theory, the growth of cable television worldwide raised the > prospect of ending the Anglo-American duopoly in 24-hour TV news, not much > had happened due to the exorbitant cost of gathering and editing TV news. > It > was only the arrival of Al Jazeera English, funded by the hydrocarbon-rich > emirate of Qatar -- with its declared policy of offering a global > perspective from an Arab and Muslim angle -- that, in 2006, finally broke > the long-established mold. > > Soon France 24 came on the air, broadcasting in English and French from a > French viewpoint, followed in mid-2007 by the English-language Press TV, > which aimed to provide an Iranian perspective. Russia was next in line for > 24-hour TV news in English for the global audience. Meanwhile, spurred by > Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Telesur, a pan-Latin-American TV channel > based in Caracas, began competing with CNN in Spanish for a mass audience. > > As with Qatar, so with Russia and Venezuela, the funding for these TV news > ventures has come from soaring national hydrocarbon incomes -- a factor > draining American hegemony not just in imagery but in reality. > > Russia, an Energy Superpower > > Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has more than recovered from the > economic chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. > After > effectively renationalizing the energy industry through state-controlled > corporations, he began deploying its economic clout to further Russia's > foreign policy interests. > > In 2005, Russia overtook the United States, becoming the second largest > oil > producer in the world. Its oil income now amounts to $679 million a day. > European countries dependent on imported Russian oil now include Hungary, > Poland, Germany, and even Britain. > > Russia is also the largest producer of natural gas on the planet, with > three-fifths of its gas exports going to the 27-member European Union > (EU). > Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia get 100% of their natural gas > from > Russia; Turkey, 66%; Poland, 58%; Germany 41%; and France 25%. Gazprom, > the > biggest natural gas enterprise on Earth, has established stakes in sixteen > EU countries. In 2006, the Kremlin's foreign reserves stood at $315 > billion, > up from a paltry $12 billion in 1999. Little wonder that, in July 2006 on > the eve of the G8 summit in St Petersburg, Putin rejected an energy > charter > proposed by the Western leaders. > > Soaring foreign-exchange reserves, new ballistic missiles, and closer > links > with a prospering China -- with which it conducted joint military > exercises > on China's Shandong Peninsula in August 2005 -- enabled Putin to deal with > his American counterpart, President George W. Bush, as an equal, not > mincing > his words when appraising American policies. > > "One country, the United States, has overstepped its national boundaries > in > every way," Putin told the 43rd Munich Trans-Atlantic conference on > security > policy in February 2007. "This is visible in the economic, political, > cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations.This is very > dangerous." > > Condemning the concept of a "unipolar world," he added: "However one might > embellish this term, at the end of the day it describes a scenario in > which > there is one center of authority, one center of force, one center of > decision-making.It is a world in which there is one master, one sovereign. > And this is pernicious." His views fell on receptive ears in the capitals > of > most Asian, African, and Latin American countries. > > The changing relationship between Moscow and Washington was noted, among > others, by analysts and policy-makers in the hydrocarbon-rich Persian Gulf > region. Commenting on the visit that Putin paid to long-time U.S. allies > Saudi Arabia and Qatar after the Munich conference, Abdel Aziz Sagar, > chairman of the Gulf Research Center, wrote in the Doha-based newspaper > The > Peninsula that Russia and Gulf Arab countries, once rivals from opposite > ideological camps, had found a common agenda of oil, anti-terrorism, and > arms sales. "The altered focus takes place in a milieu where the Gulf > countries are signaling their keenness to keep all geopolitical options > open, reviewing the utility of the United States as the sole security > guarantor, and contemplating a collective security mechanism that involves > a > host of international players." > > In April 2007, the Kremlin issued a major foreign policy document. "The > myth > about the unipolar world fell apart once and for all in Iraq," it stated. > "A > strong, more self-confident Russia has become an integral part of positive > changes in the world." > > The Kremlin's increasingly tense relations with Washington were in tune > with > Russian popular opinion. A poll taken during the run-up to the 2006 G8 > summit revealed that 58% of Russians regarded America as an "unfriendly > country." It has proved to be a trend. This July, for instance, Major Gen > Alexandr Vladimirov told the mass circulation newspaper Komsolskya Pravada > that war with the United States was a "possibility" in the next ten to > fifteen years. > > Chavez Rides High > > Such sentiments resonated with Hugo Chavez. While visiting Moscow in June > 2007, he urged Russians to return to the ideas of Vladimir Lenin, > especially > his anti-imperialism. "The Americans don't want Russia to keep rising," he > said. "But Russia has risen again as a center of power, and we, the people > of the world, need Russia to become stronger." > > Chavez finalized a $1 billion deal to purchase five diesel submarines to > defend Venezuela's oil-rich undersea shelf and thwart any possible future > economic embargo imposed by Washington. By then, Venezuela had become the > second largest buyer of Russian weaponry. (Algeria topped the list, > another > indication of a growing multipolarity in world affairs.) Venezuela > acquired > the distinction of being the first country to receive a license from > Russia > to manufacture the famed AK-47 assault rifle. > > By channeling some of his country's oil money to needy