Guest Paul J. Berg Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 ~ From The (Portland) Oregonian - July 18, 2007 In recent elections around the country, Democrats have been pounding Republicans. In Oregon, they took control of both houses of the Legislature and the governor's office and, across a broad range of issues, fulfilled many of their campaign promises. You can credit that electoral success to Democrats' get-out-the-vote efforts, which have registered and motivated higher numbers of new voters than Republicans. But just who are thes Johnny-come-lefties? And will they be a sustaining force in future elections? An analysis of a random sample of 20,000 likely Oregon voters reveals that 1,359 (almost 7 percent) voted in the 2006 general election even though they voted in none of the previous four elections. A comparison shows some startling differences between these new voters and the traditionally defined "likely" voters (those who voted in at least two of the four most recent elections). It turns out these differences include both demographic and psychographic characteristics. That is to say, the profile and motivations of new voters say a lot about whether they were making a one-time appearance or whether they're now in it for the long haul. Among the new Oregon voters in our sample, young people showed up in force. The 18- to 25-year-old segment of voters has traditionally represented just 3 percent of the total in any election, but among these new voters that age group represented 15 percent. The 26- to 39-year-old segment typically has represented about 13 percent of the electorate, but among the new voters it represented 27 percent. Taken together, people younger than 40 represented 43 percent of the new guard. But they're not all Democrats. In fact, although Democrats are recruiting a larger proportion than Republicans (37 percent versus 33 percent), almost as many of these voters are not registering as members of either of the two major parties (31 percent). Is gender a factor? As usual, the typical proportion of male-to-female voters is about 45/55, with longer-living women outnumbering the men. Among new voters, the proportion is 50/50. Political activism appears to be an equal-opportunity activity. So what's motivating these new voters? And what will it take to motivate them in 2008? In May, we conducted a scientific survey regarding voters' perceptions on a variety of issues, including the Oregon Legislature. While our sub-sample of new voters was relatively small (40 out of a sample of 503), their responses were quite different from those of the more typical voters. When asked for favorable or unfavorable impressions of the Legislature, 69 percent of likely voters had favorable comments (25 percent negative and the rest neutral), with the three most frequently cited favorable issues being school funding (18 percent), higher education funding (16 percent) and environmental issues (13 percent). In contrast, the three most frequently cited positive legislative issues for new voters were gay rights (22 percent), higher education (15 percent) and the "rainy day fund" (13 percent). It has been widely reported that national issues have had a significant impact on local turnout, and it's anyone's guess as to what the motivating issues may be in 2008. But the impact of these new voters on the legislative and initiative landscape in Oregon has the potential to be substantial. With so many independent and diverse voters entering the mix, Oregon politics may never be the same. ~ Quote
Guest ChrisT Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 On Wed, 18 Jul 2007 08:41:09 -0700, pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: >~ > >From The (Portland) Oregonian - July 18, 2007 > >In recent elections around the country, Democrats have been pounding >Republicans. In Oregon, they took control of both houses of the >Legislature and the governor's office and, across a broad range of >issues, fulfilled many of their campaign promises. > >You can credit that electoral success to Democrats' get-out-the-vote >efforts, which have registered and motivated higher numbers of new >voters than Republicans. But just who are thes Johnny-come-lefties? And >will they be a sustaining force in future elections? > >An analysis of a random sample of 20,000 likely Oregon voters reveals >that 1,359 (almost 7 percent) voted in the 2006 general election even >though they voted in none of the previous four elections. A comparison >shows some startling differences between these new voters and the >traditionally defined "likely" voters (those who voted in at least two >of the four most recent elections). > >It turns out these differences include both demographic and >psychographic characteristics. That is to say, the profile and >motivations