Bird Flue

[Quarky1.0]

I don't know if anyone else has been keeping an eye on what's happening with the bird flue or avian flu. But the other night on tv they had one of the leading scientist from the Center of Disease control on, he is one of the worlds leading authorities regarding the avian flu and he basically said. He has been stock piling food and water to last around six months, and he also went to on to say the virus is showing signs of making the jump from a bird to human virus, to a human to human virus, and if it does it will cause a cascade viral jump, meaning the entire virus world wide will make the jump.

He also said the CDC has been making preparation to stock pile an experimental anti virus, but they don't know if it will work. He also said if the virus does make the jump, a conservative polulation loss is around 50%, with a more likely death rate of around 80-90% of the worlds population. So if the worst case happens, humanity will go from a poluation of around 7 billion, to around 800 million.

Not good, not good at all, if it happens then we are all fucked. He said from the first signs to the begining of the pandemic, will be around 2-3 weeks, in that time if you want to have any hope of survival you need to stock pile as much food and water as possible, arm yourself and close your house up to the outside world. He said the pandemic will be quick, lasting no longer than 4 months, but in that time sociaty will shut down, there will be no power, no runing water, no police, the army will be put on high alert etc etc.

When asked if he was over reacting, he said simply no, it not if its going to happen, but when.

[Skaterdude409]

well they also said that this flu is identical to the one that hit in the early 19th century. i believe it killed 20 million world wide not sure though

[WullieTheRed]

Wasn't that back in the 1980's?

[hopeUslide]

50 % survival rate. Until it mutates, they can't even begin trying to come up with an anti-virus. As you know viruses can be very tricky to stop. The one single ingredient that can transform an anti-viral is interferon. It is extremely expensive, but a bit of interferon can turn 1000 doses of anti-viral into 10,000. The virus can mutate to be transmitted to humans or mutate to be non-effective at all. Stocks have been steadily going up.

HEB around 1.50 three weeks ago 3.30 now

GNBT 2.62 up form 1.07

VICL 5.10 up and down

 

HEB has the interferon, GNBT the capacity to make the vaccines. It is not against the law to die with money in your pocket.

[snafu]

They had something on the Fox News yesterday. They were saying that this could be a pandemic that will reach us possibly in the next year. They say that it has the potential to wipe out half of the American population. But they say the good news is that our birds that we eat are farmed and the infected wild birds should not come into contact with each other. I don

[TheJenn88]

Phreak likes to call it the chicken flu, and then think I'm an idiot when I didn't get what he was talking about (until, after a short moment I realized, oh! biiiiiird flu).

 

As for a pandemic, I don't think that's a likely case. There's simply too much technology at our hands to..(how do I say this delicately).. have the "important" people die. You could probably wipe out 50% of the global population just by eliminating no-name non-contributors in 3rd world countries, which is where it will be most likely to occur massively considering their living conditions.

 

then again, I say that hesitantly, as the world's economy is heavily dependant on cheap labour from Asia.

 

Which brings me to an interesting thought: Could the western world survive if some day the asian and african continents (and some central/south american countries) just disappeared? Hmm..

[Vortex]

Phreak likes to call it the chicken flu, and then think I'm an idiot when I didn't get what he was talking about (until, after a short moment I realized, oh! biiiiiird flu).

 

As for a pandemic, I don't think that's a likely case. There's simply too much technology at our hands to..(how do I say this delicately).. have the "important" people die. You could probably wipe out 50% of the global population just by eliminating no-name non-contributors in 3rd world countries, which is where it will be most likely to occur massively considering their living conditions.

 

then again, I say that hesitantly, as the world's economy is heavily dependant on cheap labour from Asia.

 

Which brings me to an interesting thought: Could the western world survive if some day the asian and african continents (and some central/south american countries) just disappeared? Hmm..

 

 

sure...if we can get our head out of our collective ass and not rely on things purchased at , say, walmart!

 

 

Im more scared for my 14 year old bird than i am for myself...but well see....

[hugo]

Who is this leading scientist, Quarky? There will be no pandemic in the Western world. No rational human would come to that conclusion. It was only a hiccup in China.

[Quarky1.0]

Who is this leading scientist, Quarky? There will be no pandemic in the Western world. No rational human would come to that conclusion. It was only a hiccup in China.

 

 

He was part of the CDC's viral immune devision and yes there is no pandemic as of yet, he was talking about the worst case senario.

[sixes]

The world has to end some time. Pleased to meet you ,hope you guessed my name.

[Lethalfind]

I agree with Jenn, there segments of society in this world that we could do without.

Then of course we would have to do those jobs and supply those goods.

 

Last I knew it did not move from human to human except in the case of a caregiver, caring for someone who already had it. Of course they are talking about mutation.

I wonder if some people are more susceptible.

[slip_knot]

Jen says:

As for a pandemic, I don't think that's a likely case

 

Jen its natural to get a couple of flu pandemics every century. You do need to take the threat seriously. There was a pandemic in the early 20th century. More people died of it , than lost their lives in WW1. The next one was mid 20 th century, that was the Spanish flu. I'm not sure how many it killed.

