J
Joe S.
Guest
QUOTE
The Global Realignment: The end of a US-centric world?
a.. The media has recently caught on to the fact that US influence
is in steep decline but still under the mainstream radar is the extent to
which other players such as Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela are stepping into
the vacuum. The US is still the military superpower but it's already sharing
the global influence stage with emerging powers who can move global events
as well or better.
A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and
quickening) as the result of several factors:
a.. The loss of US influence as a result of the Iraq war
b.. A view across the globe resulting from Abu Ghraib and
range of missteps that the US has lost the moral high ground it had enjoyed
for decades
c.. A feeling among global leaders that the US is without a
coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on
itself and has emboldened US adversaries
d.. China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its
re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new
alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America
e.. Russia's recent rise combined with Russian President
Putin's domestic popularity and his reputation for effectively standing up
to the West
f.. The rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the
inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses
g.. A view among key global leaders that the US will be
bogged down in Iraq for many years (a view heightened by significantly by
President Bush's September 13 Iraq speech), thus distracted and unable to
respond effectively to key political moves by the range of international
players
h.. A recognition by the international community that the
Bush Administration not only hasn't been able to deal effectively with
non-state actors (e.g. terror groups like Al Qaeda) but they are holding
their own or starting to win
As a result of these and other factors, the world, from the
top tier players to fringe nations to isolated political movements and
ideologies, has recognized that a giant vacuum in global power has
formed...and they've been moving to take advantage of it with no resistance
from an essentially powerless US foreign policy establishment. Russia and
China have beaten the US in forming critical energy alliances in Central
Asia, in the Caucasus, in Africa and even in South America. At the recent
APEC Summit, China was the 800 pound gorilla and President Bush was
relegated to "also there" status. In 2007, the US now longer guides the
world...at least two others (Russia and China) exercise power more
effectively than the US. In 2008 and beyond that number may well expand and
many think this may actually stabilize the world.
The Coming Energy Wars
a.. Supply and demand are easy to understand but these most
traditional of influences over energy prices will be just part of the
picture in late 2007 and 2008. Everyone knows that energy costs have
skyrocketed over the past two years as the result of, among other factors,
increased demand by the growing economies of India and China. But supply and
demand are no longer the only factors impacting energy price and security.
The foreign policies of energy producing nations, nationalization of energy
fields, increasing inaccessibility of international oil and gas reserves to
highly efficient US energy companies, the growing use of long-term energy
contracts and control of pipelines will impact future energy availability
and costs. That was clear with Europe last winter. Global Thought leaders
are looking at how the following will impact energy prices and security: 1)
Whether Russia will continue to be less than efficient in its internal
energy development program and ineptly use the energy weapon (e.g., access
to its vast energy resources and the resources of Central Asia) by
threatening energy cut-offs to influence regional politics such as the bids
by Georgia and the Ukraine for NATO membership; 2) whether the throwback (to
the 70?s) trend of using long-term contracts to lock up energy supplies will
put upward pressure on energy costs; 3) whether nations with nationalized
oil and gas fields will increasingly limit access to their energy reserves
by the more efficient major energy companies; 4) whether nations like Turkey
and former Central Asian Soviet republics will increasingly make critical
pipeline decisions with a view of quashing competition. Beyond this, many
global analysts believe China?s no-questions-asked approach to the partners
it chooses could give it a significant advantage, particularly in Africa and
Iran. The one certainty is that the global trends in all these areas will
put increasing pressure on supplies and security of energy resources for the
US and Europe.
Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left
a.. In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine,
naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under
the United States' sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe
Doctrine looks like it could crumble In 2005-2006, Latin American politics
have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in
Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a
near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist
leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba.
Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez
in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will
pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to
align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash
statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing
President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing
trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to
promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining
supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the
US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to
American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in
the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region,
watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States.
