hugo Posted February 24, 2008 Posted February 24, 2008 Massaging the debt numbers: A fiscal house of cards Jun 6, 2007 10:36 AM, By Hembree Brandon Farm Press Editorial Staff Wow! Talk about an Excedrin headache — the news that each U.S. household’s share of the national debt is now at $516,348. Oh, and that’s in addition to the average household’s personal debt of $112,043. Go ahead, take several Excedrins. An analysis by Dennis Cauchon in the newspaper USA Today showed, when adjusting for all the government’s accounting subterfuges, our fiscally profligate Uncle Sammy piled up a $1.3 trillion loss last year. That boosted the total government liability to $59.1 trillion, of which your pro rata share is half a mill-plus. Of that, Cauchon notes, a whopping 85 percent represents unfunded promises for Social Security, Medicare, and other federal retirement programs. And those costs are escalating, which means you’ll be on the hook for even more. To pay off all this debt would require “immediate and permanent” massive increases in federal taxes, or massive cuts in those program benefits, or a combination thereof. More Excedrin? David Walker, who is U.S. Comptroller General — the country’s top accountant — and head of the Government Accounting Office, has for some time been urging people to “wake up before it’s too late” and insist that the government start getting its financial house in order. On a “fiscal wakeup tour” around the country, he’s told everyone who’ll listen that “we’re expecting our grandchildren to pay for this, and that’s absolutely outrageous.” If the “fiscal cancer” isn’t treated, Walker says, “it could have catastrophic consequences for our country.” If a private company posted such a dismal financial record, he says,” it would be on the front page of every newspaper in the country.” But because it’s the government, and because it has been spending far more than it takes in for so long, it’s just another ho-hum story. The USA Today article notes that the federal government doesn’t follow modern accounting practices required of corporations and state/local governments, under which expenses are counted immediately when a transaction occurs, even if payment will be made later. Thus, promises for Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlement programs aren’t reflected when the government reports its financial condition. (Compared to that Mt. Everest of debt, farm program expenditures that so offend urbanites and anti-ag groups are a mere speck on the ledger.) The Financial Accounting Standards Advisory Board wants to require the government to use accounting rules similar to those of corporations, but the White House and the Congressional Budget Office are opposed. By 2040, David Walker says, “based on reasonable assumptions, the U.S. government may be doing nothing more than making payments on its massive debt.” Of course our candidates for Prez ain't talking about this. Quote The power to do good is also the power to do harm. - Milton Friedman "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." - James Madison
hugo Posted February 24, 2008 Author Posted February 24, 2008 And so castles made of sand fall into the sea, eventually. ~ Jimi Hendrix Seems to me Ron Paul is the only one willing to even acknowledge the problem. Let's just close our eyes, put all our trust in welfare cases and hope for the best... Peoples jobs are dropping like flies too.. had a buddy call yesterday, inspected houses. Not anymore.. but he's gonna keep trying and start his own inspection business after his boss couldn't afford to pay him and they had a bit of falling out... I just found out too, my families former business, a block plant, sold in the late 80's to some conglomerate, around since the 1940's, closed it's doors.. still know a lot of folks that worked there.. Good paying jobs, crumbled into the sea... If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. ~ Thomas Jefferson. "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists." - Ernest Hemingway Interesting guy here... Welcome to the investment