Venezuelans, Chavez > broadened his base of support. Much to the chagrin of the Bush White > House, > he trounced his sole political rival, Manuel Rosales, in a December 2006 > presidential contest with 61% of the vote. Equally humiliating to the Bush > administration, Venezuela was, by then, giving more foreign aid to needy > Latin American states than it was. > > Following his reelection, Chavez vigorously pursued the concept of forming > an anti-imperialist alliance in Latin America as well as globally. He > strengthened Venezuela's ties not only with such Latin countries as > Bolivia, > Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and debt-ridden Argentina, but also with Iran > and > Belarus. > > By the time he arrived in Tehran from Moscow (via Minsk) in June 2007, the > 180 economic and political accords his government had signed with Tehran > were already yielding tangible results. Iranian-designed cars and tractors > were coming off assembly lines in Venezuela. "[The] cooperation of > independent countries like Iran and Venezuela has an effective role in > defeating the policies of imperialism and saving nations," Chavez declared > in Tehran. > > Stuck in the quagmire of Iraq and lashed by the gusty winds of rocketing > oil > prices, the Bush administration finds its area of maneuver woefully > limited > when dealing with a rising hydrocarbon power. To the insults that Chavez > keeps hurling at Bush, the American response has been vapid. The reason is > the crippling dependence of the United States on imported petroleum which > accounts for 60% of its total consumed. Venezuela is the fourth largest > source of U.S. imported oil after Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia; and > some > refineries in the U.S. are designed specifically to refine heavy > Venezuelan > oil. > > In Chavez's scheme to undermine the "sole superpower," China has an > important role. During an August 2006 visit to Beijing, his fourth in > seven > years, he announced that Venezuela would triple its oil exports to China > to > 500,000 barrels per day in three years, a jump that suited both sides. > Chavez wants to diversify Venezuela's buyer base to reduce its reliance on > exports to the U.S., and China's leaders are keen to diversify their > hydrocarbon imports away from the Middle East, where American influence > remains strong. > > "The support of China is very important [to us] from the political and > moral > point of view," Chavez declared. Along with a joint refinery project, > China > agreed to build thirteen oil drilling platforms, supply eighteen oil > tankers, and collaborate with the state-owned company, Petroleos de > Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), in exploring a new oilfield in the Orinoco Basin. > > China on a Stratospheric Trajectory > > So dramatic has been the growth of the state-run company PetroChina that, > in > mid-2007, it was second only to Exxon Mobil in its market value among > energy > corporations. Indeed, that year three Chinese companies made it onto the > list of the world's ten most highly valued corporations. Only the U.S. had > more with five. China's foreign reserves of over $1 trillion have now > surpassed Japan's. With its gross domestic product soaring past Germany's, > China ranks number three in the world economy. > > In the diplomatic arena, Chinese leaders broke new ground in 1996 by > sponsoring the Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO), consisting of four > adjoining countries: Russia and the three former Soviet Socialist > republics > of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The SCO started as a > cooperative > organization with a focus on countering drug-smuggling and terrorism. > Later, > the SCO invited Uzbekistan to join, even though it does not abut China. In > 2003, the SCO broadened its scope by including regional economic > cooperation > in its charter. That, in turn, led it to grant observer status to > Pakistan, > India, and Mongolia -- all adjoining China -- and Iran which does not. > When > the U.S. applied for observer status, it was rejected, an embarrassing > setback for Washington, which enjoyed such status at the Association of > South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). > > In early August 2007, on the eve of an SCO summit in the Kyrgyz capital of > Bishkek, the group conducted its first joint military exercises, codenamed > Peace Mission 2007, in the Russian Ural region of Chelyabinsk. "The SCO is > destined to play a vital role in ensuring international security," said > Ednan Karabayev, foreign minister of Kyrgyzstan. > > In late 2006, as the host of a China-Africa Forum in Beijing attended by > leaders of 48 of 53 African nations, China left the U.S. woefully behind > in > the diplomatic race for that continent (and its hydrocarbon and other > resources). In return for Africa's oil, iron ore, copper, and cotton, > China > sold low-priced goods to Africans, and assisted African counties in > building > or improving roads, railways, ports, hydro-electric dams, > telecommunications > systems, and schools. "The western approach of imposing its values and > political system on other countries is not acceptable to China," said > Africa > specialist Wang Hongyi of the China Institute of International Studies. > "We > focus on mutual development." > > To reduce the cost of transporting petroleum from Africa and the Middle > East, China began constructing a trans-Burma oil pipeline from the Bay of > Bengal to its southern province of Yunan, thereby shortening the delivery > distance now traveled by tankers. This undermined Washington's campaign to > isolate Myanmar. (Earlier, Sudan, boycotted by Washington, had emerged as > a > leading supplier of African oil to China.) In addition, Chinese oil > companies were competing fiercely with their Western counterparts in > getting > access to hydrocarbon reserves in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. > > "China's oil diplomacy is putting the country on a collision course with > the > U.S. and Western Europe, which have imposed sanctions on some of the > countries where