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What will happen in Iraq after U.S. goes?


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Guest simple_language@yahoo.com
Posted

source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19796266/

 

If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three

developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive

Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern

Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish

north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence

there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

 

That was the conclusion reached in recent "war games" exercises

conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson.

"I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," said Anderson, who

has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But

"it will be ugly."

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Guest Joe S.
Posted

<simple_language@yahoo.com> wrote in message

news:1184652383.370721.200190@o61g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...

> source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19796266/

>

> If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three

> developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive

> Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern

> Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish

> north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence

> there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

>

> That was the conclusion reached in recent "war games" exercises

> conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson.

> "I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," said Anderson, who

> has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But

> "it will be ugly."

>

 

He left out the part about US troops would remain in control of Iraq's oil

fields, leaving the Iraqi factions to fight over nothing.

Guest Jerry Kraus
Posted

On Jul 17, 1:06 am, "simple_langu...@yahoo.com"

<simple_langu...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> source:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19796266/

>

> If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three

> developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive

> Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern

> Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish

> north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence

> there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

>

> That was the conclusion reached in recent "war games" exercises

> conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson.

> "I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," said Anderson, who

> has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But

> "it will be ugly."

 

Probably fairly accurate. At least we won't be actively involve in

combat there.

Posted

In article <f7k3s9722gs@enews4.newsguy.com>, zzpatrick@gmail.com says...

>

>

>simple_language@yahoo.com wrote:

> In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

>

>Wouldn't it have been easier to start here?

 

Never happen.

 

Starting from the south, The Shiite regions are politically unsophisticated.

They don't have the political infrastructure or the knowledge base to form a

viable Government. Even the Immans from the various sects of the Shia do not

agree among themselves so even an Iranian style Theocracy is highly unlikely.

Will probably follow the Afghanistan model with warlords in control of their own

militias staking out a territory and fighting amongst themselves.

 

Central Iraq has the remnants of the Bathist party and the mid level bureaucrats

necessary to form a Government. Those are the insurgents we are currently

fighting. The Shia's would be loath to let the Bathists re-emerge as a viable

political entity and will likely slaughter any who would dare to try. Besides,

they have no money nor source of income to sustain a viable State. At best they

would become another basket case, like the West Bank, and rely on handouts to

even survive.

 

The Kurds in the north have the political savvy, the oil reserves and the desire

to form a separate State. What they don't have is an army capable of fighting

off the Turkish and Iranian invaders who would love to get their hands on all

that oil. Perhaps with a robust American presence and sufficient air power we

could protect the Kurds from invasion. They would, of course, reward us with

access and Halliburton control of their oil fields. THAT just might happen.

 

You know what might have worked a couple of years ago and still has a slim

chance of working now, is a United States of Iraq. It worked for us and it is

worth a try there.

 

The three regions would form their own state with Shias in the south, the Sunnis

in the middle and the Kurds in the North. They would have their own local

government running domestic policy for their region while having a Central

Government in charge of foreign affairs, defense and in control of the oil

resources.

 

It would have a bicameral Congress with one house based on population, the other

with equal representation from each of the States, and a President elected by

popular vote of all Iraqi's.

 

With the power of the purse, the Central Government would be sufficiently strong

to keep the peace and resolve differences between the States. While each of the

ethnic divisions would be free to practice their own religious beliefs in their

own territory.

 

Worth a try, if only we had the time.

 

Tom

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