The Ascendant Tiger: China's journey to the top
a.. Well-planned, innovative, quiet strategies on the diplomatic,
economic, educational and military fronts are helping China build its power
more quickly and effectively than any other global entity. China is building
a sphere of influence that extends from Asia and Africa to South America.
From the way it negotiates natural resource contracts to its new foreign aid
strategies to its new military alliances, China is usurping power from its
neighbors, the US and Europe. Global Thought believes China's economic
growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and
potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned
nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US
influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global
political power far sooner than anyone has thought. Chinese investment may
in fact resurrect oil production in Iran?Global Thought believes it is
conceivable that China could end up the winner in Iraq also. Indeed, China
at present is more than matching US power as is obvious by its daily GPB
positioning relative to the US. Because many Global Thought leaders believe
the US has no strategy to counter China's rise, watch for China to stay to
the positive side of the US icon from some time to come.
Armageddon Watch: The new arms race
a.. Iran offers to share nuclear technology with its Gulf neighbors
and Russia looks to assist Brazil and Argentina with nuclear
development...plower plants not bombs but how far is the jump to weaponry? A
global arms race has begun. The lesson from Iraq, that a country shouldn't
bluff about having WMDs, is spreading. North Korea and Iran are just the
first to be making practical use of that lesson. The head of the IAEA,
Mohamed El Baradei, estimates that about 40 countries could develop nuclear
weapons. The concern of thought leaders is not, however, that the US or
Russia will be challenged. A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall
into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements
where retaliation is impossible (e.g., no one knows who is responsible
and/or where they live) or there is no deterent (e.g., the perpetrators
believe in Armageddon and welcome retaliation on their hapless and perhaps
unknowing host). Most frighteningly, the goal of some of these players
(e.g., al Qaeda) may specifically be to foment war among two or more nation
states (not where they live) and create a power vacuum in which they can
advance their own global objectives (bin Laden's WTC attack very effectively
drew the US into stirring the Middle East pot, giving Islamists an
opportunity to gain power they could never have created themselves). The
next most significant concern of Global Thought is regional war among
nations possessing the bomb (e.g., Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan). Thought
leaders by a wide margin believe the shattering of the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty, diminishing global stability and the activist
foreign policy of the US over the last 6 years have inched the nuclear genie
further out of the bottle. In recent days, Iran's neighbors (e.g., Saudi
Arabia) have heated up their talk about beginning nuclear programs. Iran
cleverly has now offered to share nuclear technology within the region.
Whether Israeli PM Olmert intentionally let his tongue slip about Israel's
nukes (as a subtle threat) or did it unintentionally, the race appears to be
heating up.
The Next War?
a.. A growing number of writers and analysts, as well as political
leaders, are talking about a wider war (or wars) brewing in the Middle East.
There is more than a little talk of a wider Middle East conflict even as the
US is attempting to exit Iraq and Israel has reached a temporary cease-fire
with the Palestinians. Syrian leader, Bashir al-Assad warned recently that
Israel could attack Syria (which some interpret as an invitation). Various
writers have speculated that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have
adopted Osama bin Laden's strategy of drawing the US into further stirring
the Middle East pot, a move some believe would work to the advantage both of
Iran and Islamists. Jordan?s King Abdullah has warned that in 2007 three
civil wars could erupt in the Middle East (among the Palestinians, Lebanon,
Iraq). Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has started the Israeli Defense
Forces on a course of preparing for the possibility of war with Iran. Some
conservatives in the US are saying that the problem with Iraq is that the US
didn't expand the battlefield far enough (to include Iran and even Saudi
Arabia). And, of course, Islamists are on a roll. Right now, it's perhaps
all speculation but with at least 2 US strike groups in the area, Iraq in
turmoil, Iran moving ahead with its nuclear program, and several nations
(not to mention political movements) on a hair trigger, the old saying that
"Daggers drawn tend to draw blood" needs to be considered. Emerging Issues
will watch as the situation unfolds.
http://www.secure-x-001.net/Secure-...&Site=109&Portal=100&Inline=True&hidetop=true
END QUOTE
The Global Realignment: The end of a US-centric world?
a.. The media has recently caught on to the fact that US influence
is in steep decline but still under the mainstream radar is the extent to
which other players such as Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela are stepping into
the vacuum. The US is still the military superpower but it's already sharing
the global influence stage with emerging powers who can move global events
as well or better.