China is doing business," comments William Mellor of > Bloomberg News. The sentiment is echoed by the other side. "I see China > and > the U.S. coming into conflict over energy in the years ahead," says Jin > Riguang, an oil-and-gas advisor to the Chinese government and a member of > the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative > Council. > > China's industrialization and modernization has spurred the modernization > of > its military as well. The test-firing of the country's first > anti-satellite > missile, which successfully destroyed a defunct Chinese weather satellite > in > January 2007, dramatically demonstrated its growing technological prowess. > An alarmed Washington had already noted an 18% increase in China's 2007 > defense budget. Attributing the rise to extra spending on missiles, > electronic warfare, and other high-tech items, Liao Xilong, commander of > the > People's Liberation Army's general logistics department, said: "The > present > day world is no longer peaceful and to protect national security, > stability > and territorial integrity we must suitably increase spending on military > modernization." > > China's declared budget of $45 billion was a tiny fraction of the > Pentagon's > $459 billion one. Yet, in May 2007, a Pentagon report noted China's "rapid > rise as a regional and economic power with global aspirations" and claimed > that it was planning to project military farther afield from the Taiwan > Straits into the Asia-Pacific region in preparation for possible conflicts > over territory or resources. > > The Sole Superpower in the Sweep of History > > This disparate challenge to American global primacy stems as much from > sharpening conflicts over natural resources, particularly oil and natural > gas, as from ideological differences over democracy, American style, or > human rights, as conceived and promoted by Western policy-makers. > Perceptions about national (and imperial) identity and history are at > stake > as well. > > It is noteworthy that Russian officials applauding the swift rise of > post-Soviet Russia refer fondly to the pre-Bolshevik Revolution era when, > according to them, Tsarist Russia was a Great Power. Equally, Chinese > leaders remain proud of their country's long imperial past as unique among > nations. > > When viewed globally and in the great stretch of history, the notion of > American exceptionalism that drove the neoconservatives to proclaim the > Project for the New American Century in the late 20th century -- adopted > so > wholeheartedly by the Bush administration in this one -- is nothing new. > Other superpowers have been there before and they, too, have witnessed the > loss of their prime position to rising powers. > > No superpower in modern times has maintained its supremacy for more than > several generations. And, however exceptional its leaders may have thought > themselves, the United States, already clearly past its zenith, has no > chance of becoming an exception to this age-old pattern of history. > > Dilip Hiro is the author of Secrets and Lies: Operation "Iraqi Freedom" > and, > most recently, Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the World's Vanishing > Oil > Resources [13], both published by Nation Books. > > Copyright 2007 Dilip Hiro > > > > -- > NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which has not > always been authorized by the copyright owner. I am making such material > available to advance understanding of > political, human rights, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues. > I > believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as > provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright > Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107 > > "A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their > spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their > government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are > suffering deeply in spirit, > and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public > debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have > patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning > back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are > at > stake." > -Thomas Jefferson > > > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest God's Debris Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 If you think that's what makes the US "great" maybe so. But more and more all those nukes represent is the way in which we misguidedly spend out money while other areas of the world use their capitol to gain on us economically. The pot of riches is not growing as fast as the number of people taking a cut out of it - at current trends the US is doomed to ever diminishing slices of that pie. Unless you morality is such that you think we should nuke the rest of the world to stop the erosion of our "greatness" you have seen the peak of this empire and can now watch as it slowly fades. On Mon, 27 Aug 2007 18:34:51 -1000, "Jerry Okamura" <okamuraj005@hawaii.rr.com> wrote: >As long as the United States has the nuclear capability it has, with the >means to deliver it, there is NO ONE else who can take the throne away. An >"if" missile defense is anywhere near as effective as we would like ti to >be, NO ONE is going to risk launching a nulcear attack. Now, if the United >States is not willing to use its considerable capability, that is another >thing entirely.... > >"Gandalf Grey" <gandalfgrey@infectedmail.com> wrote in message >news:46cb2486$0$31637$9a6e19ea@news.newshosting.com... >> Tomgram: Dilip Hiro on the Sole Superpower in Decline >> >> By Tom Engelhardt >> Created Aug 20 2007 - 9:32am >> >> - from TomDispatch [1] >> >> Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or >> headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. >> The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and >> commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind >> American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan. >> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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