Chaos Escalates in Pakistan - Govt Soon to Fall ? What THEN ???

[Guest Blackwater]

LAHORE, Pakistan (CNN) -- At least 16 Pakistani soldiers died

Wednesday in an attack on a military convoy in northwestern Pakistan,

an army spokesman told CNN.

 

Pakistani lawyers shout anti-Musharraf slogans in Lahore Wednesday,

protesting an attack on a rally in Islamabad.

 

More than 10 others were wounded in a separate attack near the Afghan

border in North Waziristan, where militants have stepped up attacks in

recent days.

 

Government forces in the region have been battling militants believed

to be linked to the Taliban and al Qaeda.

 

However Reuters reported that on Wednesday Pakistani President Pervez

Musharraf ruled out declaring a state of emergency in the face of

mounting militant violence, according to a government official.

 

Pakistan has been wracked by a series of bombings in the northwest,

after the collapse of a truce between the government and tribal

militants.

 

Attacks since late last week, targeting Pakistani military and police,

have killed at least 79 people, authorities said.

 

Over the weekend 55 people were killed in attacks targeting security

forces.

 

On Sunday an army spokesman said a three-part bomb attack launched on

a joint Pakistani police-army convoy killed 14 people traveling

through the mountainous region near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

 

Later, a suicide bombing at police recruitment lines in Dera Ismail

Khan killed 17 police and recruits, a police official said.

 

On Saturday, 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed by a suicide car bomber

who crashed his car into two army vehicles near Miran Shah, a troubled

tribal area in the volatile North Waziristan region.

 

Militants linked to the Taliban in the area near the Afghan border

said the truce reached with the Pakistani government last September is

off.

 

That deal has been blamed for an increase in attacks on U.S. troops

over the border in Afghanistan, as Taliban fighters were able to

prepare, train, and reconstitute weapons supplies without interference

from the Pakistani government.

 

- - - - -

 

Looks as if things are rapidly falling apart in Pakistan.

The militants have become, well, militant. Someone tried

to rocket Mushariffs plane. Bombings galore, and then there

was the debacle at the Red Mosque.

 

Pakistan is VITAL to US interests at the moment. It is our

one gateway to Afghanistan. If Mushy goes, so does our legal

access to inland central asia. Iran sure as hell won't let

us fly over THEIR country and I doubt India will either

(and it's too far 'round anyway).

 

So what to do ? Likely we won't be able to protect Mushy for

much longer. Either the assassins will finally manage to score

or his own generals will stick a knife in his back. Some of

them may be Taliban/al-Qaida sympathizers. Regardless, there

will be a huge disruption - and the US will lose out. There's

also the minor issue of radicals and Pakistans inventory of

nuclear weapons and components.

 

So if, when, Mushy goes and chaos breaks out the US will

have a limited number of choices. We can back a coalition

of pro-American generals and try to re-establish the

status-quo. May not BE any friendly generals however. We

can simply continue to overfly Pakistani airspace and tell

the new guys to shove it. We can take advantage and bomb

the crap out of the 'tribal areas' harboring most of the

Taliban/al-Qaida organization. We could literally take over

Pakistan (in someones name or for some 'good reason'). OR,

we could call it quits and leave.

 

That final option isn't an option - not now, definitely not

so long as al-Qaida remains powerful and there are nukes in

Pakistan. Even Hillary or Obama couldn't just walk away from

that last one - India would have to pre-emptively nuke the

place before the rads could figure out the launch codes. Then

the fallout would drift into China, which would have to act

in 'self-defense', probably occupy Pakistan, maybe even bits

of northern India.

 

Literally taking over Pakistan ... we can't even control

Afghanistan, with a small fraction of the population. We'd

have to try and install a puppet regime instead, someone to

do the heavy lifting. With the rads around though, that

won't be possible. Many generals may take their batallions

over to the radical side of the street.

 

I would expect commando raids on every know nuclear weapon

and the facilities for building them. However NO country is

going to tell foreigners where they keep ALL of their best

weapons and components. There are plenty of weapons scientists

there too, people who can take a few pounds of raw plutonium

and make functional weapons if given al-Qaida backing. It's

a big dangerous problem.

 

Short term we'll keep cultivating Mushy - but also make as

many contacts amongst his underlings and rivals as possible.

We'll keep trying to find excuses to blast those 'tribal

areas' too. But the good times aren't going to last - and

could literally end tomorrow. We've put all our eggs in

Mushys basket, and when he falls ...