section of my website. First, a few things about me... I used to consider myself Republican, now I know I am a Libertarian. Bush made me one, by forcing me to look at what other Republicans have done through history after his miserable financial and political moves. Liberatarians primarily believe in government as simply a mechanism to provide protection from invading enemies and a very minimal social framework for the Individual to live freely and be judged based on their fruits of labor. For the People, by the People, is my belief of what government should be, not the Socialist Welfare State this country has become. You get the idea of what a Libertarian and I think about government by reading the Bill of Rights and American Constitution, two documents that have been massacred through the years. In my view, the corruption, greed, war, and a large portion of suffering around us is an outgrowth of a bloated socialist state. This state has grown to such cancerous proportions that it's inhabitants are mostly slaves for the state, who siphons an ever larger piece of the fruits of our labour away for the state's own benefit to be redirected at their choosing, usually into the hands of the elite or corporations offering the largest lobbying payouts. The state believes it knows how to best use your money, or time/toil spent acquiring that money, aka your life, for you.... Here's a link to the rest.. Funny, he has Ron Paul at the top.. Kmunk V5 - Kmunk Investment Home He has lots of "bad" things to say... Quite a shame it's the truth.. We have seen our society switched from a manufactoring base where we actualy make physical goods for sale to a service orientated base where we simply swap new money around created by the Fed. Like a drug dealer, the Fed must keep infusing our economy with its next ever larger liquidity fix in order to keep the whole ball rolling. In doing so, money takes on less and less value by it's users (since it has less and less value, aka inflation) and results in turning us all into consumption junkies with debt through the roof who will speculate on anything to make a quick buck. I believe in the inherent good in people. I believe they can govern themselves. I believe if given the chance we will all create a society better then what big government ever can. We will take care of our own poor, we will donate to help victims, we will protect those who need it, we will provide for our family and aging parents, and we will provide for ourselves in retirement. We will also do it MUCH more efficiently meaning we will ultimately, individually and together as society, have MORE. So the question becomes.. What the hell can we, and are we, going to do about it? Any ideas? So the question becomes.. What the hell can we, and are we, going to do about it? Any ideas? The sad part is under either major party we will end up with more unfunded entitlement programs. I don't think anything will happen withou a major crisis to reverse the path to serfdom we have been taking. The sad part is under either major party we will end up with more unfunded entitlement programs. I don't think anything will happen withou a major crisis to reverse the path to serfdom we have been taking. I'm afraid you're right.. They who can do something, don't care. They wont be here to live the hell they create. Plus, they're too busy patting themselves on the back.. Quote The power to do good is also the power to do harm. - Milton Friedman "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." - James Madison