A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and
quickening) as the result of several factors:
a.. The loss of US influence as a result of the Iraq war
b.. A view across the globe resulting from Abu Ghraib and
range of missteps that the US has lost the moral high ground it had enjoyed
for decades
c.. A feeling among global leaders that the US is without a
coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on
itself and has emboldened US adversaries
d.. China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its
re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new
alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America
e.. Russia's recent rise combined with Russian President
Putin's domestic popularity and his reputation for effectively standing up
to the West
f.. The rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the
inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses
g.. A view among key global leaders that the US will be
bogged down in Iraq for many years (a view heightened by significantly by
President Bush's September 13 Iraq speech), thus distracted and unable to
respond effectively to key political moves by the range of international
players
h.. A recognition by the international community that the
Bush Administration not only hasn't been able to deal effectively with
non-state actors (e.g. terror groups like Al Qaeda) but they are holding
their own or starting to win
As a result of these and other factors, the world, from the
top tier players to fringe nations to isolated political movements and
ideologies, has recognized that a giant vacuum in global power has
formed...and they've been moving to take advantage of it with no resistance
from an essentially powerless US foreign policy establishment. Russia and
China have beaten the US in forming critical energy alliances in Central
Asia, in the Caucasus, in Africa and even in South America. At the recent
APEC Summit, China was the 800 pound gorilla and President Bush was
relegated to "also there" status. In 2007, the US now longer guides the
world...at least two others (Russia and China) exercise power more
effectively than the US. In 2008 and beyond that number may well expand and
many think this may actually stabilize the world.
The Coming Energy Wars
a.. Supply and demand are easy to understand but these most
traditional of influences over energy prices will be just part of the
picture in late 2007 and 2008. Everyone knows that energy costs have
skyrocketed over the past two years as the result of, among other factors,
increased demand by the growing economies of India and China. But supply and
demand are no longer the only factors impacting energy price and security.
The foreign policies of energy producing nations, nationalization of energy
fields, increasing inaccessibility of international oil and gas reserves to
highly efficient US energy companies, the growing use of long-term energy
contracts and control of pipelines will impact future energy availability
and costs. That was clear with Europe last winter. Global Thought leaders
are looking at how the following will impact energy prices and security: 1)
Whether Russia will continue to be less than efficient in its internal
energy development program and ineptly use the energy weapon (e.g., access
to its vast energy resources and the resources of Central Asia) by
threatening energy cut-offs to influence regional politics such as the bids
by Georgia and the Ukraine for NATO membership; 2) whether the throwback (to
the 70?s) trend of using long-term contracts to lock up energy supplies will
put upward pressure on energy costs; 3) whether nations with nationalized
oil and gas fields will increasingly limit access to their energy reserves
by the more efficient major energy companies; 4) whether nations like Turkey
and former Central Asian Soviet republics will increasingly make critical
pipeline decisions with a view of quashing competition. Beyond this, many
global analysts believe China?s no-questions-asked approach to the partners
it chooses could give it a significant advantage, particularly in Africa and
Iran. The one certainty is that the global trends in all these areas will
put increasing pressure on supplies and security of energy resources for the
US and Europe.
Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left
a.. In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine,
naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under
the United States' sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe
Doctrine looks like it could crumble In 2005-2006, Latin American politics
have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in
Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a
near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist
leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba.
Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez
in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will
pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to
align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash
statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing
President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing
trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to
promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining
supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the
US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to
American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in
the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region,
watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States.
The Ascendant Tiger: China's journey to the top
a.. Well-planned, innovative, quiet strategies on the diplomatic,
economic, educational and military fronts are helping China build its power
more quickly and effectively than any other global entity. China is building
a sphere of influence that extends from Asia and Africa to South America.