 

We are overdue our next pademic according to "the experts". If the bird flu strain fails to impact, you can be sure something else will take its place.

[Feckless Wench]

If your time's up then your time's up, no point worrying about it.

[DaMan]

Some of the same things were being said about mad cow a few years ago. It never happened.

I do beleive that one day a super virus will hit that will kill off a major portion of the Worlds population. I do not think this bird flue is the one.

Through the course of my lifetime there were a few of these types of overhyped panics by "leading researchers".

I lived through the polio scare, the German Measles scare, the big flu scare in the 70s and again in the 80s that was supposed to kill of most people. In each case there was a respected researcher that went overboard with his analysis causing a panic. In each case a few died, but, no where near what was predicted.

If it happens it happens. Nature has a way of cleansing itself every few 1000 years or so. One of these days some sort of virus or disaster will strike and put us back in the stone age to start over again. Until signs of it happening occur I'm not going to worry about it.

[hopeUslide]

Tuna and powdered milk are to be horded. Hell of a diet. Tuna is full of mercury. If bird flu breaks out, all services will be shut down, for fear of contamination. Would any here volunteer to help the infected? Would any here kill an intruder to keep from being infected?

[sixes]

Some of the same things were being said about mad cow a few years ago. It never happened.

I do beleive that one day a super virus will hit that will kill off a major portion of the Worlds population. I do not think this bird flue is the one.

Through the course of my lifetime there were a few of these types of overhyped panics by "leading researchers".

I lived through the polio scare, the German Measles scare, the big flu scare in the 70s and again in the 80s that was supposed to kill of most people. In each case there was a respected researcher that went overboard with his analysis causing a panic. In each case a few died, but, no where near what was predicted.

If it happens it happens. Nature has a way of cleansing itself every few 1000 years or so. One of these days some sort of virus or disaster will strike and put us back in the stone age to start over again. Until signs of it happening occur I'm not going to worry about it.

I was thinking the same thing but far be it for me to stop the world from freaking out,LOL. Hey everyone ,we are all going to die ,sorry if this changes your long term plans,hehe. Umm what else? yeah... You highschool kids that think the world revolves around you ,you might want to start crying to your EMO bands. muhahahahah

 

For humans are like roaches ,they will never kill us all........

[Lethalfind]

Tuna and powdered milk are to be horded. Hell of a diet. Tuna is full of mercury. If bird flu breaks out, all services will be shut down, for fear of contamination. Would any here volunteer to help the infected? Would any here kill an intruder to keep from being infected?

 

LOL, I'd shoot an intruder whether their infected or not.

[TheJenn88]

Jenn says:

As for a pandemic, I don't think that's a likely case

 

Jenn its natural to get a couple of flu pandemics every century. You do need to take the threat seriously. There was a pandemic in the early 20th century. More people died of it , than lost their lives in WW1. The next one was mid 20 th century, that was the Spanish flu. I'm not sure how many it killed.

 

We are overdue our next pademic according to "the experts". If the bird flu strain fails to impact, you can be sure something else will take its place.

 

Aye, an epidemic or pandemic does seem to occur at certain times in the past. However, a pandemic of 50, 100, 200, 500 or 700 years ago will most likely not have the same impact as a modern pandemic.

 

Par example: the black death killed 1/3 of European population. they were the stronghold of the world at that time. These days, many would agree its north america. Would really 1/3 of North America perish at a virus? That's about 110 000 000 people dying (and I lump USA and Canada together simply because we're all one huge land mass with plenty of business together). I really don't see that sort of a pandemic happening. The funny thing is, quite easily in a place like China or India, 110 000 000 could be wiped out, and we may not notice much of anything.

 

The effects of a pandemic or epidemic will depend largely on where it happens, and it's most likely to happen in a region with a high pop. density and low standards of living.

 

Maybe an epidemic, where it's more regional, like Asia. But I don't think a mass amount of fatalities would ever occur in North America simply because of the resources within our grasp.

 

It could kill 1 million people. But I say, 1 million people out of 6.5 billion? That's hardly anything! We could say the common cold is a pandemic, but no one looks at it that way because it's hardly detremental. The same with 1 million people dying around the world. hardly detremental, so I wouldn't call it a pandemic. The word pandemic seems to be more created around the effect it has, not the amount of people it kills.

[builder]

I still think that the hype surrounding bird flu is simply clever marketting by the company/s involved in producing innoculations.

 

It's simply big business taking advantage of the media through scare tactics to sell masses of drugs that will, in effect, be absolutely useless with a virus that is evolving faster than the boffins can combat it.

 

Say no to innoculations.

 

It's just the Carlyle group again, trying to force products onto an unsuspecting public.

 

They are greedy lying pigs. They don't give a flying fuck whether you live or die.

[snafu]

Here's a really good artical.

 

http://www.science.org.au/nova/090/090key.htm

Flu vaccines are not normally stockpiled because, until a pandemic starts, you don’t know exactly which one to make. But for H5N1, the WHO is recommending that vaccines that are an imperfect match of flu be made because it is seen to be a serious threat. An imperfect vaccine could give some protection, so although you might fall ill, you are unlikely to die from the infection