timesjoke Posted February 25, 2008 Posted February 25, 2008 Well, the thing that bothers me is while the liberals are doing what they do, as we expect, the guys claiming to be Conservatives have jumped in bed with the liberals and feel simply slowing down the move to true socialist agendas is good enough. I believe people like Ron Paul make the situation worse because he has to add so much garbage into his great ideas to make everyone draw back from him (sounds like someone else I know). The very idea of a radical makes people avoid them and their most vocal ideas to avoid being branded with the wacko label. Should we make a move to ragain control of this out of control train? Yes. Will we? No, this is why it is a good idea to have portable valuables that have nothing to do with any Nation's currency. I laugh my behind off when I hear people say they are saving their liquid funds in euros or something, like if American funds ever go belly up, their economy will not be torn down too. Oh, and the investment into a few firearms may well be one of the best investments you ever make, if you value your life and property that is. Quote
wez Posted February 25, 2008 Posted February 25, 2008 I don't look forward to a return to the old west and vigilante justice.. Quote
ImWithStupid Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Oh, and the investment into a few firearms may well be one of the best investments you ever make, if you value your life and property that is. and plenty of ammo. A gun without ammo, is a club. Quote
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Can any candidate say their gonna cut taxes? U.S. National Debt Clock CNN.com - CBO: Social Security funds needed to balance books - August 29, 2001 We need to start with cutting foreign aid. Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
ImWithStupid Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Okay I've been trying to absorb this. I guess I'm not that hip on what your getting at. I bought my house for $128,000 in 1996. We owe about $113,000. But the US goverment now says it's worth $240,000. I know I would have to pay a lot more to get another house but wouldn't I be in the black here? The average US household now carries, $112,043 in debt. That's the average debt per household like credit cards, mortgages, car loans, etc... If the US Federal Government's debt were to be split up equally amongst all the households in the US, each household would have to come up with, or pay in taxes, $516,348 for the federal government to break even. Quote
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 The average US household now carries, $112,043 in debt. That's the average debt per household like credit cards, mortgages, car loans, etc... If the US Federal Government's debt were to be split up equally amongst all the households in the US, each household would have to come up with, or pay in taxes, $516,348 for the federal government to break even. Yeah I was just figuring that out . Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Okay I've been trying to absorb this. I guess I'm not that hip on what your getting at. I bought my house for $128,000 in 1996. We owe about $113,000. But the US goverment now says it's worth $240,000. I know I would have to pay a lot more to get another house but wouldn't I be in the black here? Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 I was thinking pesonal debt and the increase home value. Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 And how bad are we compared to the rest of the world? Countries with the highest External National Debt Take two more Excedrin and read this. In what ways can we cure balance of payments deficit? - Yahoo! Answers I think this is where hugo is going. 1. Devalue your currency by a big percentage in one or two or three instalments in quick succession so that foreigners can find your goods cheaper to buy and your exports go up rapidly. 2. With devaluation imports become costlier for your countrymen. As a result they start reducing their imports. 3. You stop taking or renewing short maturity loans from abroad. 4. You allow foreign investment to take place and mostly in the form of equity of companies and not much fresh debt inflows from abroad. 5. Your balance of payments priblem starts getting less severe now. But the process hast be sustained. So now you take policies that will help exports to go up at much faster rate than the imports. 6. To encourage exports you change your customs priocedure, you improve the efficiency of your ports, announce lower taxes on income out of exports. 