From the way it negotiates natural resource contracts to its new foreign aid
strategies to its new military alliances, China is usurping power from its
neighbors, the US and Europe. Global Thought believes China's economic
growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and
potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned
nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US
influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global
political power far sooner than anyone has thought. Chinese investment may
in fact resurrect oil production in Iran?Global Thought believes it is
conceivable that China could end up the winner in Iraq also. Indeed, China
at present is more than matching US power as is obvious by its daily GPB
positioning relative to the US. Because many Global Thought leaders believe
the US has no strategy to counter China's rise, watch for China to stay to
the positive side of the US icon from some time to come.
Armageddon Watch: The new arms race
a.. Iran offers to share nuclear technology with its Gulf neighbors
and Russia looks to assist Brazil and Argentina with nuclear
development...plower plants not bombs but how far is the jump to weaponry? A
global arms race has begun. The lesson from Iraq, that a country shouldn't
bluff about having WMDs, is spreading. North Korea and Iran are just the
first to be making practical use of that lesson. The head of the IAEA,
Mohamed El Baradei, estimates that about 40 countries could develop nuclear
weapons. The concern of thought leaders is not, however, that the US or
Russia will be challenged. A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall
into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements
where retaliation is impossible (e.g., no one knows who is responsible
and/or where they live) or there is no deterent (e.g., the perpetrators
believe in Armageddon and welcome retaliation on their hapless and perhaps
unknowing host). Most frighteningly, the goal of some of these players
(e.g., al Qaeda) may specifically be to foment war among two or more nation
states (not where they live) and create a power vacuum in which they can
advance their own global objectives (bin Laden's WTC attack very effectively
drew the US into stirring the Middle East pot, giving Islamists an
opportunity to gain power they could never have created themselves). The
next most significant concern of Global Thought is regional war among
nations possessing the bomb (e.g., Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan). Thought
leaders by a wide margin believe the shattering of the Nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty, diminishing global stability and the activist
foreign policy of the US over the last 6 years have inched the nuclear genie
further out of the bottle. In recent days, Iran's neighbors (e.g., Saudi
Arabia) have heated up their talk about beginning nuclear programs. Iran
cleverly has now offered to share nuclear technology within the region.
Whether Israeli PM Olmert intentionally let his tongue slip about Israel's
nukes (as a subtle threat) or did it unintentionally, the race appears to be
heating up.
The Next War?
a.. A growing number of writers and analysts, as well as political
leaders, are talking about a wider war (or wars) brewing in the Middle East.
There is more than a little talk of a wider Middle East conflict even as the
US is attempting to exit Iraq and Israel has reached a temporary cease-fire
with the Palestinians. Syrian leader, Bashir al-Assad warned recently that
Israel could attack Syria (which some interpret as an invitation). Various
writers have speculated that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have
adopted Osama bin Laden's strategy of drawing the US into further stirring
the Middle East pot, a move some believe would work to the advantage both of
Iran and Islamists. Jordan?s King Abdullah has warned that in 2007 three
civil wars could erupt in the Middle East (among the Palestinians, Lebanon,
Iraq). Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has started the Israeli Defense
Forces on a course of preparing for the possibility of war with Iran. Some
conservatives in the US are saying that the problem with Iraq is that the US
didn't expand the battlefield far enough (to include Iran and even Saudi
Arabia). And, of course, Islamists are on a roll. Right now, it's perhaps
all speculation but with at least 2 US strike groups in the area, Iraq in
turmoil, Iran moving ahead with its nuclear program, and several nations
(not to mention political movements) on a hair trigger, the old saying that
"Daggers drawn tend to draw blood" needs to be considered. Emerging Issues
will watch as the situation unfolds.
http://www.secure-x-001.net/Secure-...&Site=109&Portal=100&Inline=True&hidetop=true
END QUOTE