WORLD SHOULD WORRY ABOUT US' LOOSE NUKES, SAYS PAKI 'EXPERT'

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World should worry about US' 'loose nukes': Pak expert

By Sheela Bhatt in Indraprasth aka New Delhi
Rediff
Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies,
Islamabad, Shireen M Mazari blasted critics who feel that
Pakistan's nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of
terrorists.

Not about Pakistan's nuclear stock, but the world should
worry about Unites States' "loose nukes", she said while
speaking at the 10th Asian Security Conference on 'Asian
Security in the 21st Century'.

Her smartly-drafted paper concerned the threat of nuclear
proliferation among non-state actors in Asia. She strongly
recommended that Pakistan and India needed to be
accommodated within the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty as
nuclear weapon states, which means altering Article IX of
the treaty.

Mazari turned her critical argument against notorious
nuclear proliferator Dr A Q Khan on its head.

"Why should he (Dr Khan) be punished when he did not break
any of Pakistan's international commitments?" She asked.
"Why does nobody talk about his counterparts in other
countries who break the laws of their countries?" she
added.

Mazari stunned the audience when she said, "What wrong did
A Q Khan do? At best he can be charged for corruption."

"Are you going to penalise the US for proliferating to
Israel? Are you going to penalise France for selling
illegally Heavy Water to Israel?" She argued that there is
no ground to offer Dr Khan for interrogation outside
Pakistan.

While arguing about nuclear bombs falling into terrorists'
hands, she said, "That non-state actors -- primarily
terrorists or other groups using violence for their
political ends -- would want to acquire nuclear weapons is
a highly contentious assumption. Let me state at the outset
that in my view non-state actors are not a major concern in
the nuclear proliferation context," she spoke
unambiguously.

Her argument was based on the logic that nuclear weapons
are difficult to manage and given the political agenda of
the non-state actors in question, may have such a
devastating destructive effect that the end for which they
were to be used would be destroyed.

She also said that small nukes still have to be perfected
even by the US in the sense that they want to resume
nuclear testing post-9/11, especially in the context of
such weapons -- as reflected in the Nuclear Posture Review
of 2002.

"Purely from the operational point of view, in the context
of terrorism, the target and victim are separate entities
and destruction of the victim is intended to send a message
to the target. But with the fallout from the use of nuclear
weapons, the separation will be difficult to sustain,"
Mazari said.

"Terrorists are on the move and have a mobile strategic
doctrine. Nuclear weapons are not like guns or other small
conventional arms that can simply be carried around
endlessly," she said.

"So, logic suggests that nuclear weapons will not be a
weapon of choice for terrorists. This is not to say that
other Weapons of Mass Destruction, especially chemical
weapons, as happened in Japan in the 90s (see details
below), do not hold an attraction for terrorist groups,"
Mazari added.

She blamed the US for the manner in which it is carrying on
the global war on terror.

"The terrorists already have access to enough destructive
capability within conventional means, so their need for
nuclear weapons is simply not there. In fact, the manner in
which the US is conducting its global war on terror, with a
focus on a military-centric strategy, is itself creating
increasing space for terrorists across the globe -- instead
of denying them space," Mazari said.

She said if compared to Asian countries it is Russia and
the US who have met with nuclear accidents. She even
praised India's record of nuclear safety. She said,
"Especially post-1998, there have been no reports of major
safety issues within India's nuclear facilities nor of any
theft of material post-2001."

The 44 countries that are recognised as having nuclear
research reactors and whose ratification is required for
the operationalisation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
include 10 countries of Asia except Turkey and Israel.

"Of these 10 states, four, if one counts North Korea, are
nuclear weapon states and another has a substantive nuclear
capability including a large fast breeder and reprocessing
capacity. Barring a few reported incidents of leakage or
radiation in the early stages of the development of some of
these countries' nuclear programmes, no major accident has
occurred in Asia similar to Three Mile Island (US) or
Chernobyl (Russia)," she said.

However, while quoting Indian Parliament records she said
that 147 mishaps or safety-related unusual occurrences were
reported between 1995-1998 in Indian atomic energy plants.
Of these, 28 were of an acute nature and nine of these 28
occurred in the nuclear power installations.

"From my vantage point, this whole cacophony of non-state
actors seeking and acquiring nuclear weapons, that has
arisen from the US and been taken up by its allies is more
a strategy of victimising particular states seen as
untrustworthy in terms of loyalty to the US and its
interests, who are looking to independence in civil nuclear
power capability or who have acquired nuclear weapons
capability," she said.

While speaking of Pakistan's nuclear establishments she
claimed in her paper, "In an effort to allay international
concerns about the safety of its nuclear assets, Pakistan
has periodically briefed local and foreign media as well as
diplomats in detail about its command and control authority
as well as the management structures."

The latest briefing in this connection was held last month
and among the invitees were representatives of the Indian
media and the Indian defence attache based in Islamabad.

So far no other nuclear weapon state has been so open about
its command and control structures, she claimed. She
explained to international audience at the IDSA Conference
how Pakistan has taken enough steps to safeguard its
nuclear establishments.

She said Pakistan's National Command Authority was formally
set up in February 2000. It is responsible for policy
formulation and controls the development and employment
over all strategic nuclear forces and strategic
organisations.

Pakistan also created its Nuclear Regulatory Authority for
civilian nuclear matters in 2001. Mazari said, "It is an
independent authority responsible for licensing of power
plants and registration of all radioactive materials
(including hospital equipment -- beginning with military
hospitals), including imports and disposal, power plants
safety."

Pakistan's Export Control Act 2004 was enacted in September
2004 after four years of extensive inter-ministerial
processes starting 2000.

This Export Control Act does not mention the terrorists
through the explicit use of the term. But, Mazari said, "It
effectively does cover non-state actors through the
preamble and Article I, which lays down the extent of its
application."

"Indian law in this regard mentions non-state
actor/terrorist in its preamble and Section ? 4 (g) & (m),
which defines certain terms used in the act," she added.

Mazari's argument was harshest when she spoke about the US.
"Given the extremists and psychologically disturbed
personnel within the US military -- remember Abu Ghraib --
and the tendency of the US to bring in the private sector
into the management of security, the international
community should have some contingency plan to prevent the
loose nukes incident being repeated again in the US," she
said.

She said sarcastically, referring to President George W
Bush, without mentioning his name, "The danger is even more
acute because religious extremists in the form of born-
again Christians actually hold office in that country."

More at:
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/feb/05usnuke.htm

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