7. You star privatising the inefficient white elephant public sector companies and allow fresh capacity in investments by private sector without trying to impose conditions of price and distribution controls, liecensing for new plants and capacity. So the forein direct investment and liberated private take their own risks and set up state of the art state technogy based, factories to produce at adequately large scale to be prodece goods that are cost efficuient, of high quality so that not only domestic consumers gain but even foreigners would like to buy your products 8. You start strict budetary control to reduce your budet and fiscal deficits. 9. You allow stoch exchanges and capital markets to become efficient so that investors feel comfortable and allow foreign institutional investors to trade in the shares and debentures of your country's compasnies. 10. You remove inerest ciontrols and private the nationalised/ public sector banks. 11. You allow free markets to operate without Govt. directives and intervention. Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
hugo Posted February 26, 2008 Author Posted February 26, 2008 Actually our trade deficit is quite manageable, Let me requote: An analysis by Dennis Cauchon in the newspaper USA Today showed, when adjusting for all the government’s accounting subterfuges, our fiscally profligate Uncle Sammy piled up a $1.3 trillion loss last year. That boosted the total government liability to $59.1 trillion, of which your pro rata share is half a mill-plus. Of that, Cauchon notes, a whopping 85 percent represents unfunded promises for Social Security, Medicare, and other federal retirement programs. The government has promised the baby boom generation medical and retirement benefits that cannot be met without massive tax increases or massive cuts in benefits and our current candidates for Prez seem to be promising more healthcare benefits. A little info: Rank Country Public debt (% of GDP) Date of Information 1 Zimbabwe 189.90 2007 est. 2 Lebanon 188.00 2007 est. 3 Japan 182.40 2007 est. 4 Seychelles 143.30 2007 est. 5 Jamaica 134.30 2007 est. 6 Italy 105.60 2007 est. 7 Egypt 105.10 2007 est. 8 Sudan 96.90 2007 est. 9 Singapore 95.30 2007 est. 10 Belgium 86.10 2007 est. 11 Sri Lanka 85.90 2007 est. 12 Israel 82.70 2007 est. 13 Greece 81.70 2007 est. 14 Bhutan 81.40 2004 15 Cote d'Ivoire 81.00 2007 est. 16 Hungary 70.20 2007 est. 17 Jordan 67.20 2007 est. 18 France 66.60 2007 est. 19 Portugal 65.80 2007 est. 20 Germany 65.30 2007 est. 21 Canada 64.00 2007 est. 22 Morocco 63.60 2007 est. 23 Philippines 62.30 2007 est. 24 Cyprus 61.50 2007 est. 25 Austria 61.00 2007 est. 26 Uruguay 60.30 2007 est. 27 Mauritius 59.90 2007 est. 28 Ghana 59.60 2007 est. 29 Argentina 59.00 June 2007 est. 30 India 58.80 2007 est. 31 Turkey 58.20 2007 est. 32 Nicaragua 56.20 2007 est. 33 Ethiopia 54.50 2007 est. 34 Tunisia 54.50 2007 est. 35 Colombia 53.90 2007 est. 36 Pakistan 53.80 2007 est. 37 Albania 53.70 2007 est. 38 Panama 53.60 2007 est. 39 Kenya 50.80 2007 est. 40 Switzerland 50.20 2007 est. 41 Netherlands 47.70 2007 est. 42 Costa Rica 47.40 2007 est. 43 Aruba 46.30 2005 44 Bolivia 46.20 2007 est. 45 Croatia 45.60 2007 est. 46 Poland 44.50 2007 est. 47 Brazil 43.90 2007 est. 48 Papua New Guinea 43.70 2007 est. 49 United Kingdom 43.30 2007 est. 50 Vietnam 43.30 2007 est. 51 Malawi 42.20 2007 est. 52 Sweden 41.90 2007 est. 53 Malaysia 41.00 2007 est. 54 Dominican Republic 40.40 2007 est. 55 Serbia 40.00 2007 est. 56 Norway 39.10 2007 est. 57 Bosnia and Herzegovina 39.00 2007 est. 58 El Salvador 38.30 2007 est. 59 Montenegro 38.00 2006 60 Bangladesh 37.90 2007 est. 61 Gabon 37.90 2007 est. 62 Thailand 37.60 2007 est. 63 Syria 37.30 2007 est. 64 Cuba 37.20 2007 est. 65 United States 36.80 2007 est. 66 Spain 35.70 2007 est. 67 Indonesia 35.40 2007 est. 68 Slovakia 34.80 2007 est. 69 Finland 32.90 2007 est. 70 Yemen 32.90 2007 est. 71 Zambia 31.90 2007 est. 72 Czech Republic 31.10 2007 est. 73 Taiwan 31.10 2007 est. 74 South Africa 30.50 2007 est. 75 Ecuador 30.40 2007 est. 76 Honduras 