Washington must heed fiscal alarm bell
Published: September 22 2008 18:57 | Last updated: September 22 2008 18:57
What do AIG, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch have in common? Some thought that these companies were too big to fail. They were wrong: all of these companies have either filed for bankruptcy, been "bailed out" by the government, or, owing to the sub-prime crisis, have been acquired. Over the weekend, the US government went one step further, with its proposals for an estimated $700bn (€493bn, ?391bn) bail-out to ease the credit crisis.
The US government truly is too big to fail. However, there are disturbing parallels between the factors that led to the sub-prime crisis and the deteriorating financial condition and fiscal foundation of our federal government. These similarities ought to ring an alarm bell for Congress and the presidential candidates. The question is, will they hear it and wake up?
The first parallel relates to the dangerous disconnect between the parties who benefit from various imprudent practices and those who bear the related risk and ultimately pay the price. In the housing crisis, some originators of unwise mortgages have not paid a price for their actions. In the case of our federal government, politicians have increased spending, expanded government entitlement programmes, and agreed tax cuts without considering their long-term costs.
Second, a lack of transparency facilitated the crisis. Banks and other financial institutions created off-the-books entities so that regulators would find it hard to track the risks to their health. The US federal budget does not reflect the government's huge off-balance sheet and unfunded promises, commitments and contingencies that stood at over $40,000bn at September 30, 2007.
Another similarity has been the role of credit rating agencies, which blithely rated securitised mortgage packages without looking at the weaknesses of underlying mortgages. In similar fashion, purchasers of American debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assumed that it was guaranteed by the US government. The resulting expectation gap among foreign investors resulted in their demand that the government make explicit what until then had been only an implicit guarantee. The result is that the US taxpayer now stands behind more than $5,000bn in mortgages. It is too soon to say what the ultimate cost will be to taxpayers.
Finally, while there were private sector and executive branch failures, Congress also bears responsibility. It writes the laws and is charged with oversight of these formerly quasi-governmental entities and regulatory agencies. The sad but simple truth is that our country has strayed a long way from the principles and values that made this nation great. Washington has grown increasingly out of touch and out of control. Personal responsibility and stewardship for our collective future are largely absent in too many government areas. This must change.
Are there lessons from the sub-prime crisis? The answer is yes. The recent actions had to be taken because the government failed to establish an effective regulatory structure in connection with mortgages, derivatives and other securities. Greed was rampant. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac strayed from their original mission, becoming too focused on profit and personal gain rather than their public purpose. Lax oversight was facilitated by powerful Wall Street lobbies and the lobbying of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Beyond the turmoil for banks and homeowners, however, there is a super-sub-prime crisis brewing in Washington. Our fiscal policies have created a disconnect between today's citizens and future taxpayers. Today's taxpayers benefit from high government spending and low taxes, while future generations are expected to pay the bill. Our real challenge is where we are headed on our do-nothing fiscal path.
Washington has charged everything to the nation's credit card - engaging in tax cuts and spending increases without paying for them. Washington's imprudent, unethical and even immoral behaviour is facilitated by a lack of transparency. For example, as of September 30, 2007 the federal government was in a $53,000bn dollar fiscal hole, equal to $455,000 per household and $175,000 per person. This burden is rising every year by $6,600-$9,900 per American. Medicare represents $34,000bn of this deficit and the related Medicare trust fund is set to run dry within 10 years. The Social Security programme is projected to have negative cash flow within about 10 years.
What needs to be done? First, we need leadership from the presidential candidates and members of Congress. We need to re-impose tough budget controls, constrain federal spending, decide which Bush tax cuts will stay, and engage in comprehensive reform of our entitlement, healthcare and tax systems. A bipartisan commission that would make recommendations for an up-or-down vote by Congress would be a positive step to making this a reality.
While the US government is too big to fail, continuing on our current path will have adverse implications for our economy and international standing. The sooner Washington acts, the better. Our country, children and grandchildren deserve no less. In the interim, the government needs to decide how to account for its radical actions in the financial statements for the year to September 30. The Treasury has a responsibility to disclose and account for these costs adequately and the Government Accountability Office has a duty to insist the Treasury does so.
The writer is president and chief executive of the Peter G Peterson Foundation and former Comptroller General of the United States
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