of new voters say a lot about whether they were making a >one-time appearance or whether they're now in it for the long haul. > >Among the new Oregon voters in our sample, young people showed up in >force. >The 18- to 25-year-old segment of voters has traditionally represented >just 3 percent of the total in any election, but among these new voters >that age group represented 15 percent. The 26- to 39-year-old segment >typically has represented about 13 percent of the electorate, but among >the new voters it represented 27 percent. Taken together, people younger >than 40 represented 43 percent of the new guard. > >But they're not all Democrats. In fact, although Democrats are >recruiting a larger proportion than Republicans (37 percent versus 33 >percent), almost as many of these voters are not registering as members >of either of the two major parties (31 percent). > >Is gender a factor? As usual, the typical proportion of male-to-female >voters is about 45/55, with longer-living women outnumbering the men. >Among new voters, the proportion is 50/50. Political activism appears to >be an equal-opportunity activity. > >So what's motivating these new voters? And what will it take to motivate >them in 2008? In May, we conducted a scientific survey regarding voters' >perceptions on a variety of issues, including the Oregon Legislature. >While our sub-sample of new voters was relatively small (40 out of a >sample of 503), their responses were quite different from those of the >more typical voters. > >When asked for favorable or unfavorable impressions of the Legislature, >69 percent of likely voters had favorable comments (25 percent negative >and the rest neutral), with the three most frequently cited favorable >issues being school funding (18 percent), higher education funding (16 >percent) and environmental issues (13 percent). > >In contrast, the three most frequently cited positive legislative issues >for new voters were gay rights (22 percent), higher education (15 >percent) and the "rainy day fund" (13 percent). > >It has been widely reported that national issues have had a significant >impact on local turnout, and it's anyone's guess as to what the >motivating issues may be in 2008. But the impact of these new voters on >the legislative and initiative landscape in Oregon has the potential to >be substantial. With so many independent and diverse voters entering the >mix, Oregon politics may never be the same. > >~ We can only hope, but from the looks of the polls suggest it is still going to be a marxist style government with all those people standing around with their hand out. Quote
Guest Lobby Dosser Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: > Political activism appears to > be an equal-opportunity activity. > Describing Voting as Political Activism is a real stretch! Quote
Guest Don Homuth Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 On Wed, 18 Jul 2007 20:25:37 GMT, Lobby Dosser <lobby.dosser.mapson@verizon.net> wrote: >pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: > >> Political activism appears to >> be an equal-opportunity activity. >> > >Describing Voting as Political Activism is a real stretch! Think of it as the baseline, from which other activism can grow. Quote
Guest Lobby Dosser Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 Don Homuth <dhomuthoneatcomcast.net> wrote: > On Wed, 18 Jul 2007 20:25:37 GMT, Lobby Dosser > <lobby.dosser.mapson@verizon.net> wrote: > >>pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: >> >>> Political activism appears to >>> be an equal-opportunity activity. >>> >> >>Describing Voting as Political Activism is a real stretch! > > Think of it as the baseline, from which other activism can grow. > Dirt Quote
Guest Jay D. Scott Posted July 18, 2007 Posted July 18, 2007 "Lobby Dosser" <lobby.dosser.mapson@verizon.net> wrote in message news:5Huni.5912$Wh4.154@trndny06... > pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: > >> Political activism appears to >> be an equal-opportunity activity. >> > > Describing Voting as Political Activism is a real stretch! Oh no it's not. Read up, sonny me boy: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/071807C.shtml Quote
Guest Lobby Dosser Posted July 19, 2007 Posted July 19, 2007 "Jay D. Scott" <orderofantihawk@v.gov.de> wrote: > > "Lobby Dosser" <lobby.dosser.mapson@verizon.net> wrote in message > news:5Huni.5912$Wh4.154@trndny06... >> pjberg@webtv.net (Paul J. Berg) wrote: >> >>> Political activism appears to >>> be an equal-opportunity activity. >>> >> >> Describing Voting as Political Activism is a real stretch! > > Oh no it's not. > > Read up, sonny me boy: > > http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/071807C.shtml and? Quote
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