29.30 2007 est. 77 Peru 29.30 2007 est. 78 Bahrain 28.20 2007 est. 79 Iceland 27.70 2007 est. 80 Venezuela 27.00 2007 est. 81 Trinidad and Tobago 26.50 2007 est. 82 Denmark 26.10 2007 est. 83 Macedonia 26.10 2007 est. 84 Slovenia 25.70 2007 est. 85 Moldova 24.60 2007 est. 86 Paraguay 24.60 2007 est. 87 Uzbekistan 24.10 2007 est. 88 Namibia 23.90 2007 est. 89 South Korea 23.80 2007 est. 90 Tanzania 23.60 2007 est. 91 Guatemala 23.30 2007 est. 92 Iran 23.20 2007 est. 93 Qatar 23.20 2007 est. 94 Mexico 23.10 2007 est. 95 Saudi Arabia 22.60 2007 est. 96 Mozambique 22.20 2007 est. 97 Republic of Ireland 21.10 2007 est. 98 Uganda 20.60 2007 est. 99 China 18.90 2007 est. 100 Romania 18.70 2007 est. 101 New Zealand 18.30 2007 est. 102 Bulgaria 18.20 2007 est. 103 Senegal 16.10 2007 est. 104 Gibraltar 15.70 2005 est. 105 Lithuania 15.70 2007 est. 106 Australia 15.20 2007 est. 107 United Arab Emirates 14.80 2007 est. 108 Nigeria 14.80 2007 est. 109 Angola 14.70 2007 est. 110 Cameroon 13.80 2007 est. 111 Hong Kong 12.80 2007 est. 112 Ukraine 12.40 2007 est. 113 Kazakhstan 11.80 2007 est. 114 Algeria 9.70 2007 est. 115 Latvia 8.80 2007 est. 116 Kuwait 7.80 2007 est. 117 Russia 7.00 2007 est. 118 Botswana 6.40 2007 est. 119 Wallis and Futuna 5.60 2004 est. 120 Azerbaijan 5.40 2007 est. 121 Libya 4.80 2007 est. 122 Estonia 3.80 2007 est. 123 Chile 3.60 2007 est. 124 Oman 2.80 2007 est. 125 Equatorial Guinea 2.70 2007 est. 126 Luxembourg 2.60 2007 est. We have a huge economy that is why our debt figures are so big. If you look at Europe and Japan they are in even worse shape than we are. The dollar won't fall much longer. The problem is Keynesian socialism.that has taken hold of the Western world and there will be an international crisis. It took Marxist socialism 75 years before it fell on it's face. Keynesian socialism does not take over the means of production, it is simply a parasite which feeds off capitalism and therefore takes longer before it pushes a nation to a crisis point. I give us about another generation before the crisis really hits. There is going to be a political bloodbath with the old against the young. Quote The power to do good is also the power to do harm. - Milton Friedman "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." - James Madison
hugo Posted February 26, 2008 Author Posted February 26, 2008 I actually prefer these stats on external debt: Rank Countries Amount (top to bottom) #1 Ireland: $7.58 per $1 of GDP #2 Liberia: $7.14 per $1 of GDP #3 S?o Tom? and Pr?ncipe: $5.13 per $1 of GDP #4 United Kingdom: $3.87 per $1 of GDP #5 Guinea-Bissau: $3.36 per $1 of GDP #6 Netherlands: $3.29 per $1 of GDP #7 Belgium: $3.01 per $1 of GDP #8 Switzerland: $3.00 per $1 of GDP #9 Hong Kong: $2.90 per $1 of GDP #10 Austria: $2.05 per $1 of GDP #11 Mauritania: $1.84 per $1 of GDP #12 Burundi: $1.83 per $1 of GDP #13 France: $1.73 per $1 of GDP #14 Sweden: $1.73 per $1 of GDP #15 Denmark: $1.67 per $1 of GDP #16 Portugal: $1.62 per $1 of GDP #17 Spain: $1.61 per $1 of GDP #18 Guyana: $1.53 per $1 of GDP #19 Congo, Democratic Republic of the: $1.52 per $1 of GDP #20 Sudan: $1.52 per $1 of GDP #21 Gambia, The: $1.52 per $1 of GDP #22 Sierra Leone: $1.50 per $1 of GDP #23 Greece: $1.48 per $1 of GDP #24 Germany: $1.44 per $1 of GDP #25 Lebanon: $1.43 per $1 of GDP #26 Norway: $1.40 per $1 of GDP #27 Latvia: $1.39 per $1 of GDP #28 Finland: $1.35 per $1 of GDP #29 Kazakhstan: $1.32 per $1 of GDP #30 Laos: $1.32 per $1 of GDP #31 Estonia: $1.29 per $1 of GDP #32 Qatar: $1.26 per $1 of GDP #33 Italy: $1.17 per $1 of GDP #34 Congo, Republic of the: $1.14 per $1 of GDP #35 Kyrgyzstan: $1.13 per $1 of GDP #36 Belize: $1.10 per $1 of GDP #37 Hungary: $1.08 per $1 of GDP #38 Madagascar: $1.05 per $1 of GDP #39 Bulgaria: $1.01 per $1 of GDP #40 Togo: $0.97 per $1 of GDP #41 Croatia: $0.97 per $1 of GDP #42 Australia: $0.93 per $1 of GDP #43 Jamaica: $0.92 per $1 of GDP #44 Mongolia: $0.91 per $1 of GDP #45 Slovenia: $0.90 per $1 of GDP #46 Bhutan: $0.88 per $1 of GDP #47 Seychelles: $0.88 per $1 of GDP #48 Uruguay: $0.87 per $1 of GDP #49 Nicaragua: $0.86 per $1 of GDP #50 Guinea: $0.86 per $1 of GDP #51 United States: $0.86 per $1 of GDP #52 Moldova: $0.83 per $1 of GDP #53 Zambia: $0.82 per $1 of GDP #54 Marshall Islands: $0.80 per $1 of GDP #55 Cambodia: $0.80 per $1 of GDP #56 Grenada: $0.80 per $1 of GDP #57 Central African Republic: $0.80 per $1 of GDP #58 Dominica: $0.79 per $1 of GDP #59 Saint Kitts and Nevis: $0.79 per $1 of GDP #60 C?te d'Ivoire: $0.78 per $1 of GDP #61 Slovakia: $0.77 per $1 of GDP #62 Rwanda: $0.76 per $1 of GDP #63 Honduras: $0.76 per $1 of GDP #64 Bahrain: $0.76 per $1 of GDP #65 Ukraine: $0.75 per $1 of GDP #66 Ethiopia: $0.75 per $1 of GDP #67 Panama: $0.72 per $1 of GDP #68 Argentina: $0.72 per $1 of GDP #69 Canada: $0.70 per $1 of GDP #70 Israel: $0.70 per $1 of GDP Our external debt is a minor problem compared to the internal debt. Expect Japan, burdened entirely by internal debt, to be the first Keynesian socialist nation to implode. Quote The power to do good is also the power to do harm. - Milton Friedman "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." - James Madison
Old Salt Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Okay I've been trying to absorb this. I guess I'm not that hip on what your getting at. I bought my house for $128,000 in 1996. We owe about $113,000. But the US goverment now says it's worth $240,000. I know I would have to pay a lot more to get another house but wouldn't I be in the black here?Actually, the government may say that it's worth $240K but in reality, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Quote
wez Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 Actually, the government may say that it's worth $240K but in reality, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. And the only way to realize that "gain" is to sell it.. then you have to buy another house just like yours that has also "gained" in value while losing 20-30 thousand in transaction fees.. So in the end, you could sell it, move back into it, and owe another 30 grand.. I don't see the upside. I'd rather be taxed on a house worth 1$.. Quote
snafu Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 ... The government has promised the baby boom generation medical and retirement benefits that cannot be met without massive tax increases or massive cuts in benefits and our current candidates for Prez seem to be promising more healthcare benefits. That?s true. I didn't see the Republicans promising more health care though. And I haven't heard either side talking about tax increases that must be the inevitable. ...We have a huge economy that is why our debt figures are so big. If you look at Europe and Japan they are in even worse shape than we are. The dollar won't fall much longer. The problem is Keynesian socialism.that has taken hold of the Western world and there will be an international crisis. It took Marxist socialism 75 years before it fell on it's face. Keynesian socialism does not take over the means of production, it is simply a parasite which feeds off capitalism and therefore takes longer before it pushes a nation to a crisis point. I give us about another generation before the crisis really hits. There is going to be a political bloodbath with the old against the young. Oh so these are internal debts? And are there countries running in the black? Quote "You can't stop insane people from doing insane things by passing insane laws. That's just insane!" Penn & Teller NEVER FORGOTTEN
ImWithStupid Posted February 26, 2008 Posted February 26, 2008 That’s true. I didn't see the Republicans promising more health care though. And I haven't heard either side talking about tax increases that must be the inevitable. Promising government supplied healthcare isn't the answer. All this will do is take quality healthcare away from the people who have it and make it so everyone has substandard healthcare. Do you really want a government agency deciding whether you are worthy of a particular surgery, or not? I don't. Quote
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